Outrageous! How dare you say the United Nations should run elections in Nigeria, a sovereign state? That’s how some will react to this intervention. But leaving aside the fact that countries often seek United Nations electoral assistance, what’s truly outrageous and utterly shameful is that Nigeria, so-called “Giant of Africa,” cannot conduct free, fair, and credible elections, something less endowed African countries do routinely and successfully.
Last week, on October 1, Nigeria turned 64 as an independent nation. Sadly, it’s 64 years of sham elections and hollow democracy. As John Campbell and Matthew Page said in their book, Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know, “massive election rigging has been characteristic of Nigeria since independence.”
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Some used to say that if the military had not intervened in 1966 and 1983, Nigeria would have become a strong democracy through learning and experience. But Nigeria has had 25 years of uninterrupted civil rule since 1999, with seven presidential elections and countless state and local government polls. Yet, Nigeria’s “democracy” hasn’t matured an iota. Rather, it’s been an endless cycle of deeply flawed and massively rigged elections.
In its annual Democracy Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) consistently classifies Nigeria as a “regime,” not a “democracy.” According to the EIU, Nigeria doesn’t qualify as a “full democracy,” not even a “flawed democracy.” Rather, it’s a “hybrid regime” and only marginally missed being described as an “authoritarian regime.” But why is Nigeria not even a flawed democracy but a hybrid regime? Well, because “elections have substantial irregularities that prevent them from being both free and fair.” Furthermore, its electoral bodies, security agencies, and judiciary are weak, corrupt, and not independent.
Of course, that has been the case in virtually all elections in Nigeria since independence. For instance, when Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, all 36 state governorship elections were held on the same day. However, due to widespread rigging and, of course, judicial activism, eight state governors were removed from office, leading to “off-season” elections, whereby gubernatorial polls in eight states are held on different dates from those of the remaining 28 states. But for the Supreme Court’s unwillingness to remove a sitting president from office, some presidents would have been sacked on the ground of not being validly elected to the office, which nearly happened to President Umaru Yar’Adua, who only scaled through with a startlingly close 4 to 3 majority decision by the Supreme Court in 2007.
“Yet, Nigeria’s “democracy” hasn’t matured an iota. Rather, it’s been an endless cycle of deeply flawed and massively rigged elections.”
Which brings us to Nigeria’s latest sham poll: the Edo State governorship election held on September 21. Now, let me say categorically that I have no vested interest in who is Edo State governor, provided he was elected in a free, fair, transparent, and credible election that reflected the genuine will of the people. Unfortunately, the Edo election was anything but. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Monday Okpedholo, candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, won with 291,667, while Asue Ighodalo, of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, lost with 247,274. But credible independent observers overwhelmingly rejected the results, alleging they were altered during the collation process.
Tom Stoppard, the British playwright, famously said: “It’s not the voting that makes a democracy; it’s the counting.” That was true in the Edo poll. The voting itself was generally peaceful. But while the collation initially went on smoothly, INEC abruptly terminated it and, with the help of security officials, sent journalists, observers, and party agents out of the collation centre. It doesn’t take a genius to know that something fishy was going on. Before the collation was truncated, results from 12 of the 18 local governments showed the PDP candidate was leading by 6,323 votes. But after the collation resumed several hours later, the APC candidate led by 44,393 votes and was declared the winner.
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The reports of the independent observers were damning. Situation Room, a civil society coalition, said several of the results were altered, adding that the poll “lacked credibility.” Yiaga Africa, another reputable election observer, condemned the actions of “biased INEC officials who altered figures during the collation” and “security officials who interfered with the collation process.” Like Situation Room, Yiaga Africa believed there were “significant concerns about the credibility and integrity of the collation process.”
To be sure, all major parties rig elections in Nigeria. It is always competitive rigging, and the winner is the party that controls the electoral body. Thus, in local government elections, the state governor, who controls the state independent electoral body, SIEC, always wins all the local governments for his party. But when it comes to governorship elections, the party that controls the centre can use federal might to capture any state if the stakes are high enough. That’s because the president appoints the INEC chairman as well as the resident electoral commissioners and, truth be told, can manipulate them, not to mention the security agencies.
In September last year, Governor Godwin Obaseki’s party, the PDP, won all 18 local governments in the Edo council poll. Yet, a year later, APC captured the state in the governorship election. Recently, on September 28, Governor Charles Soludo’s party, APGA, won all 21 local governments in the Anambra State council election. Yet, if APC, with its federal might, is determined to win the state’s governorship in 2025, nothing will stop them. Brazen abuse of incumbency and state resources is the singular reason elections are never free and fair in Nigeria.
Which brings us to 2027 and the need for United Nations assistance. Let’s face it, the 2027 presidential election will be a “do-or-die” affair. Bola Tinubu, the buccaneering president, and his hatchet men like Nyesom Wike will do everything to stay in power by hook or crook. But the main opposition parties, stung by the experience of 2023, will take nothing for granted. The situation will be extremely volatile and will call for active international involvement.
Those who take umbrage at the idea of the United Nations helping to safeguard the integrity of the 2027 presidential election should remember that the only free and fair presidential election since 1999, which led to the peaceful transfer of power from one party to another, was conducted under the watchful eye and close vigilance of the world. Never in any previous presidential election in Nigeria did the UN and western countries take such an extraordinary interest as they did in the 2015 presidential election, with minute-by-minute monitoring, intelligence sharing, and pre-emptive public interventions.
Interestingly, leaders of the then-insurgent opposition APC called for international interventions. They shuttled between Washington, London, and Brussels, lobbying western governments to help ensure the will of the people prevailed in the election. However, now in power, APC and its Tinubu-led government will vehemently reject international involvement in the 2027 presidential poll. Yet, if they love Nigeria, they will request United Nations assistance in the crucial election.
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According to the UN, “more than 115 countries have requested and have received United Nations electoral assistance since 1991.” Such assistance includes technical support, organisation and conduct of an electoral process, supervision of elections, and verification of an electoral process. But UN assistance is usually predicated upon a Member State’s request.
Of course, constitutionally, only INEC can conduct presidential and governorship elections in Nigeria. So, the UN cannot replace INEC and directly conduct elections in Nigeria. However, nothing stops Nigeria from requesting other UN assistance, such as technical support, supervision, and verification of the electoral process. 2027 will be a make-or-break year for Nigeria. Tinubu must let the world help avert an Armageddon, as it did in 2015!
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