The first test of an effective government is the ability to formulate and implement good policies. Governance is done through the instrumentality of policy design and implementation. Thus, as the Institute for Government (IoG) in the UK puts it, “good government depends on good policymaking.” While good policy-making is not something Nigeria is known for, the situation is worse under President Buhari, who makes decisions based on ideology and wishful thinking rather than on evidence, rationality and reality!
One particular area where President Buhari has always put ideology above evidence is in relation to food policy. Since assuming office in 2015, he has expressed a strong ideological position that Nigeria should be self-sufficient in food production, with the mantra: “We will grow what we eat and eat what we grow.”Consequently, his administration has adopted interventionist and protectionist measures, including subsidising food production and banning food imports.
Last year, in typical fashion, President Buhari ordered the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) not to give a foreign exchange to food importers. As he put it, “… CBN must not give money to import food”, adding that “already about seven states are producing all the rice we need.”
Nigeria’s food policy is based on President Buhari’s wishful thinking. The policy is misguided and can create calamitous outcomes, such as famine or unaffordable food prices that further reduce the disposable incomes and living standards of ordinary Nigerians
Buhari is gung-ho on this issue from a strong ideological standpoint. “Self-sufficiency” and “import substitution” are economic philosophies that date back centuries, and they are based on the idea of restricting imports to protect domestic industries and conserve foreign reserves. But historical evidence shows that the philosophies failed woefully in the countries where they were practised, notably in Latin America. But that historical evidence does not deter President Buhari from harbouring the self-sufficiency ideology.
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In the UK, policymaking is so valued that it is treated as a profession, and a cadre of public servants is created known as “policy professionals.” One of the guiding principles of the policy profession is that policies must be evidence-based, that is, they must be based on sound analysis and judgement. But policies must also be rational, aimed at producing the best possible outcomes, that is, outcomes that increase general welfare. In addition, policies must be realistic, that is, they must reflect realities on the ground.
Unfortunately, the food policy of the Buhari administration is not evidence-based, not rational and not realistic. It is based purely on the president’s strong belief that Nigeria should meet its own food needs locally. Put simply, Nigeria’s food policy is based on President Buhari’s wishful thinking. The policy is misguided and can create calamitous outcomes, such as famine or unaffordable food prices that further reduce the disposable incomes and living standards of ordinary Nigerians. Therefore, Buhari’s ideologically-driven food policy can make Nigerians more miserable.
Consider the evidence. Take rice. Is it true that “about seven states are producing all the rice we need”? The answer is no! Last November, BusinessDay’s Research and Intelligence Unit produced a brilliant report entitled “Nigeria Rice Industry Report”, which showed that, in 2019, rice production was 4.79 million metric tons, while rice consumption was 7 million metric tons. With rice consumption exceeding production by 2.3 million metric tons, how could President Buhari say that Nigeria is “producing all the rice we need”?
Of course, Nigeria is the largest rice producer in Africa, but, with just 4.7mmt in 2019, it lacked far behind relatively smaller countries like Vietnam that produced 27.77mmt or Thailand, 20.34mmt. In 2009, Nigeria published a National Rice Development Strategy that aimed to increase rice production from 4.2mmt in 2008 to 12.85mmt in 2018. Yet, ten years later, Nigeria only increased rice production by 500,000 metric tons above the 2008 level. If Nigeria is good at rice production, why is it still producing just 4.7mmt after nearly 60 years of rice strategies and despite all the Buhari government’s intervention and protection?
The truth, of course, is that no nation can produce all the food it needs with subsistence agriculture. With subsistence farming accounting for 90% rice production, the government is deluding itself in saying that Nigeria can become self-sufficient in producing rice. It is projected that rice consumption would reach 9.3mmt by 2025. How would Nigeria meet that demand locally when it is still producing less than 5mmt in 2020? And can rice production in Nigeria ever match the demand of a growing population, currently at 200m?
Let’s face it, even if Nigeria has comparative advantage in rice production, it certainly doesn’t have the sophistication and the enabling environment. For a start, as I said, subsistence agriculture would take Nigeria nowhere near self-sufficiency. Secondly, the Government’s subsidies and financial support are not reaching those who actually need them. For instance, the real beneficiaries of the CBN’s Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) are not small farmers, who account for over 80% of the country’s agricultural production, but politically-connected rent seekers. Then, thirdly, there is the problem of insecurity that reduces farm production and creates supply shocks, causing huge inflation.
Recently, in a piece entitled “I went below poverty line in 2020” (Vanguard, January 11, 2021), the respected Vanguard columnist Dr Dele Sobowale told a story of a farmer-friend who told him: “Dele, I went below the poverty line in my adult life in 2020.” But why? Well, he had three farms that disappeared in one year. First, Fulani herdsmen destroyed much of the farms; and second, armed bandits and kidnappers invaded the farm area “sending most of his farm labourers (mostly women) scampering for safety.” The impact of insecurity on farming in Nigeria is shockingly ignored by a government that says it is pursuing a policy of self-sufficiency in food production.
Of course, the production challenges apart, the quality of Nigerian rice is poor. This is not a trivial point because food security is not just about the availability of food but about its nutrition value and quality. But most of the rice produced in Nigeria contain impurities and won’t be consumed by anyone who cares about the quality of what they eat, which is why Nigerians prefer foreign brands. Why is it, despite its much-touted rice production prowess, that Nigeria has never won the World’s Best Rice Award, or even come close to winning it?
Yet, despite the above, the Buhari government is banning the imports of rice and other food items. Even those countries that are among the ten largest producers of rice in the world are still importing rice. For instance, the Philippines, which produced 11.73mmt of rice in 2019 against 14.4mmt consumption, was the world’s largest importer of rice in 2019. Buhari’s food import ban is flawed on many fronts. First, it is a protectionist measure that would not increase the efficiency and productivity of food production in Nigeria. Trade liberalisation is the best way to boost competitiveness and productivity. Secondly, Nigeria is short-changing itself in terms of lost tariff revenues by banning food imports. For instance, evidence shows that since the Buhari government started banning rice imports in 2016, smuggled rice has dominated the market. So, while official rice imports have disappeared, denying the government revenues from import duties, smuggled Benin Thai rice is everywhere. As someone pointed out, most of the foreign exchange used to smuggle food items into Nigeria is not sourced from the banks, so CBN forex ban is meaningless.
But the impact of the food import bans on consumers is rising food prices. As smuggled foreign rice products replace legal imports, they push low-quality local rice out of the market, and push up prices. In his piece referred to earlier, Dr Sobowale concluded: “Buhari needs to revisit the issue of food in 2021 to avert looming famine nationwide.”
Of course, Buhari won’t revisit the food policy. He is not interested in facts, reason or experience. Evidence, rationality and reality should shape policy. But not with Buhari. His ideology and wishful thinking trump them all!
