The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected slower growth for the sub-Saharan Africa region, citing weaker-than-expected activity in Nigeria in the first half of 2024.
The Washington-based organisation revealed this in its World Economic Outlook, October 2024. It noted that it revised the region’s growth forecast downward by 0.2 percentage points for 2024 and 0.1 percentage points for 2025 compared to its projection in April.
“Besides the ongoing conflict that has led to a 26 percent contraction of the South Sudanese economy, the revision reflects slower growth in Nigeria, amid weaker-than-expected activity in the first half of the year,” it said.
However, the region’s GDP growth is projected to increase from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2025 as the adverse impacts of prior weather shocks abate and supply constraints gradually ease.
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In its new forecast, the IMF expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.19 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2024.
Globally, the IMF stated that although revisions to the forecast since April have been minimal, offsetting shifts at the country group level reflect recent shocks and policies, most notably in emerging markets and developing economies.
“Cuts in production and shipping of commodities (oil in particular), conflicts, and civil unrest have led to downward revisions to the regional outlooks for the Middle East and Central Asia and for sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investment in artificial intelligence, has fueled stronger growth in emerging Asia,” it stated.
It stated that compared with April, growth in emerging market and developing economies is revised upward by 0.1 percentage point for 2024, reflecting upgrades for Asia (China and India) that more than offset downgrades for sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
The IMF said inflation forecasts for emerging and developing Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa remain in double-digit territory due to large outliers, including pass-through of past currency depreciation and administrative price adjustment (Egypt) and underperformance in agriculture (Ethiopia).
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