7 key events to watch over the next 90 days

Nigeria is in a bit of a flux since after the much talked about 2019 elections. There are several events unfolding in the horizons that may affect us for good or for bad if they happen or fail to happen. I will identify 7 of such events very quickly, in no specific order.

Number 1 is that it is a no brainer that either Atiku or Buhari will win the case at the election tribunal. We all wait to see what the judges make of Atiku’s case and the data purportedly obtained from the INEC server. This is one election petition that will keep Nigerians glued to their seats as the drama unfolds. It will be a long drama because whoever loses at the tribunal is surely going on appeal and this case will definitely go to the Supreme court where we wait anxiously to see who will lead the Supreme court, which 7 justices will hear the matter and how the justices will rule.

Number 2 is the appointment of a new Central Bank Governor or the reappointment of the current Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele. The decision as to who will be our next Central Bank Governor for the next 5 years from May 2019 is one that investors and socio-economic pundits will wait to hear with some level of anxiety. This is a flagship decision and the caliber of person appointed can have good or bad effects on our economy from the day an announcement is made.

Number 3 is the appointment of Ministers or failure to appoint Ministers soon after the swearing in of a new President or appointing Ministers that fail to instill public confidence. History has shown that delays in announcing a cabinet or the announcement of a lack luster cabinet has dire consequences for the Nigerian investment climate and economy. So, we all wait to see when Ministers will be appointed by whoever is sworn in as President and the quality of people eventually selected for the A list positions.

Number 4. The workers and organized labour have fought so hard for their 30,000 Naira minimum wage, but the implementation battle has only just begun. Labour have recently warned the Salary, Income and Wages Commission that they are running out of patience and the implementation circular for the recently approved 30,000-naira minimum wage must be released forthwith. We are all waiting for not just the release of relevant circulars, but to see how it will be implemented and if Peter will be robbed to pay Paul since we know that the finances of government at all levels is in dire straits. Economists will also be curious to see if the new minimum wage will lead to any inflation and to know the contents of the Bismark Rewane Committee on the Implementation of the minimum wage.

Number 5 is the issue of the removal of petroleum subsidy. There has been so much hue and cry in recent times about the fact that petroleum subsidy is a monumental fraud. A recent report indicates that against the backdrop of the continued comatose state of the Nigeria’s local refining capacity, the country may have spent about N10 trillion in the provision of pump price subsidy on imported petroleum products between 2006 to 2018. Recent pointers and unclear signals show that removal of petroleum subsidy is on the front burner for any new federal government and so we wait to see if any action will be taken and the consequences of such actions on the downstream sector of the petroleum industry and the pump price of fuels.

Number 6 is the fact that we all await the passing of the Federal Government’s 2019 budget.President Muhammadu Buhari presented the 2019 budget of the Federal Republic of Nigeria estimated at N8.83 trillion Naira to the joint session of the National Assembly in December 2019 and the National Assembly is still working on it. Nigerians are curious to see not just the final product from the National Assembly but how government intends to finance this budget given the revenue shortfalls being experienced.

Number 7 relates to legislations either about to be sent to the President for assent or already awaiting Presidential assent. Some of the bills awaiting assent like the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) are said to be major reform bills which may usher in a new regime for ease of doing business in Nigeria. Another bill worthy of mention which is in the works is the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) which was rejected by the President last year but has recently been reconsidered by the Senate.

The PIGB is one of four parts of the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which seeks to update the outdated provisions with a more comprehensive and current petroleum industry law that aligns with global standards. The president, earlier in July 2018, rejected the bill. The PIGB seeks to make the Nigerian Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NPRC) the sole regulator overseeing the licensing, monitoring and supervising of petroleum operations. The Police Reform Bill has also been passed by the Senate recently and should join the list of bills awaiting assent. This bill basically deals with the welfare of police operatives and seeks to set up a Police Trust Fund as an intervention.

Nigerians have their ears and eyes open to see how these and other events would play out in the next 90 days or more. There is so much at stake for us all, we need to keep our fingers crossed that politicians will not continue to play politics with our commonwealth.

Ayuli Jemide