Nigerian Power Sector – Opportunities And Threats

(The Chairman’s Opening Remarks)

I commend the President of King’s College Old Boys Association, Alhaji Kashim Imam for tenaciously holding on to his mandate having won an election that was manifestly free and fair. No fear of annulment!!

Next week, our nation will on June 12, 2019 lament the tragedy of the cancellation of the election of Bashorun M.K.O Abiola as President of our beloved nation on June 12, 1993 – twenty-six years ago. He ended up in solitary confinement for almost five years before paying the supreme sacrifice on July 7, 1998 after allegedly drinking a cup of tea.

Just before the commencement of today’s proceedings, Alhaji Kashim Imam, his Deputy Alhaji Jani Ibrahim and I sat down together to drink tea and coffee. Should anything happen to any of us, you know who to blame!!

As for the matter at hand, NIGERIAN POWER SECTOR OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS, the guest speaker Lolu Adubifa, Managing Director of Lavayo Energy Advisors has delivered a well-researched and thoroughly riveting paper which under normal circumstances would have earned him a distinction. Alas, he is a product of Hyde-Johnson’s House and the best those of us from Harman’s House would concede is “satisfactory”. A mere pass mark.

However, what is beyond doubt is that he has mastered the subject thoroughly and his presentation was excellent notwithstanding the faulty microphone and several power failures.

From King’s College, he proceeded to universities in both the United States and Britain.

Much of what he said reminded me of a similar lecture I attended in Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America. On the podium were two Nobel Prize winners – one was a Professor of Electrical Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the other was a Professor of Petroleum/Geology at Harvard University. Their joint presentation was tagged as “A Case Study of Zimboda” – a country which has thoroughly messed up two of its most critical power sectors – electricity and petroleum/gas, through reckless incompetence combined with endemic corruption to the detriment of its economy, social fabric and security with self-evident consequences for industry, agriculture, employment and virtually everything else. According to them, the brutal systematic failure in the power sector has been replicated in the oil and gas sector of the nation.

By way of contrast, over the same period of twenty years, the US has been able to create twenty million additional jobs and added $47 trillion in wealth.

It is only after listening to Lolu Adubifa that it dawned on me that the country on which the two exceptionally gifted professors based their case study is none other than our beloved Nigeria.

Sadly, the two eminent professors concluded matters by suggesting that in stark reality, not all problems can be solved. That should earn them another Nobel Prize!!

Fortunately, Lolu Adubifa is of a more sanguine disposition. Indeed, he has assured us that even in the midst of the overwhelming ruins of the power sector (generation, transmission and distribution) as well as the oil and gas upstream, midstream and downstream sectors there are still vast opportunities for smart chartered accountants and sleek lawyers to make a killing.

I suspect that he is a convert to the thesis canvased by Professor Edward de Bono of Cambridge University, England that in moments of despair in our search for solutions, the answer is not likely to come from logical linear thinking. Rather, for salvation and rescue we have no choice but to resort to lateral thinking. Professor de Bono has also held faculty positions at the universities of Oxford, London and Harvard.

Maybe that is sufficient justification for us to sacrifice this fine Saturday morning to the lecture delivered by our distinguished speaker who has reinforced our hope for the future of our beloved nation – and by extension, the restoration of King’s College, Lagos to its former glory.

From 1957 to 1963, I was a beneficiary of the core values of the College and I can testify that many of those listed on the “Hall of Fame” roll –  Sir Adetokunbo Ademola (Chief Justice), Sir Samuel Manuwa (Chief Medical Adviser/Surgeon); Sir Louis Mbafeno (Justice of the Supreme Court); Judge Charles Dadi Onyeama, CFR (Justice of the Supreme Court); His Royal Highness Oba Adeyinka Oyekan (Oba of Lagos); Dr. Flavius Abiola Akerele; Chief J.K. Randle (my father);…… spared neither time nor energy to extol the enduring virtues of King’s College and the attributes expected of old boys of the College – hard work, uprightness, patriotism, loyalty, sportsmanship.

