The fertility rate in Nigeria is on a slow decline. This is despite ranking 16th on a list of countries with the highest fertility rates. Fertility rate is simply the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to live from birth until the end of her reproductive life, and if she were to experience adequate age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime. The average global fertility rate is 2.4 children per woman, while Nigeria’s average fertility rate is 4.67 (April 2021). However, is in comparison to 5.3 in 2019, 5.1 in 2017, 6.2 in 1990, and 6.8 in 1980. Recent forecasts predict that Nigeria’s fertility rate will be 1.7 in the year 2100.
There are multiple concomitant factors that contribute to this decline; these include but are not limited to the following:
Decreased male fertility: It is widely reported that there has been a decline in sperm concentration, sperm count and sperm quality globally. The African male population has experienced up to 72% decline in sperm concentration in the last 50 years. There is a recognized “infertility belt” which stretches from West Africa, through Central to East Africa, where subfertility/high infertility rates of up to 30% are reported; this is much higher than the global average of 8–12%. Infertility in this region has been attributed to several factors such as poorly treated sexually transmitted infections (iSTIs), epidemic diseases like malaria, Schistosomiasis and viral infections, hormonal abnormalities, consumption of excessive alcohol, tobacco smoking, exposure to pesticides and heavy metals, and reports of higher concentrations of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in the semen of infertile Nigerian men, etc. AFB1 is consumed in foods that are contaminated by fungal moulds.
Increase in female education: Multiple studies in sub-Saharan Africa have shown a clear correlation between female education and declining fertility rates. For each year of schooling gained by a woman, there is a 7% point reduction in the probability of teenage birth and a 6% point decrease in the probability of marriage. These are significant figures. Women with 8 years of schooling have a fertility rate which is 53% lower than those with no schooling at all. The economic theory for this suggests that more educated women have higher opportunity costs of bearing children in terms of lost income, and educated women now have more bargaining power when it comes to desired family size. Educated women are also more knowledgeable about pregnancy, prenatal care and child health, hence might have lower fertility because of greater confidence in the survival of the child.
Read also: What you should ask your doctor about infertility
Increased use of contraception and family planning: The uptake of modern contraceptive methods is relatively low in Nigeria, with the most common contributory factors being a lack of knowledge on available options and the patriarchal nature of society. Only 19% of Nigerian women aged 15-49 use contraception for limiting and spacing of birth. However, this has slightly improved from previous years- 10% in 2012, 11% in 2013. This is in comparison to 57% of married women in Algeria, and 75% in Sweden. In rural areas, there has been an increase in the provision of family planning services, through community-based sensitization, education, counseling and delivery services.
The decline of the economy: The cost of nurturing and raising a child is on a rapid incline. Since the 1980s, the country has experienced an economic downturn, which has subsequently led to a consistent decline in desired family sizes. To put it in context, the global cost of diapers rose by 8.7% in the 12-month period leading up to April 2021; and the estimated mean price of infant formula per 900-g container of the lowest price of economy brands range from US$15 to US$18 globally. In parallel, the global prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding increased from 36% in 2000 to 43% in 2015, as it has been estimated that feeding a child with an economy brand of formula for the first 2 years of life instead of breastfeeding would cost on average over 6.1% of a household’s wages.
Fertility rate is closely monitored, analyzed and forecasted by the World Health Organisation and World Bank, due to the impact of fertility rates and population growth on the socio-economic and geopolitical landscapes of many countries. There is evidence that the decline in fertility/decrease in population growth could have several benefits for the population as it creates a window of opportunity for economic growth, national savings rates, and investment. There is a proven positive correlation between fertility decline and improvements in health, education, female labour market participation, and economic benefits.
