In 2012, Oscar Onyema, former chief executive officer of the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), now Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), set a $1 trillion market capitalisation target for the exchange by 2016.
Twelve years after, however, the market is far off that target. In naira terms, the market capitalisation is a little below N60 trillion mark and just around $36 billion.
Realistically, the easier target for the NGX to meet is a $100 billion market capitalisation, which would mean a flurry of listings on the exchange, including by giants such as the Tolaram Group, Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertilizer Limited, and Globacom Limited, as well as technology companies.
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With a market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio of around 17.5 percent, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is shown not to be a significant driver of the Nigerian economy.
However, the capital market has shown impressive resilience. While the Nigerian economy grew by 2.74 percent in 2023, the stock exchange achieved its best returns since 2020, growing by 45.9 percent that year.
The NGX was also the best-performing exchange in the world in 2020, with a 50 percent growth rate, in contrast with a 1.8 percent GDP decline experienced in Nigeria that year.
The market provides Nigerians with avenues to participate in wealth creation through equity investments, dividend earnings, and portfolio growth. This is evidenced by some of the returns afforded to shareholders over the years. For example, Dangote Cement, since listing on the NGX in 2010, has distributed about N2.83 trillion in dividends to its shareholders.
During the commemoration of its 10th anniversary of listing on the Nigerian Exchange in May 2024, it was noted that Seplat Energy had paid about $575 million in dividends to its shareholders since 2014. This figure has surpassed $600 million since then.
Nigerian publicly listed firms distributed over N1.5 trillion in dividends for the 2023 financial year, which suggests how much wealth these companies create for retail and institutional investors.
Apart from wealth creation, the ability to raise equity financing is another perk for companies listed on the exchange. According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Nigerian banks raised about N1.26 trillion through their public offers and rights issues in 2024 as they try to comply with their new capital base guidelines.
Following this analysis, what then are the pathways for this target?
Oil and Gas Listings
On the NGX, Oando, Seplat, and Aradel – three upstream oil and gas companies – have a gross market capitalisation of about N6.3 trillion. However, there are over 30 upstream oil companies which hold oil mining leases, with far higher production capacity and by extension revenue than Seplat, Oando, or Aradel.
For example, South Atlantic Petroleum Limited, owned by TY Danjuma, holds a 15 percent stake in OML 130, which encompasses the Akpo and Egina oil fields—among the country’s largest oil-producing assets.
In October 2024, Aradel Holdings was listed on the NGX with a N3.05 trillion market capitalisation. The group recorded a net profit of N110.6 billion, which came from its production capacity of 13,250 barrels per day and its 11,000 barrels per day modular refinery.
Using the relative valuation model based on their asset size, Sapetro and Aiteo each has a valuation that is worth more than N2.28 trillion. The listing of just these two companies can raise NGX’s market capitalisation by N6 trillion, or $3.4 billion. This would push the NGX’s market capitalisation to N66 trillion.
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Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertiliser Listing
Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser Limited, has repeatedly stated that he has plans to carry out a dual listing for both the refinery and fertilizer company. In a media round in July 2024, he stated that there were plans to list the refinery on the NGX and the London Stock Exchange by the first quarter of 2025.
Although Dangote says the refinery cost him $20 billion to build, Bloomberg values it at around $18.6 billion. If the refinery is listed on the NGX with that same valuation, it would boost the NGX’s market capitalisation by N32.55 trillion.
Bloomberg values the fertilizer plant at approximately $3 billion (N5.25 trillion). Should both plants be listed on the NGX, they could collectively raise the market capitalisation to an estimated ₦103.8 trillion.
Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited
Since inception in 1989, it is reported that NLNG Limited has paid around $18 billion in dividends to the federal government through NNPC Limited. The federal government presently holds a 49 percent stake in NLNG, with TotalEnergies, Shell, and ENI holding the remaining 51 percent stake.
Between 2008 and 2014, the company contributed approximately 4 percent to Nigeria’s GDP, highlighting its significant impact on the nation’s economy. Currently, NLNG has a production capacity of 22 million tonnes per annum, which is projected to hit 30 million tonnes per annum after NLNG Train 7.
Using the relative valuation model based on the valuation of the world’s largest natural gas companies, such as Qatargas and Cheniere Energy, NLNG is projected to trade on the NGX with a $5 billion market capitalisation (N8.75 trillion). This would boost the market’s capitalisation to N112.55 trillion.
Tolaram Group
Tolaram Group is currently one of Nigeria’s largest consumer goods companies. Their subsidiaries include: Dufil Prima Foods, Multipro Consumer Products, Colgate-Palmoilve Tolaram, LekkiPort LFTZ Enterprise, TG Arla, Kellogg Tolaram Nigeria, Addmie Nutrition Limited, Lucky Fibres, and Guinness Nigeria.