After we would have concluded our deliberations on “The Nigerian Power Sector – Opportunities and Threats”, I hope to persuade The President and Deputy President of King’s College Old Boys Association as well as the new Principal of the College (“PKC”), Mr. Andrew Agada; Mr. Yinka Oduntan, the Chairman Parents Teachers Association; Mr. Lolu Adubifa and other old boys who are here (I understand that the students are on mid-term break) to tarry a while in the Assembly Hall so that we can deliberate further and reflect deeply on the crises which have engulfed our nation in various directions and from terrifying dimensions – invasion of herdsmen, banditry, armed robbery, kidnapping, hostage taking, corruption, drug trafficking, sabotage; rigging of elections etc.

Without waiting to be invited, we have a mission – to turn the tide of history. The alternative is a cop out. We may choose to join the rest of Nigeria in their orgy of brutal indifference and subversive inertia. Another option is to lower our expectation and wait for heavens to fall.

However, that would run counter to the exhortation and command in our school song:

“When the call is sounded, we must answer HERE!!”

This is our nation’s defining moment and it is a clarion call by the bugle for heroism in the face of adversity.

It is not sufficient to preach to the nation: “You cannot win the race on a stolen horse.”

Thankfully, Nelson Mandela has provided us with a powerful minimum entry level:

“Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world.”

Of our own free will we must admit that King’s College has conferred on us certain privileges, knowledge, learning and character at public expense. The critical issue is what has the nation received in return?

We cannot dodge our responsibility to reflect critically on the conduct of old boys of King’s College (KCOBs) when they serve at the highest level in the public sector (particularly in politics) or in the private sector.

In the past, it was taken for granted that they would demonstrate patriotism, integrity and selflessness regardless of the temptations/opportunities rather than subscribe to the self-serving lowest common denominator which would provide them with the excuse – everybody else is plundering and shafting the nation so why should they (KCOBs) be any different?

That is opportunism writ large without any regard for the moral compass which the tutors, who dedicated their efforts to turning out excellent Nigerians, laboured so hard to instil in us.

Right now, His Royal Highness Muhammadu Sanusi II, the Emir of Kano, an old boy of King’s College, is virtually under siege. His emirate has been carved up with the creation of four new emirates. Added to this is the threat of deposition. We must not prejudge matters.

Hence, we must urge the President of King’s College Old Boys’ Association to proceed poste-haste to Kano and assure the embattled Emir that we are firmly on the side of justice, transparency, integrity and accountability. His Royal Highness is entitled to the benefit of doubt until the red line is crossed – beyond reasonable doubt.

We cannot insist on or proceed on the basis of guaranteed entitlement. Rather, we must work for it. We cannot be free while millions are oppressed or condemned to ignorance and abject poverty. It was Bob Dylan who delivered the poignant vignette:

“No one is free, even the birds are chained to the sky.”

What Nigeria expects from us (and it is entitled to lay a claim) is redemption by King’s College old boys (and girls) who benefitted massively before chaos and anarchy invaded our nation.

As far back as 1960 (when I was in the fourth form), Paul G. Hoffman, General Manager, United Nations Special Funds availed us of his definition of an underdeveloped country:

“Everybody knows an underdeveloped country when he sees one. It is a country characterised by poverty, with beggars in the cities, and villagers eking out a bare subsistence in the rural areas.

A country lacking in factories of its own, usually with inadequate supplies of power and light.

It usually has insufficient roads and railroads, insufficient social services, infrastructure and poor communications.

It has few standard hospitals and fewer reputable institutions of higher learning.

Most of its people cannot read or write.

In spite of the prevailing abject poverty of the people, it may have isolated islands of wealth, with a few persons (1% or less) living in “embarrassing luxury””

While Lolu was delivering his thought-provoking lecture, information technology was able to provide us with a live feed of what Alhaji Aliko Dangote, the richest man in Africa was saying (real time!!) on the same subject: “POWER” at the “CBN Going for Growth Consultative Roundtable” hosted by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Godwing Emefiele (it is not true that he is now an Alhaji!! That is fake news.) at the George Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos which is only a short distance from here. While the Governor’s theme was: “Going for Growth”

Alhaji Aliko went straight to the heart of the matter:

“How do you have economic growth without power? So, no power, no growth because without power there can’t be growth.

