2022: Pre-election politicking will trump governing in Nigeria

Nigeria has entered the pre-election season. This year, 2022, is when political parties will elect their candidates for next year’s election. It is thus likely to be a year of intense political activities. Even in saner societies, pre-election seasons affect governing and governance. In Nigeria, pre-election periods deepen the existing stasis. The reasons are not far-fetched. The three constituent parts of the Federal Government – president, ministers and civil/public servants – hardly function at all during political seasons.

Let’s start with the civil service and public sector. Nigeria’s civil service and public sector are among the worst in the world. Where you have professional, impartial and competent civil service and public sector, pre-election periods pose little problems because civil and public servants get on with delivering efficient and effective services while politicians indulge in politicking. In Nigeria, pre-election periods deepen bureaucratic inertia not only because the civil service and public sector lack capacity for essential functions but also because they are utterly politicised, a tool for politicking.

For instance, a political analyst, Kayode Ogundamisi, once wrote that “Lagos state civil service is an extension of the party structure”, adding that “hardly would you find a Lagos state civil servant who is not a card-carrying member of the APC”. And, of course, the civil servants are used for electioneering. The situation is similar at the federal level.

Ministers who are mainly technocrats tend to get on with their jobs during political seasons. But not career politicians. And most Nigerian ministers, especially in President Buhari’s administration, are career politicians

Take one example. Abdulmumin Jibrin is the executive director of business development at the Federal Housing Authority; he’s in charge of commercial, social and corporate housing schemes. But he is also the director-general of the Bola Tinubu Support Group Management Council, making extensive media appearances actively fronting Tinubu’s campaign for his party’s ticket for the 2023 presidential election.

Asked on Arise TV about conflict of interest between his state-funded public office and partisan political role, Jibrin said there was none. But there is, and, elsewhere, there would be. For instance, in the US, the Hatch Act of 1939 prevents state-funded public servants from engaging in party-political activities while in office.

What about ministers? Well, ministers who are mainly technocrats tend to get on with their jobs during political seasons. But not career politicians. And most Nigerian ministers, especially in President Buhari’s administration, are career politicians, not technocrats. And because they are career politicians, they have, so to say, one leg in Abuja and another in their home state, fighting for their political turf at the expense of their ministerial duties.

Take Rauf Aregbesola, former Osun State governor. He is the current Minister of Interior. Under him, prisoners are breaking out of jail with incessancy. Some would accuse him of skulking, of shirking his ministerial responsibilities. Yet, Aregbesola has the time to engage in a war of attrition with his successor, Gboyega Oyetola, fighting for political supremacy and control of their party, APC, in Osun State. The truth is that political ministers, that is, ministers who are career politicians, tend to have one eye on their ministerial role and another on politicking in their home state.

Elsewhere, having ministers who are career politicians does not matter for two reasons. First, pre-election periods are short (for instance, in the UK, the “purdah” period typically begins six weeks before the scheduled election). Second, the civil service and public sector are professional, technocratic and impartial. As such, they can ensure government is well run during elections. But when you have a long pre-election period (we talk of pre-election year in Nigeria) as well as the combination of non-technocratic civil/public servants and career politicians, the result would be more government inertia in pre-election seasons.

That brings us to the President, the apex of the leadership hierarchy in the federal government. The robustness of his position matters during pre-election seasons. The truth is that if a president is in the final year of his second and last term, he becomes, effectively, a lame duck president. His power and influence gradually drain away and everyone, including bureaucrats, begins to count his last days in office.

President Buhari is in his final full year in office and will soon become a lame duck. In fact, as Garba Shehu, Buhari’s senior media assistant, said in a statement last week, “so many people in the political elite of this country cannot wait for the President’s second term in office to end.” In truth, this is because his tenure is coming to an end. Indeed, Buhari himself believes he has done his best, and can’t wait to return to his farm.

Thus, anyone who expects the Buhari administration to make any meaningful progress this year is mistaken and living in cloud cuckoo land. First, Buhari has failed utterly, for nearly seven years, to lay the foundations for any nation-transforming progress to happen in the political and socio-economic life of Nigeria now. Second, he’s too set in his ways to do anything transformative this year. Think about it. The two “major” decisions Buhari has made, so far, this year are purely symbolic!

Take Buhari’s appointment of Dr Doyin Salami as his chief economic adviser on January 4. A headline in This Day newspaper put it aptly: “80 months after taking office, Buhari appoints Salami as Chief Economic Adviser.” In 2019, Buhari constituted the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) and appointed Salami as its chairman. But what has the council achieved? What advice did they give Buhari? Did they advise him to close Nigeria’s land borders in November 2019, with the enormous damage it did to the economy?

Read also: Pre-election spending to spur inflationary pressure in 2022

And, of course, one must ask: Why did Buhari appoint Dr Salami as his chief economic adviser, the first after nearly seven years in office, with barely a year before the next presidential election, and less than 14 months before he leaves office?

Well, President Buhari seems to like Salami for his views on agriculture. In his recent interview with Channels TV, Buhari swooned over Salami for telling the Federal Executive Council that “only 2.5 percent of Nigeria’s arable land is being used.” Buhari repeated those words several times, and then said: “So, we are going to turn our attention to agriculture for the time remaining for us.”

But if President Buhari listens to Salami on agriculture, would he also listen to him on Nigeria’s unsustainable debt stock, on how to make Nigeria’s economy and business environment attractive to foreign investors and local businesses? Well, no, because Buhari’s eyes only light up when he’s talking about state ownership, state control and state intervention. He is enamoured with dirigisme, with statism!

Buhari’s second “major” decision this year was unbanning Twitter. Let’s face it, nothing, absolutely nothing, justified banning Twitter, let alone for 222 days. The government gloats about the so-called concessions it secured from Twitter, but, as I once wrote in this column, it’s a pyrrhic victory; the damage to investor confidence will outlive Buhari’s government.

Beyond the two symbolic decisions, expect nothing from President Buhari this year, well, except the planned new taxes, tariffs and levies, which would exacerbate the cost of living crisis and harm business competitiveness. The bloated N17.12 trillion 2022 budget will, of course, do nothing to improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians. Asked by Channels TV if he understood the pains of Nigerians, Buhari said: “I’m absolutely aware of it.” But his solution? “We have to go back to the land,” he said!

Expectedly, the inertia extends to political reforms. Buhari rejects calls for constitutional reforms; he rejects restructuring and state police, and dithers on electoral reform. He believes nothing is wrong with Nigeria politically, and, thus, there’s no need for any change.

Before this year, Buhari’s administration was in stasis. With the pre-election year kicked into gear, he will freewheel his way to the end of his term next year and return to his farm. Sad!