Mali and an open phase of uncertainties

Mali joined the league of independent francophone countries in September 1960. A country of about 20 million people with a long history of seasonal migration and emigration driven by poverty, conflict, demographic pressure, unemployment, food insecurity and drought. Since independence, Mali had hardly been economically viable.

It is good and desirable for any country to have independence from the clutches of colonial masters. But many scholars believe that it is not the shell of independence that counts; it is the contents namely, economic, social and human. Just like Chad and Niger, Mali is landlocked, mostly desert, thinly populated and desperately poor. Mali is one out of the five immediate neighbors of Nigeria. And anything that happens in Mali- good or bad- has strategic impact either positively or negatively on Nigeria and the West African sub-region.

So, what is happening in Mali? Recently, democracy suffered a devastating blow in the hands of military junta who overthrew the government. It was a sad news. The illegal seizure of power from President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and Prime Minister Boubou Cisse was a red flag to the international community. Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita popularly called “IBK” has since resigned and dissolved parliament, saying his decision to quit became necessary to avoid bloodshed, as reported. A pity, you may say.

But one thing that kept resonating in my mind: Why will any army for that matter resort to the use of force to solve political problems in a democracy? Applying the military component of national power may be ineffective or counterproductive because no military solution could resolve intractable political problems.

In one of my essays in this column, I referred to Carl Von Clausewitz, the Prussian General who wrote in his book On War about the trinity. Clausewitz’s trinity in its most basic component talks about the government, the people and the army. The government is at the apex of the trinity; however, the people constitute the center of gravity of any democratic society.

So, all means available to the government and the army must be used to protect the people against all forms of threats. What happens when government fails its citizens? The unfortunate truth is that governments in many parts of the world do fail their citizens as we have seen today. Failure as a result of government actions creating inefficient outcomes where efficiency would otherwise exist does not call for illegal seizure of power by rebels.

It is known that most conflicts- internal or interstate- has underlying political issues that may spark violence if not nipped in the bud. Whatever the reason for conflict, the military should not interfere in any political problem. Only countries whose armies are neck deep into politics will most likely have their democracies threatened by putschists.

Although, many pundits say that Keita’s removal by the army wasn’t a surprise. I beg to differ but these experts argued that Mali’s political situation has been deteriorating for many years as a result of crisis. According to these gurus, “the situation was ripe for the military to take advantage of. The army is not happy with Keita’s government because they are ill-equipped to fight the jihadists and they have lost many soldiers.

There is communal violence in Mali which was getting out of hand.” But did the channel of communication between the Malian army and the presidency failed? If truly, the army was subordinate to the political class, the former could have used laid down procedures to make its challenges known to the latter instead of embarrassing Africans and the international community with a coup.

The overthrow of Keita may likely open a phase of uncertainties in Mali. Where does the country go from its current status as a state under military rule? Miffed by developments in Mali, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has directed its members to close land and air borders to Mali. The closure of borders by members of ECOWAS has complicated logistics for the mining sector which accounts for 9.7 percent of Mali’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, according to reports.

Furthermore, the ECOWAS said that sanctions meted out against “all the putschists as well as their partners and collaborators will be enforced.” Amid global condemnation, however, the head of the military junta Assimi Goita insisted to rule for 3 years before restoring stability and overseeing a transition to elections in Mali. This is an indication that the military junta is interested in sharing the national cake rather than security of the state.

Methinks security of Mali is vital. President Buhari was quoted as saying that “about two-thirds of the country is occupied by terrorists and it makes common sense to secure the country first rather than pursue individual interests.” Mali has drawn increasing global attention for its simmering jihadist movement as there is a struggle between al Qaeda and members of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

In spite of humanitarian crisis, the apparent support of the coup by a section of the Malian population shows ignorance on their part and distrust for the government. ECOWAS member states are particularly concerned about the consequences which instability poses to the West African sub-region

In fact, public affairs analysts have referred to the West African sub-region as the “new global hotspot for extremism.” This has necessitated France to deploy the military towards solving a problem that was political in Mali. France’s concerns are borne out of severe insecurity occasioned by Jihadi militants and criminal gangs in Mali’s northern region when Keita took office. Since then, the security situation in Mali has deteriorated resulting in major humanitarian crisis.

In spite of humanitarian crisis, the apparent support of the coup by a section of the Malian population shows ignorance on their part and distrust for the government. ECOWAS member states are particularly concerned about the consequences which instability poses to the West African sub-region.

Mali is a poor country by any standard. So, coup is not the way to go because it complicates matter in the immediate and long terms respectively. France and other international agencies have condemned the “unconstitutional change of government” in Mali. The African Union (AU), United Nations (UN), European Union (EU) and China amongst others have opposed the change of government by force and they have advocated for “immediate return to civil rule.” Mali is at the heart of French-led efforts to roll back jihadists in the Sahel, and its neighbors are anxious to avoid the country sliding into chaos.

All said, the crisis in Mali is a clear failure of leadership at the highest level of government. But what is the lesson for Nigeria and other African countries? Good governance is what Nigerians and indeed Africans demand from their leaders. And when a leader is unable to provide good governance for whatever reason, he or she should honorably resign. Such a leader would be highly respected by his people and the international community. An example that comes to mind is the resignation of Japanese President Shinzo Abe who resigns honorably from office due to illness.

A threat to stability in Mali or any other country in the Sahel constitute a risk to the West African subregion. If the security situation in Mali deteriorates further, will the ECOMOG intervene? Which nation will lead ECOMOG at a time when most economies in Africa and particularly the West African sub-region are contracting as a result of coronavirus? Or will Nigeria be collaborating with France to solve the security challenges in Mali? Only time will tell. Thank you!