In 2021, Dufil Prima Foods, makers of Indomie, reported a revenue of N306.8 billion as well as a profit of N13.1 billion. On NASD, which is the unlisted equities market, Dufil Prima has a market capitalisation of N60.8 billion. Guinness Nigeria, a listed subsidiary of Tolaram, has a market capitalisation of N142 billion.
If Tolaram Group lists some of its holdings on the NGX, it could boost the market capitalisation by as high as N1 trillion, taking the market cap to N113.55 trillion.
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Nigerian Bottling Company Limited
In 2011, when Nigerian Bottling Company Plc delisted from the NGX, it had a valuation of N20.3 billion, representing N47 per share.
However, since 2011, Nigerian Bottling Company, now fully owned by Coca Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, has grown in leaps and bounds. Since delisting, the company has reportedly invested $1.5 billion in Nigeria, with plans to invest a further $1 billion.
When Coca-Cola delisted from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), its market capitalisation stood at approximately $130 million. In 2022, the company reported a per capita consumption rate of 74 servings in Nigeria, translating to around 15 billion units sold based on an estimated population of 202.7 million.
Although the company does not publish its financial statements, its annual revenue is estimated to exceed N2 trillion. Hence the company could add a further N250 billion to the NGX’s market capitalisation, boosting the market cap to N113.8 trillion.
Globacom Limited
In the past, Globacom Limited was Nigeria’s second largest telecommunications company in terms of subscriber base. However, a recent audit carried by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shed off 40 million inactive Glo subscribers, thus bringing their number of subscribers down to 19.7 million.
However, the company still owns the 9,800 km GLO-1 submarine cable, which runs from London to Lagos, and was built with $800 million. Unlike its competitors, Glo does not lease. The company owns and operates its 8,700 towers across Nigeria, thus significantly boosting its asset size.
If Glo lists on the NGX, its market capitalisation would not be less than $1 billion (N1.75 trillion). Listing at this valuation could boost the NGX’s market capitalisation to N115.55 trillion.
Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals Limited
Indorama Eleme is Nigeria’s foremost petrochemical company and was the country’s largest fertilizer producer until Dangote. At the moment, Indorama Eleme owns the world’s largest single train fertilizer plant, with a production capacity of 1.4 million tonnes per annum. The company owns two plants which produce around 2.8 million tonnes of urea per year.
It also owns a port terminal in the Onne Port which it uses to facilitate urea export from Nigeria.
The company was in talks to list on the NGX in 2017, aiming to bring its investments in Nigeria to $4.2 billion by 2020.
In 2024, Indorama received a $1.25 billion financing package from the IFC. Based on its own 2020 estimates, Indorama may list on the NGX at a valuation of $4.2 billion (N7.35 trillion), bringing it cumulatively to N122.9 trillion.
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Olam Nigeria
Olam is Nigeria’s largest non-oil exporter, with cashew, cocoa beans, and sesamum seed being its major export commodity. In Nigeria, the group through its subsidiaries, Olam International and Olam Holdings, own nine companies, including Outspan Nigeria, Caraway Africa Nigeria (makers of Fresh Yo), Olam Sanyo, OK Foods, Crown Flour Mills, Olam Flour Mills (formerly Dangote Flour Mills), Olam Hatcheries, and Quintessential Foods Nigeria formerly BUA Flour Mills).
Olam is also the producer of Mama’s Pride rice in Nigeria
Applying the relative valuation model, BUA Foods emerges as Olam’s closest competitor in terms of asset size and revenue, with a current market capitalisation of ₦7.11 trillion. Should Olam consolidate its Nigerian subsidiaries into a single entity and proceed with a listing on the NGX, the newly formed group would likely debut with an estimated market capitalisation of $4.1 billion (₦7.1 trillion).
This would bring the NGX’s market capitalisation to N127.1 trillion.
NNPC Limited
The prospect of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited listing on the NGX appears uncertain from an observer’s standpoint. Nevertheless, both the federal government and the NNPC have repeatedly emphasised their intentions for the state-owned oil company to go public.
This plan mirrors the precedent set by Saudi Aramco, which debuted on Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange in 2019, raising $29.4 billion through the sale of a 1.5 percent equity stake.
NNPC, with its expansive portfolio of 22 oil mining leases and seven oil prospecting leases, holds the largest stake in Nigeria’s oil and gas production. The company also operates three refineries and maintains a minority interest in Dangote’s refinery.
In the 2023 financial year, NNPC reported a net profit of N3.3 trillion, solidifying its position as Africa’s largest national oil company by asset size. Should it proceed with a listing on the NGX, conservative estimates peg its potential market valuation at $30 billion (₦52.5 trillion).
All of these listings have the potential to push NGX’s market capitalisation beyond $100 billion.
“We need to get more companies to list in the NGX,” said Ike Ibeabuchi, a emerging markets analyst.
“It enhances firms’ chances to raise capital, promotes transparency of companies’ operations, and leads to economic growth. But we need to create value for investors.”
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