• Thursday, December 05, 2024
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Taiwo Oyedele’s crown of thorns, EIU forecast on Nigeria and Jonah’s message to Nineveh

The debate over the proposed tax reform is not likely to abate soon. Too many interests seem to swell around it. But some jobs are not as easy as they have negative appellation affixed to them. That seems to be the lot of the man on whose shoulders the government at the centre has sent out to go and convince the army of doubting Thomases out there. What a crown of thorns! Again, what does the Nigerian ruling class make of the latest forecast by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)? Just the usual laissez-faire attitude?

Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Tax Reform Committee

The debate over the proposed tax reform is not likely to abate soon. Too many interests seem to swell around it. But some jobs are not as easy as they have negative appellation affixed to them. That seems to be the lot of the man on whose shoulders the government at the centre has sent out to go and convince the army of doubting Thomases out there. What a crown of thorns! Again, what does the Nigerian ruling class make of the latest forecast by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)? Just the usual laissez-faire attitude?

“Has Oyedele abandoned such preachments to now align with the government in robbing Peter to pay Paul?”

The ‘Jangolova’ over tax reforms

Either in the days gone by or now, those who chase people about for tax or those who collect taxes for governments are not known to be loved by many citizens. That was the case of a man in the Bible whose name was Zacchaeus. He was a well-known chief tax collector and also very rich.

His wealth may have compounded his case, as his compatriots may have seen him as one who had profited from the sweat of others through his ‘loathsome job.”

In the days when he operated, the job he held was considered as a sinner’s job. That was why, when Christ decided to go for a dinner in Zacchaeus’ house, eyebrows were raised by bystanders who mocked, “He has gone to be with a man who is a sinner.”

In the last few days, one issue has dominated the media space in Nigeria, and that is the tax reform bill that has already passed through second reading at the nation’s bicameral legislature.

The man, who has taken the burden to explain to Nigerians what the bill was actually aimed to achieve in the country and for the country, is Taiwo Oyedele, chairman, Presidential Tax Reform Committee.

Oyedele has been an expert in tax matters and had worked in many reputable organisations, including PwC, before he was headhunted by President Bola Tinubu to head the committee.

He has been an advocate of responsible taxation, in which case he believes government must be reasonable enough not to overtax the people and that money collected through taxation must be judiciously utilised to better the lots of the citizenry.

Has Oyedele abandoned such preachments to now align with the government in robbing Peter to pay Paul? That has been the question many people are asking since the imbroglio over the Tax Reform Bill began.

While the debate over the desirability or otherwise of the bill continues, many citizens are saying that they have no problem with the government collecting all forms of taxes; their only concern is the seeming opacity in the deployment of the tax proceeds for the development and growth of Nigeria.

Today, Oyedele hops from one television station to another, explaining the harmlessness of the proposed bill. He also addresses the print media to put a lie to the demonisation of the bill in some quarters by those he believes may not have sat down to critically look into the womb of the bill.

Oyedele’s assurances that the reforms would ensure equity and fairness in revenue collection and disbursement have continued to be described by pessimists as sheer bunkum. But does anyone blame the doubting Thomases?

Recent experiences have proven the saying that it is not the same humility of voice when a borrower approaches a lender on the day of his desperation that normally accompanies him when it is repayment time.

For instance, on the day of the epochal “subsidy is gone” declaration was made, Aso Rock was beside itself with celebration. But five months to two years after the pronouncement was made, Nigeria is writhing in excruciating pain!

While Oyedele is pushing and preaching, the political leadership of the North is opposing his message vehemently. A major area of the northern elements’ grouse is the Value Added Tax (VAT). They have urged the federal government to give them more time to think through the proposed reforms.

Are they the only ones that smell a rat in the proposal? By no means.

But at a public forum recently to explain to Nigerians the goodies in the reform to sub-national government, Oyedele tried to sheath their sword.

He mentioned about 10 benefits, saying that the bill proposes: “The federal government will cede 5 percent of VAT revenue to states; transfer of income from the electronic money transfer levy exclusively to states; Repeal of the obsolete stamp duties law and re-enactment of a simplified law to enhance the revenue of the states; right to tax limited liability partnerships by states and anti-avoidance provision to prevent abuse; more equitable model for VAT attribution and distribution; and tax exemption for state government bonds to be at par with Federal Government bonds.”

While the ping pong continues around the issue, it is safe to say at this point that the Federal Government looks set to implement the reforms, but “the taste of the pudding,” as it is said, “is in the eating.”

Read also: Senate suspends action on tax reform bills as pressure mounts

EIU as economic Nostradamus to Nigeria

Many years ago, a man was sent to deliver an important message to a nation called Nineveh. At that time, the country was given to all manner of licentious life that displeased the Creator. The permissive lifestyle became a serious concern to God, so he determined to first warn them before visiting them with fury.

He chose a man, Jonah, to deliver a ‘repent or perish’ message.

After the initial hesitation, Jonah willy-nilly went into the city and said, “In 40 days, Nineveh shall be overthrown.” What happened thereafter is now a piece of history, from which a huge lesson could be learnt.

Like Jonah, a prophet whose words were seen as credible, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has over the years stamped itself as a credible voice in mirroring the socio-economic and even political future of countries. Its advisory on the state of any nation’s economy is often taken very seriously.

It is against this backdrop that its latest insight into Nigeria’s economic future has become a matter of concern and one that should jolt the political leaders into positive actions.

In recent times, the EIU has been releasing reports on the socio-economic and political health of Nigeria. While some of the reports have made Nigerian leaders clink glasses in celebration, some have also rankled them.

In March, for instance, EIU highlighted five key risks for Nigeria that could severely impact the attainment of important goals of peace, economic stabilisation, and development in the months ahead.

It listed the risks to include the high possibility of Nigeria moving too fast on market reform and thereby unleashing mass unrest; the highly probable likelihood of social unrest that forces the government to make concessions on its reform agenda; strikes that bring the economy to a halt.

Others are at risk of the Naira crossing N2000/$ by the end of the year, as well as the moderate risk of Boko Haram activity spreading from the northeast to central Nigeria. It rated the risk of the Naira passing N2,000/$ by year-end as highly probable and with high impact.

In its latest report released Tuesday, it foresaw a Nigeria that could be among the world’s most difficult places over the next five years.

Mind you, this is the same country that was touted some years ago as harbouring the happiest set of people on earth. What do we see today? Human beings like corpses all over the place, pummelling by hunger and abject poverty.

Among other points to strengthen its argument, EIU said: “The size of the bureaucracy will, if anything, increase. Structurally, institutions are sclerotic and dysfunctional on multiple levels, with corruption, politicisation of the judiciary, rampant instability, and wide infrastructure gaps all drawbacks to the business environment.”

It held that “The 2027 election cycle starts early, with the opposition kicking into gear to build support and the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), moving to placate disillusioned northern allies. The political environment is tense during the 2027 general elections. We expect the president, Bola Tinubu, to lose power owing to public frustration over high inflation.”

Those who have followed the Nigerian trajectory are not surprised at the forecast; they strongly believe that sooner than later something will give.

The high level of hunger in the country is breeding an army of angry citizens. The northern part of the country is already feeling the heat, with many more frustrated youths daily enlisting in dangerous organisations, according to reports.

Like Nineveh, that heeded the warning and averted the impending destruction, would Nigeria do the right things and avoid the fulfilment of the EIU report? Let him that has an ear, hear!

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