Nigeria’s development plan fails again plunging millions into deeper poverty

The 2021–2025 National Development Plan (NDP), which aimed to lift 35 million people out of poverty and create 21 million full-time jobs by 2025, has joined the long list of the country’s failed economic blueprints.

Instead of reducing poverty, the plan has seen an additional 44 million Nigerians plunged into extreme poverty. In 2021, the World Bank said 85 million Nigerians lived below the international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. By October 2024, the institution reported again that 129 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line.

“With inflation eroding the value of the naira, the required investment sum in 2025 will likely be far higher than initially projected.”

It is almost ironic that a plan designed to rescue 35 million from poverty has instead pushed 125 percent of that number deeper into destitution. This outcome, while disheartening, is hardly surprising to those familiar with Nigeria’s history of abandoned or poorly executed development plans.

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Launched by former President Muhammadu Buhari, the NDP was ambitious—perhaps overly so, given Nigeria’s track record of crumbling economic strategies. The plan outlined six key objectives as prepared by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning:

1. Economic Diversification—Strengthening non-oil sectors.

2. Infrastructure Development—Investing in critical infrastructure.

3. Good Governance & Security—Building efficient institutions and enhancing stability.

4. Human Capital Development—Improving education, health, and welfare.

5. Social Inclusion—Reducing poverty and unemployment.

6. Regional Development—Addressing regional disparities.

These goals were intended to grow the economy by an average of 4.6 percent annually and raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent. However, four years later, based on World Bank data, the economy has grown by only 3.27 percent—well below the 4.6 percent target. BusinessDay analysis also shows that the average revenue-to-GDP ratio from 2023 to Q3 2024 is 9.14 percent, significantly short of the targeted 15 percent.

Job creation: A pipe dream

The plan’s promise of creating 21 million full-time jobs has also fallen flat. To understand why, it’s important to distinguish between full-time jobs and wage jobs. According to Merriam-Webster, a full-time job is “employment in which a person works a minimum number of hours defined by their employer, typically around 35–40 hours per week.” In contrast, a wage job is paid on an hourly, daily, or piece-rate basis and may not meet the full-time threshold. Although a full-time job can be a wage job, not all wage jobs are full-time.

According to the World Bank, as of 2024, only 12.4 percent of Nigerians are engaged in wage jobs. Even more troubling, the bank notes that “creating jobs is not enough to lift people out of poverty, as high employment and high poverty can coexist.” With Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 4.3 percent, it’s clear that the NDP has failed to deliver on its employment promises.

A history of unimplemented plans

This failure is not an isolated incident. Mohammed Haruna, a consummate journalist and member of the Vision 2010 committee, shared his experience. “If you go through history, there were quite a few reports that were not implemented. That history of lack of implementation of blueprints seems to go on even now,” he said.

Henry Okolo, former managing director of First Aluminium, echoed this sentiment. He highlighted the grand ambitions of past plans: “We were meant to establish a network of Nigerian international schools across West Africa to promote our cultural values.” Today, Nigeria’s education system is in disarray. In 2024, UNICEF reported 18.3 million out-of-school children in Nigeria, while UNESCO estimated Nigeria accounted for 15 percent of the global total of 251 million out-of-school children. We love putting plans on paper to appear as if we are planning, but implementation—the critical part—remains neglected.

Okolo noted in the oil and gas sector, “We were supposed to have surveillance aircraft to combat oil theft and illegal fishing.” Yet, oil theft remains a persistent problem, costing the country billions annually.

Read also: Poverty drives public assets theft amid enforcement void

The illusion of public-private partnerships

Buhari’s administration, followed by Tinubu’s, both of the APC government, owe Nigerians explanations for the 2021–2025 NDP’s failure. The NDP estimated that a total investment of N348.1 trillion would be required to achieve its objectives. The government (federal, state, and local) was expected to contribute N49.7 trillion, with the private sector providing the remaining N298.3 trillion. However, the government’s track record with Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) has been far from encouraging.

For instance, when the plan launched in 2021, the Highway Development and Management Initiative (HDMI) was also introduced. The initiative aimed to attract N11.54 trillion in private investment to develop 12 major highways over 25 years. Yet, delays caused by insecurity, bureaucratic bottlenecks, and uncertainty have stalled progress.

A glaring example is the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano road rehabilitation project. Initially awarded in 2018 and revised in 2021, the project was abruptly terminated in November 2024, with contractors ordered to vacate the site. The government cited a shift to a more cost-effective plan involving concrete roads as the reason. However, as Financial Derivative Company noted, “The termination of such contracts sends negative signals to potential investors.”

Where do we stand now?

As the NDP nears its end, Nigerians are left with more questions than answers. How many full-time jobs have been created? How many people have been lifted out of poverty? How much of the N348.1 trillion investment has been secured and utilised? With inflation eroding the value of the naira, the required investment sum in 2025 will likely be far higher than initially projected.

The government must remember that it has a social contract with the people to deliver on its promises. Nigerians deserve transparency, accountability, and tangible results. Without these, the cycle of failed development plans will continue, leaving millions trapped in poverty and despair.

The NDP’s collapse is not just a policy failure—it’s a betrayal of the hopes and aspirations of millions of Nigerians. Until the government prioritises implementation over rhetoric, the country’s development will remain a distant dream.