Egypt increased its electricity by 10 gigawatts, which is equivalent to 10,000 megawatts in 18 months.

In Nigeria, we have been struggling for 18 years without adding 1,000 megawatts and we have spent about three times above Egypt, why?… I think we all need to be concerned about that.

Government needs to encourage non-oil sector growth rather than depending on proceeds from crude oil to pay salaries.

Proceeds from crude oil sale should be for major investment in the country….no business will thrive with business owners generating power themselves.”

I have every reason to believe that Alhaji Aliko subscribes to Thomas Edison’s credo:

“Genius is one per cent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration.”

We can only speculate that if Aliko had attended King’s College, he would have caught up with Bill Gates of Microsoft as the second richest man in the world. Of course, if he had boarded in Harman’s House, he would long ago have surpassed Jeff Bezos of Amazon as the richest man in the world.

What may not be known to all and sundry is that one of my classmates in the Sixth Form was from the North. He had three scholarships simultaneously – one was from his local government council; the second one was from the Northern state government; while the third one was from the federal government of Nigeria. His real name was Olowo (Rich man) but we preferred to call him Alhaji Too Much Money. He confided in some of us that even before he joined us, he was already looking after two wives back home!! For him, writing love letters to girls at Queen’s College, Methodist Girls School or Holy Child College was a complete waste of his time.

While we are still pondering on the genius/perspiration equation, I am tempted to share with you glorious confirmation of the triumph of will over obstacles. I am not at liberty to disclose the surname of the central character. It is sufficient that his first name is Julius and the middle name is Ayo.

He belonged to Mckee-Wright’s House and he really fancied himself as a footballer. Unfortunately, even while he was in the Sixth Form, he was consigned to the Second Eleven. He refused to be discouraged.

Let us flash back to 1958. For almost eight straight years, King’s College was trounced annually by St. Gregory’s College in football. Hence, it was a foregone conclusion that the same result would recur. To make matters worse, the best player in the King’s College line up (left half-back) suffered an injury on the eve of the match. When Julius Ayo who played in the same position in the Second Eleven was announced as the replacement in the dining hall, the booing was deafening. The consensus was that we may just as well have conceded a walk over to St. Gregory’s College instead of exposing our team to humiliation at the mercy of the Obalende wizards who had a reputation for mixing Catholic piety with African voodoo and native juju to score goals (or stop their opponents from scoring).

Indeed, it was P.H. Davies the Principal (Headmaster) of King’s College who overruled the games master and insisted that in the spirit of sportsmanship, the match must go on.

Anyway, when the referee was about to blow the whistle for the match to commence, Julius Ayo was so overwhelmed that he was perspiring profusely with nerves and trying to put on his boots properly that he almost missed the kick-off. However, once the game took off, Julius Ayo was like a lion. He was all over the football pitch at Onikan Stadium – kicking, tackling, passing the ball and mesmerising the St. Gregory’s attack squad as well as confusing their defence line up.

At half time, the score was two goals each. By the time the game was over, King’s College triumphed by four goals to two!! It was an unforgettable experience when King’s College students trooped on to the football pitch to carry Julius Ayo shoulder high. He was undoubtedly the hero of the day and the main architect/engineer of our triumph.

Perhaps I should add that since he was playing at left half-back, he was only expected to defend. However, he somehow managed to score two long range goals which he lobbed into the opponent’s net much to the consternation of the goalkeeper who later confessed that each time Julius hit the ball, he the goalkeeper saw two balls and did not know which one he should attempt to grab.

Anyway, that is not the end of the story. After leaving King’s College, Julius had great difficulty in gaining admission into medical school in Nigeria, Britain or the US. Rather than surrender to despair, he revived his old “can do” spirit. He eventually found his way to a medical school in India. Thereafter, he went for further studies (postgraduate) in Britain before returning to Nigeria to set up a thriving medical practice. Now in his eighties, he lives a quiet life in Anthony Village, Lagos and his triumph on the football pitch is a distant memory. It is his older brother, the boardroom guru and corporate titan who is much more in the public space.

I am tempted to add that his brother, ninety-year-old Dr. Michael Omolayole is a highly respected old boy of St. Gregory’s College.

