So what? That’s the key question for thinking through the future consequences of any action. Called the “Seven So Whats?”, the idea is that if you ask “so what?” seven times, it forces you to identify the possible implications of your action. Well, let’s apply the “so what?” test to the 2023 presidency, but our focus here is on the critical issue of zoning.
Here are two so-what? questions about power shift. First: So what if another northerner succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari next year? Second: So what if a southerner outside of the South-East becomes president? I can hear someone answering those questions and saying: “Heavens will not fall.”
But really? What if either outcome throws Nigeria into deeper political turbulence? This is not scare-mongering or dire catastrophising. Rather, it’s a reality check, a dose of realism about the likely consequences of riding roughshod over the principles of fairness and equity that make power shift imperative in Nigeria, a diverse, multi-national state.
This is not scare-mongering or dire catastrophising. Rather, it’s a reality check, a dose of realism about the likely consequences of riding roughshod over the principles of fairness and equity that make power shift imperative in Nigeria, a diverse, multi-national state
Lately, I have been asking the “so what?” questions, thinking through the probable consequences of both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), rejecting zoning for the 2023 presidency.
Sadly, my fear is that the ensuing political instability would create a cataclysmic perfect storm that could induce military adventurism. Put bluntly, I mean military intervention! God forbid, but the problem and its root-cause stare us in the face.
Looking at how the politicians are jostling in droves for the 2023 presidency, without displaying an iota of integrity, without giving a hoot about the impacts of their selfish ambitions on inter-ethnic harmony and national cohesion, one must wonder whether Nigeria is not teetering on the brink of a political calamity.
Once upon a time, it was fashionable to say that if the military had not intervened in 1966 and terminated the six-year-old First Republic, Nigeria would have become a matured democracy. It was also often said that if the military had not intervened in 1983 and truncated the nearly-five-year-old Second Republic, Nigeria would have become a strong democracy.
But what excuse can anyone give for the utterly appalling state of politics and democracy in Nigeria today, despite, by next year, 24 years of uninterrupted civil rule? Shouldn’t a country’s politics and democracy reach some level of maturity after a continuous period of 24 years?
Well, truth is, Nigeria is bedevilled by the combination of structural and cultural failures. Cobbled together by the colonialists, Nigeria was a mere geographical entity, not a nation. And over 60 years after its independence, it has failed to evolve into a unified nation-state; its ethnic nationalities are locked in hostile rivalry and cut-throat struggle for power; its self-aggrandising politicians exploit ethnicity for their selfish political ambitions instead of building a nation through deliberate promotion of fairness and equity, conditions that engender a sense of inclusion and, thus, nationhood. Take the issue at hand: zoning.
PDP has zoning provisions in its constitution, but, pressured by its powerful northern members, the party has decided to throw its presidential ticket open, thus allowing for the emergence of a northern candidate against the imperative for a southern president in 2023.
Even stranger, APC, widely believed to have zoned its presidential ticket to the South, recently said, through its new chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, that it had not decided on zoning the presidency, while, in fact, selling nomination forms, at a whopping N100 million, to northern aspirants! So, there’s the possible of a northern presidential candidate emerging in APC.
Unsurprisingly, prominent northern groups and leaders are relaxed about a northerner becoming president again next year. The Northern Elders Forum (NEF), unhelpfully weighed in, saying that “zoning is retrogressive, unwanted and anti-democratic”; its leader, Ango Abdullahi, described zoning the presidency between North and South as “dead and buried”, suggesting that the North could have the presidency for keeps, indefinitely.
Provoked by that audacity, the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF), retorted: “Kill and bury zoning; kill and bury Nigeria”! Well, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), fired back, saying it wasn’t afraid of Nigeria breaking up, insisting the North must produce the next president.
Meanwhile, southern unity is elusive as the South is utterly divided on the issue. Ohanaeze Ndigbo said the next president must come from the South-East, which has not produced president since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.
But, emerging from their recent meeting in Lagos, Yoruba APC leaders insisted the presidency “must come to the South-West in 2023”, despite the zone having produced president for eight years and vice-president for, by next year, eight years. And in the South-South, which produced president for five years and vice-president for three years, several aspirants, including some strange and dubious characters, want to become Nigeria’s president next year.
So, we have a zero-sum, non-cooperative situation where neither the parties nor the politicians, neither the North nor the South, neither the South-West nor the South-South, care about zoning, each showing utter disregard for the principles of fairness, equity and justice.
Which brings us back to the two so-what? questions. Let’s start with the first: So what if APC and PDP field northern candidates in next year’s presidential election? Well, there are two possible scenarios, neither of which bodes well for the country.
First, as Chief Edwin Clark, leader of Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), said in a recent interview, the South could boycott the presidential poll. Given that the Southern Governors’ Forum has repeatedly said that the South would not vote for any northern candidate, it is not inconceivable that the South could refuse to vote in next year’s presidential election if the two main parties were to field northern candidates.
But if the South boycotts the presidential poll, no northern candidate will have the requisite spread – one-quarter of the votes cast in two-thirds of 36 states, i.e., 24 states – to become president. That would trigger a major crisis.
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Would President Buhari invoke Section 305 of the Constitution to extend his tenure until, perhaps, the South could be pacified? Buhari insists that he would hand over power come May 29 next year. But if the South boycotts the poll and an emergency situation ensues, would he extend his tenure? What could happen if he did?
Here’s the second scenario. Even if the South doesn’t formally boycott the poll, the turnout could be extremely low across the South, well below 10 percent. In such circumstances, would the “winning” northern candidate have the legitimacy to govern Nigeria?
Truth is, the country would be deeply divided, more divided than today, and the South would be almost ungovernable. There would be temptations to use military force to suppress the agitations, but that could amount to riding the back of the tiger or endangering Nigeria’s corporate existence.
Finally, the second so-what? question. So what if a southerner outside the South-East becomes president? There’s a groundswell of support for the 2023 presidency going to the South-East. Afenifere, PANDEF and the Middle Belt Forum have joined Ohanaeze Ndigbo in calling for a president of South-East extraction, so have prominent Nigerians, such as former President Obasanjo. But what if the North agrees to zone the presidency to the South, but the South refused to micro-zone it to the South-East?
Truth is, if a southerner other than from the South-East emerges as president next year, there would be deep and festering uneasiness in the South-East. And a southern president, particularly a Yoruba, whose zone wilfully ignored the Igbo’s fairness-based claim to the presidency, would struggle to contain the rising agitations.
Fairness, equity and justice make power shifts an imperative. But so does pragmatism. To avoid escalating political instability, the 2023 presidency should be zoned to the South and micro-zoned to the South-East.
