Nigeria and the United States of America are expected to publish their inflation reports this week. Prices have begun to cool in most economies but Nigeria’s still remains high.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will reveal Nigeria’s oil output for October.
Tuesday, November 12
OPEC to publish Nigeria’s oil production output
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will publish Nigeria’s oil production capacity for the month of October on Tuesday.
According to OPEC, Nigeria’s average crude oil production for September was 1.324 million barrels per day, a drop of 27 thousand barrels compared to 1.352 million barrels per 01 in the previous month.
Despite this decline, Nigeria remained Africa’s largest oil producer, widening the gap with Libya, which experienced production setbacks due to the shutdown of key oil fields, reducing its output to 450 thousand barrels per day.
BusinessDay reported that the p00comeback of Donald Trump as the president of the U.S. may likely pressure Nigeria’s already shrinking oil revenues as global oil prices expectedly began to react to the victory of the oldest leader of the world’s largest economy.
Oil accounts for some 90 percent of Nigeria’s revenue generation but with a decline that falls short of the budgetary 1.7 million bpd could further strain the economy and worsen poverty levels.
Meanwhile, Nigeria has been struggling to increase oil production to meet both its OPEC quota and local refinery demands. Since the beginning of the year, the country’s output has hovered between 1.2 and 1.3 million barrels per day.
Read also: OPEC+ agrees to delay December output hike for one month
UK to release unemployment rate
The United Kingdom is expected to release its unemployment rate on Tuesday after it fell slightly to 4 percent in the three months to the end of August.
According to the Office of the National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate dipped to 4.0 percent from 4.1 per cent in the three months to the end of August compared with the three months to the end of July.
The ONS added that annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings dropped to 4.9 percent in the reporting period, the lowest level in more than two years.
The fall is likely to be seen as a further milestone in the return to normal levels of earnings growth by the Bank of England (BoE) and a spur to bring down interest rates at a faster pace.
At its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, the Bank cut interest rates to 4.75 percent from 5 percent in a move that has been widely expected as inflation remains within the 2 percent target of the BoE.
Wednesday, November 13
U.S. to publish inflation report
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics will on Wednesday release the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of October.
The consumer price fell to 2.4 percent year-on-year up from 2.5 percent it stood in August but rose on a month-on-month basis by 0.2 percent.
The year-on-year decline boosted the odds of the Fed to further cut rates which it did by a quarter percentage points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75 percent.
This marks the second time the Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rates, after cutting them down by an unexpected 50 basis points in September 2024 as prices cool and inflation within the 2 percent target band range.
Analysts are betting on a further decline in the CPI on the emergence of former President Donald Trump as the 47th leader of the World’s largest economy.
Read also: CBN engages treasurers on inflation, interest rate strategies
Friday, November 15
Nigeria expects October’s inflation rate
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be releasing Nigeria’s inflation report for October on Friday.
In September, Nigeria’s persistent battle with inflation reignited, with the consumer price index surging to 32.70 percent, a sharp reversal from the two-month decline witnessed earlier on petrol price hike.
According to the NBS, the Consumer’s Price Index increased to 32.70 percent in September 2024 from 32.15 percent inAugust 2024.
In the same vein month-on-month inflation rate for September 2024 went up 0.30 percent to 2.52 percent, from percent recorded in August 2024.
Nigerians experienced an upward review of PMS prices from N950/Litre to N998/Litre in Lagos and as high as N1,003 in northeastern states in October, the second increment in two months.
Analysts project that the further hike in fuel prices will elevate inflation rate for the month of October.
“In the coming months, we anticipate an uptick in core inflation, as further increases in PMS prices are likely to pressure the energy and transport inflation. Currently, PMS prices are above N1,000.00 in most states in the country,” Analysts at CardinalStone Research said in its October inflation report
“Overall, we project that headline inflation will reach 33.0 percent In October 2024 vs 32.7 percent in September 2024,” the report stated.
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