Nigeria’s 2021 GDP growth beats estimates

Nigeria’s economy has recorded the highest GDP since 2014, beating analysts’ expectations as well as projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

The economy grew by 3.4 percent in full-year 2021 compared to a contraction of 1.94 percent in full-year 2020, according to data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

International financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF had predicted the economy would record a GDP growth rate of 2.4 percent and 2.6 percent for its full-year 2021.

The finance ministry also estimated growth of 2.5 percent and the central bank’s projection was for 3.1 percent growth.

After the pandemic-induced recession of 2020, Africa’s biggest economy came out of its worst recession in more than 33 years, growing by a slight increase of 0.11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In 2021, the economy grew by 0.51 percent, 5.01 percent, and 4.03 percent in the first, second, and third quarters, respectively. In the fourth quarter, a growth of 3.98 percent was recorded.

According to the full-year 2021 report, the non-oil sector grew by 4.4 percent compared to a contraction of 1.25 percent in 2020.

However, the oil sector contracted 8.06 percent in 2021 compared to a contraction of 1.25 percent in 2020.

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Nigeria’s oil production declined to 1.50 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 1.57 million a day in the third quarter.

Africa’s top crude producer has not benefited from rising oil prices nearing $100 as it is battling to increase its oil production.

Sectors such as rail transport, metal ores, and electricity and gas grew 36.9 percent, 34 percent, and 27 percent, respectively. While the laggards were oil refining (-47.9%), crude petroleum and natural gas (-8.3%), and mining and quarrying (-7.7%).

The World Bank expects the economy to expand by 4.2 percent in 2022, the IMF 2.7 percent, the central bank 2.86 percent, and the government project a growth of 4.2 percent.