If, as all political scientists agree, the most distinctive characteristic of the state is the monopoly of the use of force, then Nigeria has failed. It is buffeted by insecurity from all sides. The ragtag but deadly terrorist group, Boko Haram (now routed and supplanted by the deadlier but well-organised Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)) has held sway in the northeast, effectively challenging the legitimacy of the state. Across the entire northwest, bandits roam the states killing, terrorising, and kidnapping people unchallenged. Marauding Fulani herdsmen have laid siege to the peoples across north-central Nigeria massacring them at will even as the government conveniently looks away and threatens the people being killed to give up their land or face more killings. In other parts of the country, kidnapping for ransom is the new normal.
Even as the military is stretched thin and has shown clear signs of incompetence and incapacity to make a dent in the insecurity in the country, a politically and emotionally insensitive president has been stocking the flames of disunity by his appointments, policies, and uncouth utterances. For instance, while killings by Islamic terrorists, Fulani herdsmen, and kidnappings have continued unchallenged, the government has deployed disproportionate and lethal force in dealing with an irritating but otherwise peaceful group of separatists in the southeast of the country. Since 2017, it has employed extrajudicial murders and assassinations in trying to suppress the group – Independent People of Biafra (IPOB). The unintended consequence was that the government turned the leader of the group – someone considered rude, tactless and a rabble-rouser – into a hero and the group has now taken up arms against the state, worsening the insecurity in the country. Even the relatively peaceful southwest region is currently being racked by separatist agitations.
It is not just security alone. Virtually all socio-economic indices rank Nigeria as one of the worst-run countries on earth. The economy has gone into recession a record third time in six years. In 2018, the country overtook India as the World Poverty Capital with a record 87 million of its citizens living in extreme poverty and six Nigerians slipping into extreme poverty every minute. The unemployment rate is the second-highest globally at 33.3% with youth unemployment at a record-breaking 54.40%. The country also has the highest number of out-of-school children in the world at 13.2 million and has one of the worst maternal mortality rates and health outcomes globally. The fragile state index ranked Nigeria 12th with a score of 98.0 while the relatively new Chandler Good Governance Index ranks it 102 out of 104, making it the third-worst governed country in the world. Nigeria currently is like the state of nature where life is nasty, brutish, and short. Functionally or empirically, the Nigerian state has failed. It remains a state today only because of juridical recognition.
Changing priorities
Despite the worsening security and economic conditions, however, the government is more interested in regulating and banning social media, outlawing protests and dissents, shrinking the civic space, dismantling all democratic institutions, and becoming an authoritarian government.
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Luckily for it and unlike previous times, there has been a shift or change in priorities by Western countries. Since the early 1990s, the West has forced through an era of democratisation that saw the dismantling of many authoritarian systems in Africa. They kept the pressure on Nigeria and other laggard countries to ensure their fragile democracies work and that they respect human rights. However, recent events and the internal politics of Western countries, which are being heavily influenced by a resurgence of far-right ideology, have shifted their priorities to immigration, counterterrorism, and China. The Trump administration heralded this shift when it jettisoned America’s long-held foreign policy goals of promoting democracy and human rights for his ‘America First policy. Nowhere is this felt more than in relations with Mexico where Trump got Mexico to guard its border with the US and prevent the influx of Central Americans in exchange for America staying out of its business completely.
Authoritarian systems took note and are exploiting this to the fullest. Turkey, for instance, has perfected the art of threatening the European Union with the release of hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern refugees it is harbouring into the EU in the event of any disagreement. Of course, this sends the EU into hysteria.
Last month, after Spain allowed Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario Front, which campaigns for the independence of Western Sahara, into the country to be treated for Covid-19, Morocco got angry and sent Spain a warning by allowing over 8000 African migrants to cross into the Spanish town of Ceuta unimpeded. Spain and the EU went into panic, sending soldiers to contain the situation. Ghali promptly left Spain to placate Morocco.
Similarly, the US and EU, which have always pushed for a democratic transfer of power through credible elections in Congo DR chose to maintain stability over promoting democracy by accepting the results of an obviously rigged election in 2018.
Going rogue
The changing priority of the West and the Covid-19 lockdown encouraged the Nigerian government, which had always been flirting with authoritarianism all along, to go the whole hog. Haven gotten away with the October 20, 2020 massacre of protesters at Lekki, it is now baring its fangs on the rest of society, desperately trying to put an end even to the appearances of freedoms and rights guaranteed by the constitution. Virtually all democratic institutions (from the courts to parliaments) have been upended and function only to affirm the wishes of the government. There are no pretences anymore. Rumours of martial law and suspension of the constitution are everywhere. And like Turkey, Morocco, and Mexico, the Nigerian government is using its huge population (over 209 million) and the massive global immigration catastrophe it could cause to blackmail the US, UK, and EU into silence or inaction. Even with the country coming apart at the seams, the government’s control of oil resources will still give it enough resources to continue to control the army and play an outsized role in the coming bedlam. No wonder despite fighting unwinnable wars on many fronts already, Buhari is still threatening war on the Southeast for daring to nurse separatist feelings.
Nigerians fighting for democracy and the respect of human rights have been accustomed to receiving strong support and help from the US, UK, and EU. This time, however, no such help is forthcoming. Priorities in these countries have changed and they will prefer stability to the promotion of democracy or human rights. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, we are on our own and must fight our battles ourselves.
