“Good morning Professor!”
“Good morning to you my brother.” Do you have fuel now? Or, what’s happening in town?”
“Prof, come and see confusion in filling stations as a result of fuel price hikes. Long queues and endless delays. All the Jerry Cans that can be mustered with their owners are in filling stations across the country, while commuters and businesses are struggling to cope with the rising costs of food and other supplies.” “I really pity commuters.”
“Anyway, Aliko Dangote has made history again. He officially announced the commencement of petrol production at the Dangote Refinery. He expressed his gratitude to President Tinubu for permitting the sale of crude oil in Naira. He presented the first sample of the petrol to press.”
“Dangote Refinery is prepared in all respects. What’s in this preparation for Nigeria and Nigerians?” “Nigerians will benefit from Dangote Refinery.” “Are you sure? Because in Nigeria the more you look the less you see.”“I am very sure.” “But there is fuel scarcity across the country.” “Fuel scarcity was a problem in our country before I was born.” “Are you sure?” We have crude oil but fuel is scarce. What is the meaning of this?” “The refinery is now poised to supply an initial 25 million litres of PMS into the domestic market this September. And will subsequently increase this amount to 30 million litres daily from October 2024,” the NMDPRA said.”
“However, Dangote Refinery is producing fuel, it’s the Federal Executive Council that will determine the price in a deregulated market.”
Read also: Petrol scarcity persists despite NNPC’s claim of increased output, product sufficiency
Assorted prices of fuel
“Questions remain. At what price and at what exchange rate? These are two separate questions that can be addressed. I don’t see how this is a benefit for Nigerians. It is just a means to favour Dangote and at best implement subsidy in some backhand manner.”
“Come and see assorted prices across the country for PMS. I can see N890, N950, N1000, N1250 pump prices and so on and so forth.” “What goes up will never come down in Nigeria.” “What were you expecting before?” Upward ever, downward never!”
“Plantain, beans, yam, and rice sellers are concerned about a hike in fuel price.”
“You must have hope.” “Eh, which hope?” But Prof, you told me that “hope is not a strategy.” “Yes, that’s where I still stand.” This price will encourage smuggling across the borders. No way! Nigeria Customs Service has blocked the borders.” “I hear you.”
“Then, there will be no crude oil theft again.” That is top secret, but you can ask Niger Delta guys and security guys.” My hands aren’t in this one. Oil theft may continue at a geometrical pace.” “We will lose forex like crazy.”
“How do we even confirm that Dangote will refine all the crude sold to him? I mean what stops him from buying more crude than he can refine and exporting the remaining? I’m just musing.”
“How do we determine the corresponding amount of refined PMS he should sell locally assuming we can even compel him to sell locally?” The government is on top of the situation!”
“Refining business is a straightforward business.” “Who told you?”You must secure a source for your feedstock and you must find a market. This is basic and this determines what happens in any refinery anywhere in the world. That is the business of refining.
Market forces on the offensive
“Fear this man called Kyari.” But Kyari has told Nigerians that NNPCL has done nothing to sabotage any domestic refinery,” And you believe that implausible story?”
“There is fuel scarcity. People are suffering. As a professor, I wake up every day by 4a.m to go to the filling station to get fuel. For the past two days, I’ve not been able to get fuel.” “Prof, the suffering is too much!”
“Coming from the MD of a company that has 3 refineries and none has worked or refined nothing in the last 20yrs. I think he doesn’t know that importing refined products will sabotage domestic production.”
“I guess we should just accept our fate as a country that can only import refined products, while we just provide crude feedstocks to refineries outside the country.”
“Let NNPCL continue with their Press Release gymnastics but one thing is certain…..” “Nigeria will never import refined petroleum products from elsewhere again.”
There was a press release by a top management staff of NNPCL. So what?
He said “PMS Prices are Determined by Free Market Forces…” According to him, “The market has been deregulated, meaning that petrol prices are now determined by market forces rather than by the government or NNPC Ltd. Additionally, the exchange rate plays a significant role in influencing these prices.” “Rise in the price of fuel has affected prices of goods and services. Almost everything is dependent on fuel.”
“He said Section 205 of the PIA, which established NNPC Ltd., stipulated that petroleum prices were determined by unrestricted free market forces.” “I hope that market forces will not destroy the oil sector in Nigeria. It’s difficult to understand the algorithm of the oil sector failure. Too many losses and debts. Yet, no government refineries are working, and NNPCL refuses to die.”
Read also: Fuel scarcity hits Lagos, motorists hike transport fare by 55%
Strategic manoeuvres
“Who told you this story?” The first set of trucks at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery gantry is ready for loading… “Before I forget, the business tycoon organised a press briefing”
“Our refinery will eliminate all fuel queues in Nigeria” “Our refinery will show the true consumption of Nigeria using our tracker”
“The Dangote refinery has officially commenced the production of petrol. Aliko Dangote said the introduction of naira for crude will reduce the demand for FX by 40 percent”
“Your car engines will last longer’ — Dangote assures Nigerians of quality petrol from the refinery”. He came with a bottle of clean PMS. “Not the coloured and dirty one from Malta”
“Our quality matches that of America and any other country in the world”
“We are ready to start rolling out petrol within the next 48 hours”
“In other nations, what would have happened to the Minister of Petroleum by now or the head of NNPCL?” Nothing!
“What is Mele Kyari saying?”
“We’re not lying; Port Harcourt refinery will start production in August, Kaduna in December” At times a regulator can be economical with the truth in the name of national security.”
“But we have passed the month of August. Or, which August was Kyari referring to?” “God save this country!” Thank you.
