Demographers generally agree that the rate of global population growth is likely to fall, with population peaking by the end of this century, and then declining. In their 2019 book Empty planet: The shock of global population decline, authors Darrell Bricker & John Ibbitson assert that the challenge the world must face is not of a “population bomb but of a population bust – a relentless, generation-after-generation culling of the human herd”. Even though remarkably contrarian and counterintuitive, this “empty planet” thesis warrants serious consideration.
A study published in the July 2020 issue of The Lancet envisions the world reaching peak population only a few years after 2050, with a substantial decline by the end of the century. Such an outcome would not necessarily lead to negative consequences. Fewer human beings would probably be good for the environment, our climate and food security. Still, a smaller workforce might slow economic growth and increase the support burden falling on those who do work.
Some high-achieving global innovators align with the populist bust thesis. In August 2019, for instance, Elon Musk and Jack Ma, two of the world’s most successful and dynamic innovators, one from the West, the other from the East, converged on an astonishing prediction. Musk opined, “The biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse, not explosion, collapse.” And without equivocation, Ma agrees: “You call it a ‘collapse’, I agree with you.”
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Intuitively, a population bust may seem farfetched. But a global demographic shift that leaves the West (and increasingly the East) ageing and with an insufficient workforce is already apparent. The reverse is almost certainly to be the case in Africa. Global fertility rates are in decline, although this trend is slower in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). And as European & Central Asian populations shrink, that of Africa is expected to continue to grow.
However, the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution (digitisation, artificial intelligence, automation, etc.) may cancel the expected demographic dividend from Africa’s youthful and globally dominant population
UN projections of global population tend to be very reliable. Its 2019 World Population Prospects project global population to grow by 10 per cent to 8.5 billion by 2030. The UN projects its growth to 9.7 billion in 2050, then to 10.9 billion in 2100. The UN expects Africa’s population to reach twice its 2019 level of about 1.1 billion by 2050. Of the nine countries that account for more than half of our world’s projected 2019-2050 population growth, five are African: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt.
As Africa would increasingly account for a greater portion of the global working age population, economists expect a “demographic dividend.” As societies develop, child mortality falls, and families eventually tend to have fewer children. The resulting transition in the population’s age structure leads to a preponderance of the working population (15 to 64 years) versus the dependent (14 years and younger, and 65 years and older) population. This trend tends to increase GDP and generate wealth.
However, the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution (digitisation, artificial intelligence, automation, etc.) may cancel the expected demographic dividend from Africa’s youthful and globally dominant population. In this scenario, a large and preponderantly youthful working-age population may not be a source of wealth.
But the current hype surrounding these supposedly labour-destroying technological advances may be just that. The real issue is, does Africa have sufficient time for an ideal transformation from agrarian subsistence to industrial wealth? If the answer is yes, which opportunities can firms leverage to deploy the potentially favourable global demographic shifts in favour of Africa? How should the continent proceed over the next thirty years to 2050, another fifty years to the end of the 21st century, and thereafter?
Edited & published by the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Business School, Singapore. References in original article viz. https://nbs.ntu.edu.sg/Research/ResearchCentres/CAS/Publications/Documents/NTU-SBF percent20CAS percent20ACI percent20Vol. percent202020-32.pdf
