Like other nations that secured independence from their colonial rulers, Nigeria celebrates its freedom annually, as it did recently on its 64th Independence anniversary. However, such events should transcend the symbolism. The real worth of any independence anniversary lies in whether a nation is better off today than it was at independence. On that score, several former colonies have advanced in leaps and bounds. For instance, India of today is a world apart from India of 1947. Singapore of today is not the backwater entity of 1965. By contrast, Nigeria of today is far worse than Nigeria of 1960.
On any metric of development, Nigeria has utterly regressed since independence, and it is today, at 64, a failing nation, and while it calls itself the “giant of Africa,” it is the deeply troubled and diminished “giant” of Africa. Sadly, Nigeria’s leaders and many of its citizens are in denial about its worsening state; they are unperturbed by its existential decline.
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Well, we must put that in perspective. Individually, in terms of personal accomplishments, some Nigerians have done extremely well since independence. After all, a Nigerian is the first African to win the Nobel Prize for Literature; after all, a Nigerian is the first African and first woman to become the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation. What about the individual attainments of some Nigerians in the field of music and, indeed, in other human endeavours? So, yes, individually, some Nigerians have made their mark at home and abroad. But those individual strokes of genius and exploits are in spite of, not because of, Nigeria.
Surely, all Nigerians, including the few who have done well personally, must be troubled that, corporately, Nigeria itself is stuck in a rut, sinking deeper into the abyss, while 90 percent of Nigerians are condemned to solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short lives, as Thomas Hobbes would put it, with no hope of a better future. Of course, every nation faces challenges, but there’s hope for any country if its future trajectory is promising. Unfortunately, Nigeria’s political and economic trajectories, unless there are radical disruptive interventions, do not bode well for the country’s future, nor do the kind of self-serving and entitled leaders who seek power for self-aggrandisement and self-reward while paying lip service to Nigeria’s progress. This is a far cry from the palpable euphoria on the eve of independence.
“Unfortunately, Nigeria’s political and economic trajectories, unless there are radical disruptive interventions, do not bode well for the country’s future, nor does the kind of self-serving and entitled leaders who seek power for self-aggrandisement and self-reward, while paying lip service to Nigeria’s progress.”
In his book, There Was a Country, Professor Chinua Achebe captured the excitement this way. “The general feeling in the air as independence approached was extraordinary, like the building anticipation of the relief of torrential rains after a season of scorching hot harmattan winds and bushfires.” Of course, as everyone knows, that euphoria did not last. Within seven years of Nigeria’s independence, there were two bloody military coups and a devastating civil war. Today, 64 years later, Nigeria is in a “season of scorching hot harmattan winds and bushfires.”. Sadly, there’s no hope of relief from torrential rains. If anything, things are far worse today than they were in the immediate post-independence era of the 1960s.
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Politically, the in-built disunity, intolerance, and inter-ethnic tensions that led to coups and a civil war shortly after Nigeria’s independence are far more pronounced today, except that the political class has, so far, succeeded in neutralising and co-opting the military class, making coups less likely, and the Nigerian state is far more brutal in using the army and the police to repress separatist agitations and civil unrest. Yet, the impending political inferno in Rivers State can spread across the South-South and rupture Nigeria, if badly handled.
Economically, Nigeria of the 1960s had a flourishing manufacturing sector and a diverse export base—well, not Nigeria of today. As Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala pointed out in her recent speech at the Nigerian Bar Association’s annual conference, in the first half of the 1960s, Nigeria’s per capita income was on par with that of South Korea, at $120. Today, Nigeria’s per capita income is $1,110; South Korea’s is $34,165. Indeed, Nigeria currently ranks 168th out of 192 countries in terms of GDP per capita!
Amid the economic collapse, Nigeria’s population is expanding. In 1960, Nigeria’s population was 46 million; the UK’s was 52 million. Fast forward to 2022; Nigeria’s population was 219 million; the UK’s was 67 million. By 2070, it is projected, Nigeria’s population will be 550.37 million, and the UK’s will be 78.81 million. According to the United Nations, by 2100, Nigeria will overtake China to become the world’s second-most populous country after India. That’s not an outlandish projection given that Nigeria adds about 5.5 million people to its population every year. But what would be the future for Nigeria as the world’s second-most populous country if its political structure remains as deeply flawed as it is and its economy remains dependent on oil and gas exports amid global peak demands?
Recently, the president, Bola Tinubu, blamed unemployment and poverty in Nigeria on the country’s large population. He ignored the fact that the large population itself is not necessarily the problem, but Nigeria’s inability to harness its demographic dividend to grow its economy and tackle unemployment and poverty. China and India overcame the challenges of their large populations by exploiting their demographic advantages to turbocharge production and exports, which led to superlative economic growth that massively expanded their middle classes and took several millions out of unemployment and poverty. There is nothing in Nigeria’s structural makeup, as it is, that can enable it to birth such miracles.
Yet none of this keeps Nigeria’s leaders up at night. Instead, they are patting themselves on the back and awarding themselves national honours for doing nothing other than leeching off the state. What’s more, Tinubu, Nigeria’s braggadocious president, has perfected the art of boosterism, of empty rhetoric. He believes that merely sounding positive about a problem makes it disappear, as if political, economic, and social challenges automatically obey presidential pronouncements.
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In his 64th Independence Anniversary speech, Tinubu said, “Fellow Nigerians, better days are ahead of us,” adding, “I urge you to believe in our nation’s promise.” But what’s Tinubu doing that makes the “better days” and “nation’s promise” achievable? Absolutely nothing credible. He announced the “Economic Stabilisation Bills” to make the business environment “more friendly.” But how can that happen when the interest rate is 27.25 percent, inflation is 32 percent, and a weak naira hikes up input costs? If the “economic stabilisation” means more borrowing to fund stimulus spending, it would worsen the situation by pushing up inflation further, forcing more hikes in interest rates, and harming industrial competitiveness.
In truth, Tinubu has not embraced the basic economic wisdom that growth is a rising tide that lifts all boats and the key antidote to youth unemployment. He wants to organise a 30-day youth conference to address youth unemployment, but the solution to youth joblessness is sound economic policies.
Unfortunately, Tinubu thinks that simply talking up Nigeria’s “greatness” would make it great without the thoughtfulness, analytical rigour, and grit required. Recently, he said, “We are giants of Africa and must remain so.” Really? Does he know that Nigeria is now the fourth largest economy in Africa and has the 28th lowest per capita income? No one ever refers to Nigeria as a “middle power” like South Africa, Brazil, and Indonesia. So, what kind of “giant of Africa” is it? Giant only by population?
The truth is, Nigeria is a struggling nation at 64 and faces a dire future without root and branch structural transformations. Denialism or boosterism won’t save the country; only radical seismic shifts will.
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