U.S. president Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865) defined democracy as: «Government of the people, by the people, for the people». The term democracy comes from the Greek language and means “rule by the people”. Does this definition hold true with the elections of 23rd February 2019? If we go by mere fact that voter turn-out was 35.6% (29.3 Million) of the 82 million registered voters then the outcome cannot be classified as a “rule by the people”. It is clear that the poor voter turnout was a result of several factors: voter suppression, voter apathy, or violence. Whatever the reason, it is symptomatic of both a system failure and a citizen’s mistrust of the system. For many voters the system failure was that they were not enamored with a system that threw up two major presidential candidates who they simply could not be bothered to vote for. I met so many people who felt that both the APC and PDP Presidential candidates were not good choices and since they were the front runners it was better if they abstained. So, absenteeism must have been at it’s all time high on the 23rd of February 2019.
The first side effect of the presidential elections is a dent in the psyche of many Nigerians, voters and non-voters alike. Let’s not pretend about this, the fact is that many Nigerians are traumatized by the brazen impunity of politicians and the seeming lukewarm attitude or outright connivance of our law enforcement agents at all levels. For many of those who abstained from voting, their resolve not to vote in subsequent elections has become even stronger. Post elections, many responsible voters have joined the abstainers because a lot of voters feel their votes did not count or where manipulated. It is not relevant whether they are right or wrong, what is important is how they feel and the consequences of that apathy.
The second side effect was that the capital market lost N84 billion within days of the elections. The statistics also shows that a lot of investors converted their investment from equity to fixed income instruments. This shows an aversion for risk and lack of confidence in the macro-economic environment post elections.
The third side effect is that the voltage of tribalism has increased by many notches. This stems from the fact that the politicians turned on the volume in playing the tribal sentiments card during the 2019 elections. Some of the things that were said to pitch voters of one tribe against the other or to intimidate voters of a given tribe are unprintable. The adverse effect of this still lingers on with pockets of post-election skirmishes in the supposed Igbo enclaves in Lagos for example. We have had a lot of venting and counter venting on social media between Yorubas and Igbos. This is not a healthy side effect of an election. It must stop!
The fourth side effect of the elections is the glorification of poverty. The fact that Nigeria has indeed become the poverty capital of the world was clear in the undignified manner politicians threw bags of rice and other victuals at people. In one case civil servants in a state were gathered to hustle for bags of rice thrown at them by their ‘’benevolent’’ benefactors. I simply cannot think of a better way to reinforce poverty in the minds of our “poor” citizens. Such events sadly epitomize the decay in our electoral process because this should clearly be characterized as vote buying.
The fifth side effect of the elections is that the US dollar has dropped against the Naira from about 360/1 the USD now trades for about 355. What is responsible for this? I have always maintained that the rate of the Naira headed south post elections in 2015 majorly because the demand side suffered attrition. The fact is that during the Presidential elections there was a lot of cash dollar in circulation. Let’s not be ostriches, it is an open secret that a lot of election bribes given to INEC officials, policemen, military men and a lot of the under the table expenditure are denominated in USD and mostly cash. So, the BDC’s and FX hawkers “Mallams” were awash with supply of USD and once supply exceeds demand in enough proportion the price drops.
The sixth side effect of the presidential election is the expected emigration of millions of Nigerians for different reasons ranging from fear of economic downturn, to fear of reprisals for supporting a candidate and more.
The seventh and perhaps the most damning side effect is that many Nigerian institutions seem to have lost their independence in the eyes of Nigerians. If you follow the commentaries on social media and other avenues this comes through very strongly. After the elections Nigerians have lost faith in the military, the police and much worse, INEC. INEC is the only institution in the electoral system that does not have a commander in Chief and has the word “Independent” as part of its name but Nigerians, irrespective of political leanings, no longer think they are independent. INEC is fingered for not raising an alarm when its staff were held at gunpoint, raped, killed and intimidated. What kind of organization behaves like that? INEC’s cancellation of elections in several places because of violence instead of setting a new date for elections has set a new precedence of rewarding the violent. Very bizarre is the fact that INEC seeks to conduct elections in certain places after having announced the results. Many commentators also believe that if INEC had simply approved electronic transmission of results from all polling units into INEC’s situation room (which INEC currently has the facilities for) the process would have been less violent and more credible.
It is obvious from these side effects that the electoral system needs urgent reforms. If these reforms are not carried out we should expect voter apathy to increase exponentially come the next elections in 2023.
Ayuli Jemide
