World War III elusive but global peace prospects dim

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its 100th day, widespread fears that it could trigger the next global warfare as Western countries align to defend Ukraine have not materialised — so far, but current trends show the prospect of global peace is coming apart at the seams.

Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine ostensibly to halt the country’s drift to the West and rid it of Nazis seems to have largely backfired. It has drawn the ire of Europe, forced Ukraine closer to the West, unleashed bruising sanctions against the Russian economy, herald an exodus of businesses from Russia, and triggered a global nuclear arms race.

Russia’s war of choice against Ukraine has galvanised Europe to open up its borders to fleeing Ukrainian women and children, forced Finland and Sweden who share borders with Russia to apply for NATO membership, abandoning 70 years of neutrality, and compelled Germany to jettison an 80-year policy of small military spending and has seen the largest arms deployment by European nations against Russia.

Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister, in an interview with New York Times Opinion Columnist, Thomas Friedman, said: “The status quo ante will not come back. You are seeing a huge change in Europe in response to Russia — not based on American pressure, but because the threat perception of Russia today is completely different: We understand that Putin is not talking about Ukraine alone, but about all of us and our way of freedom.”

As Putin’s army steps up bombing campaigns against cities and civilian population, it is putting Europe on a confrontational footing with Russia. Since Russian aggression morphed into war in Ukraine, the 27-member European bloc has imposed five packages of sanctions against Russia. The latest package agreed on Monday will cut about 90 percent of EU oil imports from Russia by the end of the year while also removing Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, from SWIFT, a key global banking messaging system. While some of these sanctions hurt Europe in the short term, many see them as a necessary pain to ball a fist against Putin.

Nuclear arms race

Perhaps the biggest consequence of Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine is the hardening of resolve by vulnerable countries to arm themselves with nukes.

Countries like South Korea which were compelled to dismantle their covert nuclear programmes in the 1970s by the United States are openly discussing the possibility of restarting nuclear programmes, especially as they share a border with a country ran ‘Rocket Man,’ which measures virality by the speed of their ballistic missiles.

Following former President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the Iran deal signed by his predecessor, Iran has amassed enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon, according to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday.

The immediate reaction to a nuclear-armed Iran is the inevitable quest by its neighbours, Saudi Arabia and others, to get their own nukes.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may also be drawing up the blueprint for China on how to invade Taiwan. Unlike Russia, the Chinese economy is stronger and better able to withstand western sanctions. China’s economic pacts around Africa and Asia and investments in the West will complicate attempts at sanctions.

China, a nuclear power, once maintained a few hundred warheads as a deterrent, to maintain an ability to respond if attacked; now it is just amassing warheads in volumes that show it is gearing for a brawl.

Read also: Zelensky, Erdogan agree on restoration of peace in Ukraine

Worse still, the quest for nuclear arms is happening at a time when the restraints that prevented nuclear armageddon during the cold war have all but frayed. The United States and Russia abandoned the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 which banned missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km (310-3,400 miles).

In 2019, the US and NATO accused Russia of violating the pact by deploying a new type of cruise missile, which Moscow denied. Only one treaty — New START, which limits both sides to 1,550 deployed strategic weapons — is left in place and could even unravel when it comes up for review.

The United States continued support for Ukraine, analysts say, will only prolong the war but there is no indication that it plans to slow it.

“We will continue providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, powerful artillery and precision rocket systems, radars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Mi-17 helicopters, and ammunition,” said US President Joseph Biden in an opinion piece published in the New York Times.

He further said, “We will also send billions more in financial assistance, as authorized by Congress. We will work with our allies and partners to address the global food crisis that Russia’s aggression is worsening. And we will help our European allies and others reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels, and speed our transition to a clean energy future.

“We will also continue reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with forces and capabilities from the United States and other allies. And just recently, I welcomed Finland’s and Sweden’s applications to join NATO, a move that will strengthen overall U.S. and trans-Atlantic security by adding two democratic and highly capable military partners.”

Some EU leaders meanwhile are urging President Biden to call Putin and explore terms of a cease-fire. Even Ukrainian President Zelensky admits diplomacy is the way to end the war but with Putin’s army encircling eastern and southern Ukraine and pulverizing cities and pummelling the Ukrainian army, it’s doubtful his ego could countenance compromise.

Unless a compromise is reached, the world is staring at a food crisis, an upsurge of refugees, and an increasingly belligerent, hostile world, which could wreak some of the havoc of a global war without the mess of war, blood, and gore.