The coronavirus pandemic is still on the move and Africa is not spared from the devastating effects of the plague. COVID-19, according to medical experts, is a pathogen of high consequences: why? The pandemic is of severe consequences in any community it enters because there is no drug and vaccine to cure the pandemic. It is only the immunity of individuals that can fight this pandemic, according to health experts.
The impact of the coronavirus on humanity are economic and heath areas. Many sons and daughters of Africa are concerned about the strategies being implemented by most African countries to combat the dreaded virus.
A few of Africa’s bright minds have asked whether Africa can afford lockdowns. Some have advocated that Africa must copy best practices in a few countries where a flat curve of infection and minimum casualty have been achieved. They are worried because prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, practically all economies in Africa are weak with shambolic health facilities across the continent.
Why have most African governments adopted the lockdown strategy? It is not to eliminate the virus per se. Essentially, it is to accept the social costs as a price worth paying in order to flatten the curve of infection and most importantly, protect the weak healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. Some Africans believe that African countries must not lockdown because most of its 1.3 billion people are poor. Africa, according to some scholars, is a continent where most of its leaders are both inept and corrupt. For these scholars, they see these two negatives- corruption and ineptitude- as more deadly than COVID-19.
Africa has raw materials, but this has not created wealth for most of its people. In fact, there has not been peace in many African countries in the past 50 years because of inequality in sharing resources. While resources have not been channelled into productive use, Africa with over a billion people according to statistics, has “about” the same GDP with France whose population is about 65 million. Insecurity has pervaded the continent particularly, sub-Saharan Africa, and this has disabled economic development in the region before the arrival of COVID-19.
Frankly speaking, Africa can survive without lockdowns, but the casualty figure occasioned by COVID-19 will be very high. In Africa, it is common to find large gatherings in religious places, seminars, pubs, parties, schools, political gatherings, markets, and motor parks amongst others. Large gatherings can be sources of infection, and it will be worthwhile and commendable if African governments restrict them temporarily.
No lockdown is an option, but it is suicidal. If any government chose not to lockdown for whatever reason, it shows that it has adopted a defensive strategy rather than use an offensive strategy to fight the “invisible enemy”. Whatever strategy is adopted by African governments have risks and there are consequences.
lockdown or no lockdown, two things may happen: Africa may have low casualty figure. Or it may be hit harder than anywhere else on the planet. What is clear is that the cost of lockdown could be high in a continent where many live in a cramped and overcrowded accommodation
The lockdown as prescribed by the World Health organisation (WHO) is to restrict the flow of the virus from getting a foothold at humanity, and to ensure that enough people are tested for COVID-19. But many people have not been tested during lockdown in most countries globally. In fact, Africa’s diversity- culture and level of development- will not permit a uniform governmental response to the COVID-19.
A panel of policy experts have been discussing various ramifications of COVID-19 and assessing its potential impact on Africa. Some policy analysts are of the opinion that it is to make accurate forecasts as Africa will see a more rapid increase in absolute poverty this year (2020) and in the years ahead. They talked about danger of unrest when the poor reach a certain level of despair. And its likelihood in many African countries, which do not offer even rudimentary safety net.
Slower global growth, according to some policy experts, will mean fewer commodity exports from the African continent, and the result could be greater dependence on China which has been an important trading partner in the future than it is currently. At the same time, the virus will threaten the stability of states. “The impact could be to reignite regional instability as volatility in one area may spread to neighbouring countries. We have seen that the virus will weaken governments in their fight against organised crime, rebels and terrorists. The capacity of national armies involved will be tied up in the fight against the pandemic.”
Having briefly x-rayed the impact of COVID-19 on poverty and conflict in Africa, one may say that there should be no lockdown to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the social, political and economic spheres of nation building. But there must be palliatives to the poor in the society.
Honestly, lockdown or no lockdown, two things may happen: Africa may have low casualty figure. Or it may be hit harder than anywhere else on the planet. What is clear is that the cost of lockdown could be high in a continent where many live in a cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water and in most cases reliable power supply. All this make handwashing and staying at home a challenge.
Going by the analysis of the World Bank, Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the economy contracting by up to 5.1 percent in 2020. The implication is that Africa will not have a strong financial weapon to fight the pandemic. As we have seen in Nigeria, our local currency is weakened/adjusted, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chain disrupted, and food imports decreased.
Health is wealth. A healthy society will drive any economy. Equally an economically vibrant society is necessary for the people to prosper. Bearing in mind the peculiar circumstance of Africa, what is our survival strategy? Do we lockdown or not? Do we prioritise and phase the opening of the economy? Do we start with the-organized private sector (OPS) or the informal sector? When and how is this to be done?
Endless questions, but many of them are begging for answers. Importantly, we need to firm-up our own strategy of combating the “invisible enemy” since Africans have decided to take their destiny in their own hands. But I think there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the pandemic. Whatever strategy adopted will not stop the pandemic but may reduce the casualty.
Until we have an approved vaccine and drug to destroy the pandemic, we may have to adopt what I call “A Hybrid Strategy”- combination of lockdown and gradual opening up of the economic space as deemed necessary. Opening of the economic space must be gradual and all must abide by instructions from governments, health authorities and the Presidential Task Force.
As we await further instructions, we must wash our hands with soap, wear face masks and maintain social distancing. To save humanity, we all must tread with caution and detach ourselves from sentiments.
No strategy is perfect until the case of those with symptoms and the number of the dead drop significantly. We must continue to appraise our strategies and come up with new ones as deemed necessary. Thank you!