Two years after we left King’s College, we felt assured that the world was at our feet and not even the sky was the limit. Then on 15^th January 1966 (while I was a student in London), on a Saturday morning like a bolt of lightning, Colonel Kaduna Nzeogwu announced the first military coup with dead pan seriousness:

“Our enemies are the political profiteers, the swindlers, the men (and women!!) in high and low places that seek bribes and demand 10 per cent; those that seek to keep the country divided permanently so that they can remain in office as Ministers or VIPs at least, the tribalists, the nepotists, those that make the country look big for nothing before international circles.”

Since the essence of our meeting in the hallowed (it used to be!!) Assembly Hall of King’s College to ponder on “The State of Our Nation”, we are entitled to reflect on the difference between Nzeogwu’s verdict in 1966 and what prevails now.

On CNN, the Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF) delivered a troubling witness statement: “BANDITRY COULD BE WORSE THAN BOKO HARAM”.

The SGF, Boss Mustapha, has said the Federal Government was dealing with a bigger problem in banditry, which could be worse than Boko Haram.

Mustapha, who spoke in an interview with an online newspaper, Premium Times, said the government was, however, doing everything possible to nip in the bud banditry and other violent crimes in the country.

He said: “We have had incidents of banditry, which have taken a new dimension altogether. It is no more kidnapping just for the sake of it. Kidnapping is becoming a commercial enterprise and the banditry in the north-west, if care is not taken, will be another insurgency because they come in and take territories and declare lordship over those territories and they dare even authorities and securities agencies.

There are many aspects of this crisis that are manifesting, but I can tell you that we have tried as much as possible to deal with them. You can see there is relative calm, even in the southern part of the country. In the south-south, which was a major challenge at the time we came in 2015 but because of the interface, mediation, negotiation and extending a hand of fellowship and assuring people that they are part of Nigeria and they can make claims for which the government is obligated to listen to them, there has been relative peace even with the issues of self-determination as exhibited in South Eastern part of the country.

So much is being done in terms of interface with the governors, with the leadership of the South-East trying to dissuade people from towing that path, which will not be of benefit to anybody.

So as much as possible, in the area of securing the nation, issues of security as they manifest in different dimensions, we are doing as much as humanly possible to ensure we contain it. ‘’Like the President would always give assurances that we would work to avoid the conflicts which are needless, the office of the OSGF has done a lot in that area.

We have tried as much as possible to interface with the traditional rulers being the first respondent in most communities through the National Council of Nigeria Traditional Rulers which is co-chaired by the Ooni of Ife and the Sultan of Sokoto.”

Speaking further, Mustapha said: “When President Buhari assumed office, a substantial part of the local governments in the north-east were under Boko Haram insurgents. As a matter of fact, today I got a new figure that shocked me when the governor of Borno at a meeting mentioned that in 2015, 22 out of 27 local governments in the Borno States were under Boko Haram.

Today, I can tell you not a single of those 22 local governments is under Boko Haram. We are not completely out of the woods yet, but I can tell you substantially all the local governments that used to be under the occupation of the Boko Haram have been liberated.

People have returned to their homes. We still have challenges because of the level of indoctrination that has taken place. They still have some sleeper cells that come alive. What they do is that they look at soft targets.”

A somewhat different verdict was delivered by Ugochukwu Ejinkeonye who lamented tearfully:

“We should just tell ourselves the plain truth; for now, this country has no conscience.”

Ironically, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, the Minister of Transport was caught off guard when he apparently allowed candour to overrule discretion:

“Nigeria is hopeless.”

In a jiffy, the video recording went viral without any strenuous effort to check whether it is genuine or fake.

Even more profoundly disturbing was the judgement delivered by former Court of Appeal President, Justice Ayo Isa Salami

“The war against corruption can only be won if lawyers, judges and politicians mend their ways. It is an open secret that election matters have become a sort of windfall to the legal practitioners engaged in election disputes. The humongous fees being charged by these lawyers in pre- and post-election matters are mostly paid with public funds or taxpayers’ monies, especially where the client is a public office holder who has no right to use such monies to defend his election.”

