IMF sees Nigeria’s data gaps as obstacles to economic oversight

…Rebased GDP Report Out Soon – Resident Rep

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over critical data deficiencies in Nigeria, noting that fragmented and delayed statistics are hampering effective economic oversight.

In its 2025 Article IV consultation released on Wednesday, the IMF highlighted serious shortcomings that hinder analysis of fiscal, monetary, external, and financial sector performance, warning that the country’s macroeconomic surveillance is losing accuracy and timeliness.

“Inconsistency of fiscal data across government entities and limited coverage and granularity hamper an accurate and timely assessment of the fiscal position,” the IMF said in the report.

Adding to the concern, the Fund observed that “large errors and omissions, and delays in publishing balance of payments data complicate external stability analysis.” In an economy increasingly exposed to global shocks, the lack of reliable data on capital and current account flows undermines resilience-building efforts.

The IMF further stressed that data delays extend into the financial sector, warning that “delays in publishing financial soundness indicators constrain the assessment of financial conditions and risks.” This opacity could prevent early detection of problems in Nigeria’s banking system, inviting threats to financial stability.

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The IMF lamented that “complete publication of the rebased CPI data has been delayed, and setting December as the index reference period rather than following the common approach of using an annual index reference period inhibits the assessment of the inflation level and trend.” Such distortions in the CPI base year may obscure meaningful inflation signals and undermine Central Bank calibration.

Despite these challenges, the Fund signalled hope that the long-awaited report on Nigeria’s GDP rebasing exercise is expected soon, after over six months’ delay.

Christian Ebeke, the IMF’s resident representative in Abuja, who disclosed this during a virtual media briefing on the report, described the rebasing exercise as welcome progress.

“We do expect the revised GDP data to be released shortly,” Ebeke responded to a question raised during the press meeting.

He emphasised that rebasing is vital: “It’s actually good news that Nigeria is rebasing some of the key statistics because this helps the country to have data that are representative of how the economic situation is changing on the ground, which is ultimately very good for policymaking.”

According to him, the IMF has always supported the National Bureau of Statistics, including during the GDP exercise.

“Our work was to basically lay out international best practices that NBS can now consider in the process.” He said analysts have mostly relied on “soft data, PMI and everything else,” and stressed that the release of hard Q1 GDP numbers will give clarity on sector composition and performance, helping tax authorities, the Central Bank, and policymakers calibrate economic strategy more accurately.

To restore the credibility of its macroeconomic management, the IMF urged Nigeria to prioritise harmonising fiscal data, accelerate publication of the balance of payments, CPI, and financial sector metrics, and promptly finalise the GDP rebasing with transparency and sectoral detail.

The report stressed that harmonised data would strengthen budget credibility, improve Central Bank effectiveness in inflation targeting, and support deeper external analysis.

Ebeke confirmed that IMF technical assistance would continue to help the NBS and other agencies strengthen data processes and close current gaps.