The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has put some numbers behind youth unemployment in Nigeria and it does not look good, as we have always known. The NBS, in its data, defines a youth as anyone between the ages of 15 and 34. They make up almost 50 percent of the active labour force or one out of every two persons in the country that is of working age and is actively searching for job.
In absolute numbers, there are 44 million youths in the active labour force of 90 million. But only 19.73 million, representing 45 percent of the active youth labour force, are in full time employment. The NBS defines full time employment as anyone who works for more than 40 hours a week, which means that person is fully engaged at work for at least eight hours from Monday to Friday, which are the normal working days.
The other 55 percent of youths in the active labour force are basically hustling. The data shows 11.36 million youths, about 26 percent, work anywhere between 20 hours to 39 hours in a week or less than eight hours are day. Another six million (14 percent) of youths in the active labour force work less than 20 hours a day while seven million youths, representing 16 percent of the active labour force, are sitting at home doing nothing, despite the fact that they are actively searching for job.
The NBS data puts total youth unemployment at 29.7 percent, which is a combination of those who work less than 20 hours a day and those who just do nothing despite wanting to work. If you add the underemployment rate of 26 percent, then what you get is that one out of every two youths in the active labour market is ‘hustling’ or not actively engaged in full time employment. This translates to good number of active youths having valuable time on their hands for mischief if they choose to.
While the current data is bad, what should concern policy makers and the government is the fact that youth unemployment has been growing steadily since 2010, which is as far as the current NBS data goes. However, the growth in youth unemployment has intensified since 2015, fuelled by a weak economic growth and a fast growing population. Youth unemployment has increased from 10.4 percent of the active labour force in the first quarter of 2015 to its current level of 29.7 percent. It has almost tripled in the last three years. This is not surprising considering that the economy contracted in 2016 and is yet to fully recover.
In absolute numbers, the number of youths that the NBS classifies as having ‘nothing to do’ with their time has increase by about six million since the first quarter of 2015 while those who work for less than 20 hours has gone up by about four million. Within the same period, the number of youths in the active labour force also increased by nine million, an indication that almost every youth that joined the active labour force since 2015 has not been able to find a job.
The Nigerian economy looks to have run out of space for youth employment. The economy is not creating enough opportunities for its fast growing population and that has grim implications for the future in a country that has one of the fastest growing and youthful population in the world. The median age of the Nigerian population is estimated at about 18 years with more than half of the population under 30.
The country’s population is growing at an estimated 2.6 percent per annum but economic growth has largely remained below 2.0 percent since 2017 after contracting in 2016. The NBS data puts overall unemployment level 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018. This means youth unemployment level is even higher than the national unemployment level.
It is a reflection of the fact that the economy is not really creating new jobs for the new entrants coming into the labour force. The adults in the labour force are also not retiring or exiting the labour market fast enough, leaving the youths stranded at the edge of the country’s labour market.
Unemployed youths today are going to become the poor adults of tomorrow. They are missing out on the wealth creation period of their life. They are also missing out on gaining the job experience that they need to get better jobs in future. This puts them at a huge disadvantage for gainful employment as adults.
Studies have shown that youth unemployment have long term impact on the wellbeing of the society generally, including future lower pay potential, social maladjustment and even increased cases of mental health as adults. It also affects the future growth potential of the economy leading to lower GDP growth rates.
The youths that will become adults have not acquired the skills and investment needed to increase productivity in the long run. There many negatives of a high youth unemployment rate which is why the country must take it as a serious challenge. High youth unemployment does not only destroy the present but can also negatively impact the future.
But besides youth unemployment, the country has a huge unemployment burden. The NBS data also show there another 25 million people in the labour force who are of employment age but are not interested in working or are not actively seeking to work.
In total, there are 115.49 million Nigerians within the working age population but only 69 million people are in full time employment currently, a net increase of 1.6 million when compared to the 67.95 million that were employed as at June 2015, just about a month after President Buhari was sworn as president.
Another 18.2 million Nigerians, representing 20.2 percent of the country’s workforce are classified as underemployed. Combined, unemployed and the unemployed make up 43.2 percent of the country’s workforce. The country has an unemployment challenge that needs urgent attention but most importantly the youth unemployment is a crisis that is already probably reflected in the high levels of insecurity experienced in the country. The economy needs a return to job creating growth path urgently.
Anthony Osae-Brown
