A flurry of crucial economic indicators will be released this week, the UK will release its unemployment data, while the United States (US) will publish its inflation report. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics will release its debt stock for Nigeria in the second quarter.
These reports, along with other data from Nigeria, will provide a comprehensive overview of economic trends and developments.
Monday, September 9
NBS to release foreign trade in goods Statistics report
The National Bureau of Statistics will release a report showing the volume of trading activities Nigeria had engaged in the second quarter of 2024.
“By keeping rates high, the bank is hoping to discourage borrowing and cool the demand pressures that were helping drive up prices of homes, cars, and other items.”
Between January to March of 2024, total merchandise trade in Africa’s most populous nation stood at N31.8 trillion in Q1, an increase of 46.3 percent over the value recorded in the preceding quarter and rose by 145.6 percent compared to the value recorded in the corresponding period of 2023.
Read also: Economic struggle: NBS reports slight relief, but is it enough?
In the same period, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N6.52 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, the sixth straight quarter with a 79.1 percent increase from N3.64 trillion in the last quarter of 2023. It also jumped from N20.9 billion on a year-on-year basis.
It said exports trade in Q1 was dominated by crude oil exports valued at N15.4 trillion representing 80.8 percent of total exports while the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N3.68 trillion accounting for 19.20 percent of total exports; of which non-oil products contributed N1.78 trillion or 9.28 percent of total exports.
China ranked highest among the top trading partners on the import side in Q1, followed by India, the United States of America, Belgium, and The Netherlands.
Tuesday September 10
UK to release unemployment rate
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) will release its August unemployment rate on Tuesday.
Unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.2 percent in July from 4.4 percent in June, the lowest since February.
The Bank of England said it would continue to keep a close eye on wage growth when it cut interest rates on August 1 after keeping them at a 16-year high of 5.25 percent for nearly a year.
Also, regular pay growth slowed to 5.4 percent in July from 5.8 percent, while wages are still rising faster than the BoE would like, real pay grew at the fastest rate in three years, and investors trim bets on rate cuts as the job market is resilient.
Read also: What Libya’s oil shutdown means Nigeria, OPEC
OPEC to release monthly oil report
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release the monthly oil data for August on Tuesday.
In July, Nigeria’s output only increased slightly to 1.3 million barrels daily from 1.276 million barrels pumped daily in June 2024.
The data on Nigeria’s crude oil production provided above is based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities.
According to secondary sources, Nigeria’s daily average crude oil production in June was 1.386 million barrels per day (bpd), marking an increase of 16,000 barrels compared to May’s figure of 1.369 million bpd.
Both data negate President Tinubu’s announcement on August 4, 2024, that Nigeria’s oil output had surged to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), signalling a significant recovery in the country’s oil industry following years of disruptions.
Despite a decline in production reported by secondary sources, Nigeria maintains its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, with Libya following closely, producing 1.175 million bpd in July.
This ongoing shortfall hampers the revenue generation efforts of President Tinubu’s administration. Heineken Lokpobiri, minister of petroleum resources, previously stated that the country aims to reach a daily production of two million barrels next year, but how this will be achieved remains uncertain as the outlook appears bleak.
Wednesday, September 11
US to release August’s inflation report
The United States Bureau of Labour Statistics will be releasing the country’s inflation report for July on Wednesday.
Consumer prices in the US rose at the slowest pace in more than three years in July, bolstering the case for the central bank to start cutting interest rates.
Overall, prices rose 2.9 percent over the 12 months to July, the smallest annual increase since March 2021 and down from 3 percent in June, the Labour Department said.
Analysts said the figures should help convince the Federal Reserve that high borrowing costs are working to return inflation back to normal, despite upticks in housing and food costs.
The Federal Reserve has held its key lending rate at 5.3 percent—a roughly two-decade high—since July 2023, a move that has hit the public in the form of higher rates for mortgages, credit cards, and other loans.
By keeping rates high, the bank is hoping to discourage borrowing and cool the demand pressures that were helping drive up prices of homes, cars, and other items.
But the central bank is under pressure to cut rates as inflation, which tracks the pace of price increases, has started to move closer to its 2 percent target rate, helped by lower oil prices and resolution of Covid-era supply chain crunches.
Read also: NNPC Limited net debt grows almost seven-fold to hit N156.4trn
Friday, September 13
NBS to publish Nigeria’s domestic and foreign debt report for Q2
The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the domestic and foreign debt report for the second quarter of 2024 on Friday.
Nigeria’s public debt stock, which includes external and domestic debt, stood at N121.67 trillion in the first quarter of 2024 from N97.34 trillion in the last quarter of 2023, indicating a growth rate of 24.99 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
Total external debt stood at N56.02 trillion in Q1 2024, while total domestic debt was N65.65 trillion.
The share of external debt (in naira value) to total public debt was 46.05 percent in Q1 2024, while the share of domestic debt (in naira value) to total public debt was 53.95 percent.
Lagos State recorded the highest domestic debt in Q1 2024 with N929.41 trillion, while Jigawa State recorded the lowest domestic debt with N2.07 billion.
