It is now becoming clear that next month’s presidential election will be decided on a single issue: corruption. The outcome of the poll won’t be determined by who has the right economic vision or the best political and institutional reform agenda. Rather, it would come down to who is less perceived to be weak on corruption, and less likely to tolerate it, if elected.
President Buhari has deliberately upped the ante on corruption in this campaign because he wants the election to be about fighting graft. The main message of Buhari and his party, All Progressives Congress (APC), is: “Don’t let the treasury looters come back”. That message is designed to upend Buhari’s main opponent, Atiku Abubakar, and his party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and it’s resonating with a lot of people.
Elections are determined by a mix of different factors, but three are critical in electing the leadership of any country. The first is vision; second is competence and third,values. A leader must have the right vision – economic, political, social, institutional – for the country.He or she must have the competence, that is, the ability to provide competent and knowledgeable leadership and to assemble the best team with the right set of skills, to achieve the vision. Then, thirdly, he or she must have the right values, the right moral or ethical standards.
Now, when it comes to vision, my view, previously expressed in this column, is that Atiku has a better vision for Nigeria than Buhari. His bold market-based, private sector-centred economic reform plan and his far-reaching political and institutional reform agenda are what Nigeria needs to make real progress. The intellectual effort that went into crafting Atiku’s manifesto and the depth and breadth of his analyses and policy prescriptions on a wide range of issues are unmatched by Buhari’s shallow plan, which centres on corruption, security and poverty, and ignores the fact that these are symptoms of underlying structural economic, political and institutional problems. So, on the vision test, Atiku beats Buhari handsdown!
What about competence? Well, the consensus around the world is that Atiku would be far more effectual than Buhari. As a business-friendly and liberal-minded person with a technocratic inclination, Atiku would assemble a far stronger technocratic cabinet and a more robust economic team, as well as brighter aides, than Buhari has done and can ever do. He would also be a more informed and knowledgeable leader, an intelligent consumer of complex information, who won’t struggle to read and understand technical documents, such as the AfCFTA agreement! So, on the competence test, again, Atiku floors Buhari!
Now, let’s turn to the third leadership quality: values. How is Atiku perceived, compared with Buhari? Well, here, I must confess that I am surprised at how low Atiku scores in public estimation. For someone who has not actually been convicted of any corruption offence, let alone a grievous one, it is shocking that Atiku has a widespread negative image on this issue. If likeability is a factor that determines the winner of a presidential race, the truth is that Buhari is more liked, despite his fatal weaknesses, because of the perception that he has the right values: strict, no-nonsense discipline, intolerance of corruption, asceticism and frugality. In contrast, Atiku is much like Donald Trump, a brash, aggressive money-making businessman, who is largely amoral, which, of course, must not be confused with immoral!
In today’s world, with poverty and equality rising, voters tend to prefer the non-ostentatious populists, usually left-wing or socialist, who present themselves as friends of the poor. Donald Trump, though a billionaire, won in America because he played the populist game, with his anti-immigration and anti-globalisation rhetoric, which chimed with the poor. In Britain, the young and the poor, who are angry about capitalism and globalisation, are also turning to Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, who, like Buhari, is ascetic and frugal, with a socialist worldview. Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, is widely loathed in Britain not only because of his controversial role in the Iraq war but also because of public distaste for his “aggressive” money-making activities after leaving office, even though the sources of his wealth – advisory roles for multinational corporations and lucrative lectures and public speaking – are transparent and legitimate.
So, there is a backlash around the world against wealthy politicians seeking political offices without a populist agenda. But the situation gets worse when a politician is stupendously rich, and the sources of this wealth are not transparent, or the nature of his business activities is controversial. That, fairly or unfairly, is the burden that Atiku carries. The view is that, yes, he has the right vision, yes, he is likely to be more effectual than Buhari, but he is also likely to be less serious and determined than Buhari about tackling corruption, if elected, despite setting an elaborate anti-graft strategy in this manifesto. Interestingly, this is a view widely shared internationally. For instance, recently, Eurasia, the international consulting group, said in its 2019 Top Risk Report that, as president, Atiku“would focus on enriching himself and his cronies”.
Unfortunately, Atiku has done nothing to confront these negative perceptions; rather, he and his allies are feeding them. In a recent Channels Television interview, Atiku said that, if elected, “I am going to enrich my friends”, adding: “Are my friends not entitled to be enriched?” This is a terrible own-goal by someone struggling with a negative perception on graft. Surely, enriching friends is not something that good leaders do; it’s called cronyism. In a similarly shocking comment, an Atiku ally, Buba Galadima, said in a newspaper interview that: “Even if Atiku breaks into CBN, we will make him president.” Really? I couldn’t help tweeting that “With friends like this, does Atiku need enemies?”. It is very sad that Atiku’s bold economic, political and institutional reforms plans are being overshadowed by questions about his character and values, which are mercilessly exploited by Buhari and his party, APC.
Sadly, apart from his own negative perception, Atiku also inherits the toxic legacy of the PDP, whose 16 years in power, despite some achievements on the economy, is widely associated with corruption. In 2017, former President Jonathan said that “PDP will regain power in 2019”, adding that “PDP’s achievements while in power would rekindle the confidence of the electorate to vote it to power in 2019”. Well, but less than three weeks to the election, there doesn’t seem to be a groundswell of support for the PDP, despite Buhari’s appalling performance. Why? Well, as I said earlier, the election is likely to be decided on the issue of corruption, and APC’s catchphrase “Don’t let the treasury looters come back” is resonating with many people, who still associate its 16 years in power with massive corruption, what with the stories about missing oil revenues and the arms-purchase scandal!
Indeed, anyone who has read the former finance minister Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s two recent books, “Reforming the Unreformable” and “Fighting Corruption is Dangerous”, can only conclude that there was massive corruption under the PDP government. The grand, political and administrative corruption that she describes in granular detail in those books happened under the PDP administration. She writes about how vested interests perpetrated corruption with impunity, largely unchecked. In one story, she narrated how, because of an anti-corruption measure she introduced, a senior Jonathan aide instructed the gatekeeper to stop her from entering Aso Rock villa to attend early morning prayer meeting with the president. Indeed, during a visit by the managing director of the IMF, Christine Largarde, both Largarde and Okonjo-Iweala were prevented from entering through the VIP gates.They had to use the common gate and walk to meet Jonathan. Shocking!
Of course, similar things may be happening under Buhari’s caballed government, but on this issue, it is Atiku and the PDP that lack any reservoir of goodwill. Thus, if Atiku loses next month, it won’t be because of a lack of vision or of competence, but because Nigerians don’t believe that he and his party, PDP, has the right values. They would have suffered from burdens of the past! Fingers crossed!
Olu Fasan
