The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Productc(GDP) upward to 3.4 percent in April 2022 and downward to 3.1 percent in 2023from 2.7 percent in January 2022 in light of the strong momentum that was observed in the last quarter of 2021.
The projection of some of these economic indicators were a reflection of the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Ari Aisen, Nigeria resident representative, International Monetary Fund (IMF), during the Stanbic IBTC Nigeria Investors’ Webinar Series that was held today.
Aisen stated that the medium to long term forecast of growth in Nigeria is not likely to be as high as it used to be except if there are occurrences that happens and changes the economic situation of the country.
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Consumer price index was projected upward to 16.1 percent in April 2022 and downward to 13.1 percent in April 2023 from 14.3 percent as at January 2022 and 17.0 percent in April 2021.
Overall fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP projection was revised downwards to 6.4 percent in April 2022 and further revised downwards to 5.9 percent in April 2023 from 6.1 percent in January 2022 and 5.0 April 2021 reflecting the subsidies.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP was revised upward from 36.7 percent in January 2022 and 37 percent in April 2021 to 37.4 percent in April 2022 and 38.8 percent in April 2023.
Current account balance as a percentage of GDP was projected to be a decline of 2.0 percent in January 2022 from
“The economy rebounded quite strongly in 2021 compared to what we projected earlier, growing by 3.4 percent, rebounding from a negative contraction the previous year. With the service sector being the main contributor of this performance,” Aisen said.
According to him, the growth was helped by the limited COVID cases which enabled resumption of activities after the sever lock down in the second quarter of 2020. This was despite Nigeria having a lower level of vaccination compared to the average of Sub-Saharan Africa.
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