Week Ahead: U.S. to release GDP report, as Stanbic IBTC publishes Nigeria’s PMI

The United States is set to release its Gross Domestic Product report for the third quarter of 2024 on Wednesday.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2024 and 2025 economic growth forecasts for the U.S.—the only developed economy to see its outlook marked up for both years sought by the Federal Reserve in which inflation eases without big damage to the job market had largely been achieved.

“Household final consumption fell by 0.2 percent, and the decrease in expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed most to the decline, according to Statistics Sweden.”

Meanwhile, Stanbic IBTC will release Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for October on Friday.

Tuesday October 29,

Japan to release unemployment rate

The government of Japan is set to release the unemployment rate for the month of September.

Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.5 percent in August from July’s 11-month peak of 2.7 percent.

This was lower than the market forecast of 2.6 percent.

The non-seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate went up to 63.6 percent in August from 63.1 percent in the same month a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the jobs-to-applications rate ticked lower to 1.23 percent in August from 1.24 percent in July.

The International Monetary Fund recently projected that Japan’s nominal gross domestic product will be overtaken by India’s and slip from fourth largest in the world to fifth in 2025.

Read also: Why we’re rebasing GDP, CPI – Statistician-general

Sweden to release Q3 GDP report

The Swedish Statistics Agency is set to the GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2024.

GDP decreased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the previous quarter, and grew by 0.5 percent compared to the second quarter of 2023.

Household real disposable income increased by 2.0 percent compared to the second quarter of 2023.

Household final consumption fell by 0.2 percent, and the decrease in expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed most to the decline, according to Statistics Sweden.

Wednesday October 30,

U.S. to release Q3 Gross Domestic report

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the US gross domestic product for the third quarter of this year on Wednesday.

The U.S. economy will continue to provide most of the thrust for global growth through the balance of this year and in 2025, led by robust consumer spending that has held up through a wrenching bout of inflation and the high interest rates used to tame it, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

The IMF revised its 2024 U.S. growth forecast upward by 20 percent of a percentage point to 2.8 percent due largely to stronger-than-expected consumption fuelled by rising wages and asset prices.

The global lender also upgraded its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by 30 percent to 2.2 percent, slightly delaying a return to trend growth.

Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, boosted by a strong consumer, government spending, and a sizable inventory build.

Real gross domestic product increased at a 3.0 percent annualised pace in the second quarter, above the 2.8 percent forecast.

Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment, according to the first of three estimates the department will provide.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Fed, rose 2.6 percent for the quarter, down from the 3.4 percent move in the first quarter.

However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5 percent for the quarter, compared with 3.8 percent in the previous quarter.

Initial jobless claims declined by 10,000, while durable goods orders unexpectedly plunged.

Thursday October 31,

Japan set to hold interest rate decision meeting

The Bank of Japan is set to hold its interest rate decision meeting on Thursday.

The International Monetary Fund recently projected that the BOJ’s policy rate—now at 0.25 percent—will reach 1.5 percent in 2027.

“Given balanced risks to inflation, further hikes in policy rates should proceed at a gradual pace,” Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, said at the central bank’s policy outlook during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington.

The BoJ raised short-term rates to 0.25 percent in July, ending its negative rate policy in March aimed at achieving its 2 percent inflation target.

Experts expect the bank to forgo an internet rate hike at the next meeting and maintain the rates for the rest of the year.

Friday November 1

Stanbic IBTC to publish Nigeria’s PMI

Stanbic IBTC is expected to release Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for October on Friday.

Business activity in Nigeria fell for the second time in a row as prices rose at the sharpest rates in six months due to inflationary pressure.

According to the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by Stanbic IBTC Bank, the headline index declined to 49.8 in September from 49.9 in August. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while those below show deterioration.

“Business confidence fell in September and was the second lowest on record, only just above the series nadir posted in July,” it said.

This is as inflationary pressures intensified in September, adding to the challenges faced by Nigerian companies as the third quarter drew to a close.

In October, inflation ticked higher to 32.70 percent after a two-month slowdown in July and August.