Nigeria’s already battered economy risk further downside as #EndSARS protest escalates

Just when Nigeria thought it won’t get any worse, after suffering its biggest contraction in more than a decade from the fall out of the coronavirus pandemic, situations in Africa’s biggest economy could get even worse with the protest that is forcing governments across the country to enact a curfew.

For the first time since Nigeria returned to civilian rule, youths in the country put aside ethnic and religious diversity, to embark on a peaceful match to demand an end to police brutality after videos emanated online showing a young man whose car was wrongfully taken after being shot by the Federal Special Anti Robbery Unit, a unit of the Nigerian police created in 1992 to check crime.

That sparked public outrage with Nigerians recounting various painful experiences with the said police unit, thereby resonating the #EndSars campaign which first started about four years ago but has fallen on deaf ears of the government.

Even though the government had since disbanded the FSARS unit, and created another unit called SWAT, it still hasn’t been able to calm the nerves of the protesters, who have for the third time witnessed the disbandment of the units for the third time.

The protest has since escalated, with protestants moving from requesting an end to police brutality to demanding good governance, police reforms, and a cut in the humongous pay of Nigerian senators and political elite.

Tensions are brewing in all parts of the country, with thugs hiding in the name of the protest to disrupt lives and property across the country.

No fewer than 15 deaths have been recorded across the country since the over one week when the protest started, according to reports from human rights group, Amnesty International.

But in what could be described as a straw that broke the camel’s back for the oil-rich African Nation, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, governor of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial city which accounts for more than 30 percent of the country’s GDP, announced a 24 hours curfew, over what it says was due to escalating tensions.

The curfew imposition came after a video circulated on social media showing hoodlums set ablaze two Police stations around Orile Iganmu area in Lagos, carting away with several items including guns.

According to the governor who announced via his official Twitter account, only essential service providers and first responders must be found on the streets

Before now, the government of Lagos had ordered a complete shutdown of schools until further notice.

BusinessDay reported yesterday how businesses are feeling the heat of the protest with many passengers missing their flight and activities and events put on hold due to the nationwide protest.

With business activities being disrupted it could lead to a downside in the economy, according to Joachim MacEbong, a senior analyst at SBM Intelligence.

In Benin, the government had already imposed a curfew following escalating tension in the state that led to the loss of lives and the break of prison.

There are expectations that with rising tensions across the country, other states may be forced to impose curfews to calm the already tensed atmosphere.

“Naturally a prolonged crisis usually has a notable effect on the economy, and the most notable effect comes in the form of output contraction and inflation,” one economist told BusinessDay

“Output contraction will arise in the sense that several firms will experience shrinking revenues particularly those in non-essential sectors,” the economist said on condition of anonymity as he is not allowed to speak on political issues

The economy is yet to recover from the blows of the pandemic and the continued protest that has crippled businesses and triggered the imposition of curfews could pose threat to economic activities, analysts who spoke to BusinessDay on the matter said.

With protesters mounting roadblocks and taking siege on virtually all major roads in the country, prices of items including food and transportation, have almost doubled.

This could worsen Nigeria’s inflation figure which jumped to a 30-months high of 13.7 percent in September and creates more headache for the Nigerian populace who wallets have been strained due to increasing commodity prices.