With the gradual ending of 2020 and beginning of 2021, there are mixed feelings! That of relief, of anxiety and of muted hope. Relief that some of us have survived 2020 with all the attendant negative impacts on every aspect of our existence and then that of anxiety and hope that as we enter 2021, we look forward and work to have a better year than 2020.
Interestingly, while COVID-19 really exposed our poor risk management awareness and practice as businesses and economy, it also provided a good feedback and opportunity for us to learn to be more proactive and resilient particularly on how to strategically turn challenges into opportunities.
Focusing on a recent report by KPMG in which the likely risks that businesses in Nigeria will face in 2021 were identified, the question is how we can proactively better understand and manage the risks through robust and effective mitigation strategies. Of the many risks, the 10 top ones include- Regulatory risk, Fiscal and monetary risk, Foreign Exchange volatility risk, Cyber-security, Political risk, Technology infrastructure risk, Customer attrition risk, Talent shortage/attrition risk, Business continuity risk and Governance risk. While these are the main risks, it is important to note that at the centre of how Nigeria will further decline, or grow is the political risk of 2023 Presidency and its interconnectedness with other types of risk. This is an issue that the business community seems to be shying away from discussing and making their contributions known.
The EndSARS protests and consequent crisis provided clear insight that nobody is safe in a troubled environment and that effective/inclusive governance is the urgent and serious responsibility of everybody
While there seems to be an acknowledgement that the political risks of 2023 Presidency exists, there is no conscious effort for a coordinated and robust discussion on how the business community will be affected and what they can do or how they can contribute to achieve a good outcome. Expectedly, whereas some CEOs maintain that politics is politics and business is business and as such 2023 Presidency being a political matter should be left for politicians to settle, it is a timid understanding and response to a factor and risk too central to the survival and growth of every business in Nigeria and the economy. The interconnectedness of politics and business especially for a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment such as ours cannot be overemphasised. If this is the case, the limited and silo attention paid to political risks particularly the 2023 Presidency by the business community in Nigeria is counterproductive and wrong.
Disappointingly, what the Nigerian business community and leaders normally do is any party in power. Once a party wins power, the immediate agenda for most businesses is how to gravitate to the party and the power cabals within the party and the government. Moreover, with the convoluted nature of our politics and economy, the big business players normally provide both financial and non-financial support to the key political parties with the strategy that they will benefit irrespective of whoever wins power. So, as we have crony capitalism, so we have crony political system but the question to the business leaders and community is how sustainable is such approach?
If the Nigerian business leaders and community did not learn anything from COVID 19, I think that the EndSARS protests and consequent crisis provided clear insight that nobody is safe in a troubled environment and that effective/inclusive governance is the urgent and serious responsibility of everybody. Whether you know the party in power, or the power cabals are immaterial in a period of crisis especially for businesses that are normally prime targets.
Even if we ignore the COVID 19 and EndSARs, the decline in the levels of both Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment and other key growth indices clearly show that all is not well with Nigeria and that all efforts are needed to rescue the failing giant of Africa. As we are in a very precarious situation, adding another serious political risk of the 2023 Presidency demands that great caution must be applied to avoid a total failure of the economy and country. When I say 2023 Presidency, I am referring to the zone that should produce the President. This is not a discussion that the business community should shy away from nor the one that can be perceived as dictated only by the competence of the contenders. It is the one that their voice or voices of the business community should be as strong as ever. Leaving this issue to be decided only by traditional politicians is too risky.
Let me also clarify that the active interest of the business community is not really about how the policies of a new government will affect their businesses, it is about the negative consequences of wrongful zoning of the presidency. Just as the EndSARS protest mainly focused on ending police brutality, the poor handling of the situation led to deeply regrettable loss of lives and wanton destruction of businesses and properties.
With the way the zoning of the 2023 Presidency is going, the signs suggest that rational, objective and patriotic reasoning might be in short supply. What is therefore required of the business community is to carry out a critical and objective assessment of the issue and contentions and help to provide a patriotic guidance to the country and politicians.
Some of the questions that should guide the discussion and assessment of the situation include- First, given the peculiarities of Nigeria, which zone should produce the President that will ignite unity, inclusiveness and stability. Second, to build confidence and hope in the economy, which zone will the Presidency be zoned to that will trigger the best business growth across Nigeria. Third, as it is widely agreed that the Presidency should shift to the South based on the informal agreements and understanding of the main political parties, which of the zones in the South should produce the President in 2023 based on equity, fairness and oneness.
This is not about the zone that can get it in a manner of life and death but the zone that deserves it from a patriotic, inclusive and business considerations. There are many other questions but as I earlier stated, the situation we have is not one to be decided by silo preferences and interests, it is the one that should be decided by objectivity, logical thinking, inclusiveness, patriotism, business and Nigeria! Ignoring these important factors in deciding the 2023 Presidency will be counterproductive and will not benefit anyone including those that might get the power by any means!
Dr. Ngwu, is an Economist/Associate Professor of Strategy, Risk Management & Corporate Governance, Lagos Business School and a Member, Expert Network, World Economic Forum. E-mail- [email protected],