The judge proceeded to quote Chief Obafemi Awolowo:

“The pursuit of wealth is not a bad thing in itself because without the food and comforts which wealth provides, life will be penurious and drab. But always remember that any wealth accumulated on a selfish basis at the expense of the State in defiance of social justice helps to create a disorganised society in which everybody will eat everybody and no one person can be safe.”

For good measure, the judge could have added as obiter dictum, the resonant observation of:

• ) Seneca, the Roman philosopher, writer, statesman and advisor to Emperor Nero:

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity”

• ) Maya Angelou, American author:

“What you’re supposed to do when you don’t like a thing is change it. if you can’t change it, change the way you think about it. Don’t complain.”

• ) Bruce Lee, actor:

“Don’t fear failure. Not failure, but low aim, is the crime. In great attempts, it is glorious even to fail.”

• ) Albert Einstein, theoretical physicist:

“There are only two ways to live your life: as though nothing is a miracle, or as though everything is a miracle.”

• ) Ambassador Ketil Karlsen, Head of the European Union Delegation to Nigeria

“Nigeria has become a global source and destination for sex trafficking, forced labour, transit and trafficking in human organs.”

Let us conclude matters by recording the efforts one made to convey to our Government those very detailed critical analysis, thorough diagnosis, as well as crucial remedies, regardless of the formidable systemic failure and obstacles, of the mess in both the power sector and the oil and gas sector which were brilliantly articulated by the two professors from Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. It was to no avail. The powers that be were totally indifferent.

Indeed, it was a repeat performance of what prevailed when I attended a similar conference titled the Nigerian Security Summit which took place on August 8, 2014 and was organised by the Huhu Group and the Radcliffe Institute at Harvard University.

In attendance was Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, Colonel (rtd) Sambo Dasuki who was accompanied by his deputy, the erudite Professor Soji Adelaja and the Nigerian ambassador to US, ambassador (Prof.) Adebowale Adefuye. Among the journalists was the cerebral Olusegun Adeniyi, the outstanding Chairman of the Editorial Board of ThisDay newspaper.

The guest lecturer, Professor Robert Rothberg delivered a no holds barred exposition of Nigeria’s security deficit which he predicted would only get worse on account of very grave deficit in the security architecture; poor strategy; obsolete intelligence; mismatch between resources and threats; and the lackadaisical attitude of the Nigerian government who, according to him, appeared to have underestimated the gravity of the inflow of arms from Libya and Syria compounded by the brutal competition between Boko Haram, and numerous other insurgents sweeping across the northern belt of West Africa’s Sahel region. This was well before the emergence of Fulani herdsmen.

Professor Rothberg thoroughly excoriated the Nigerian government. He did not pull any punches. Guess what? Our ambassador and the National Security Adviser in a pathetic and ill-advised attempt to defend the indefensible proceeded to reply. It was waffle. Rather than take all the issues raised with seriousness, Nigeria opted to treat professor Rothberg’s warnings with reckless indifference. The consequences are self-evident.

It was the same story a few years ago when after attending a Global Risk Assessment Conference in Luxemburg, I was amazed by the very poor ranking accorded to our beloved country in terms of security and potential threats. According to the result of the survey conducted amongst investors, security was the number on issue. My firm, J.K. Randle Professional Services sent copies of the survey to the Nigerian government. There was no response. We then came up with the idea of a “Security Summit” which was held on January 27, 2011 at the Eko Hotel & Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos.

All our efforts to persuade the government to take the matters discussed seriously fell on deaf ears even though the National Security Adviser, Late Lt.-General Owoye Andrew Azazi delivered a paper which prompted vigorous response from an enthusiastic audience who were willing to go the extra mile to make their patriotic contribution towards mitigating genuine concerns about the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country.

Alas, nothing was done until the bombs started popping off at the United Nations Headquarters in Abuja on Friday, August 26, 2011, this was in the wake of a dare devil attempt to bomb the Inspector-General of Police on June 16, 2011.

 Bashorun J.K. Randle

Bashorun J.K. Randle is a former
President of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of
Nigeria (ICAN) and former Chairman of KPMG Nigeria and Africa
Region. He is currently the Chairman, J.K. Randle Professional Services.

Email: [email protected]