The Chairman of the Nigeria Governor’s Forum, Kayode Fayemi, recently claimed that insurgency has decreased since 2015. It is necessary to examine this claim, given the individual who uttered it. The dataset I examined is from SBM Intelligence, the firm I work for, and given Governor Fayemi’s focus on “insurgency” of the 19 Northern states, I exempted Benue, Kwara and Plateau, all in the North Central. The overall insecurity picture in the 16 states is worsening, not improving.
In Borno, 705 instances of violence were identified between May 2011 and May 2015, while between May 2015 and April 2021, these instances increased sharply to 1,250. In Adamawa, instances increased from 130 under Jonathan, to 178 under Buhari. In both states, fatalities declined, from 18,220 to just over 15,000 in Borno, and from 2,257 to 1,781 in Adamawa. Yobe saw a decrease with 86 cases of violence since May 2015, down from 138 between May 2011 and May 2015. Fatalities reduced from 1,833 to 1,229.
In between May 2011 and May 2015, the 16 states saw a total of 1,702 instances of violence with 27,553 fatalities. This more than doubled from May 2015, with 3,535. The fatalities have also increased to 30,716.
Among the hardest hit states since May 2015 have been Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, and President Buhari’s home state of Katsina. All four states have recorded a ten-fold increase in instances of and fatalities from violence, due to banditry, kidnapping and terrorist activity.
The definition of insurgency is quite relative, technically speaking. However, if one considers the spread of insecurity since 2015, insurgency would feature prominently given how much the country’s premier insurgent – Boko Haram – has gained new territories, debunking the government’s claim of its technical defeat. Conflict reporters Humangle reported in July 2020 that Boko Haram had about 700 fighters in Niger state. As at the time, Niger state was grappling with attacks on Mariga, Rafi and Shiroro LGAs. Today, attacks have spread significantly to previously unaffected areas such as Munya LGA where the military was kicked out of its new base. Boko Haram’s presence has also been confirmed by the state governor, himself a colleague of Fayemi’s, at the Governor’s Forum.
The status of Abuja as a relatively safe refuge has significantly taken a hit. Towards the end of 2020, there were at least two reports that Islamist terrorists are trying to take Abuja. The first warning came from the Nigerian Customs Service, while the other was from AFRICOM, a branch of the US military. In the latter’s warning, it specifically mentioned Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (West Africa) making plays for the North West and Abuja, with the Atlantic (south) being a major goal.
Furthermore, before the Buhari administration, the most high profile mass scale abduction was the Chibok Girls Abduction of April 2014. Since the Buhari administration, there have been at least six of those, beginning with the Dapchi Girls (Yobe) in February 2018. From December 2020 till date, the spate of attacks on educational facilities have increased dramatically with the Kankara Boys Abduction opening an elite industry of mass kidnapping that has engulfed Nigeria’s northern regions. The mastermind of the Kankara Boys Abduction was said to have ties with the Abubakar Shekau faction of Boko Haram.
As of the time of writing this, we were getting news that Abubakar Shekau had committed suicide following a battle, which his faction of Boko Haram lost to the ISWA faction. ISWA owes no allegiances to anyone in Nigeria, so the possibility of the insurgency getting even worse has just gone up a notch.
In summary, claims of a reduction in the insurgency are a distinction without a difference. Incidences of attacks have gone up in Borno and Adamawa, and the reduction in fatalities is only marginal compared to the previous administration. Mass casualties and displacement and also attacks on camps of the internally displaced (in Benue) remain the order of the day. The Chairman of the Governor’s Forum and other elected officials are better served confronting the issues as they are, rather than as they would have the public see them to be.
Nwanze is a partner at SBM Intelligence
