In a nation where aspirations run high yet economic progress has stalled, Nigeria finds itself at a crossroads. Tellingly, it has faced significant economic headwinds in recent years, characterised by sluggish growth, persistently high inflation, and an overreliance on oil exports, which has strained supply and demand. As the nation embarks on an economic reset—evidenced by recent efforts at economic recalibration and data rebasing—robust reform/economic governance paired with data-driven decision-making becomes imperative.
Accurate, reliable data is essential to reveal the true state of the economy, identify critical areas for intervention, and assess policy impacts effectively. Conversely, flawed or incomplete data can lead to misguided strategies that exacerbate existing challenges. Strengthening data integrity and revitalising Nigeria’s economic reputation are therefore crucial for steering the country toward sustainable development and long-term recovery.
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Nigeria’s economic landscape
Nigeria’s economic journey has been heavily shaped by its historical dependence on oil exports. Since the discovery of oil in the 1950s, the country’s economy has leaned almost exclusively on this resource, with oil revenues fuelling public spending and infrastructure development. However, this reliance has also created a single-commodity vulnerability; when global oil prices drop—as they did during the 2014 oil price crash—Nigeria’s economy experiences significant revenue shortfalls, leading to budget deficits and economic instability. For example, in 2014, the dramatic fall in oil prices exposed the fragility of an economy overly dependent on oil, resulting in widespread economic strain and public disillusionment.
In April 2014, the NBS recalibrated Nigeria’s GDP by updating its base year and integrating new weights that gave prominence to rapidly expanding sectors like Nollywood, entertainment, and telecommunications—areas that had previously been under-represented. This exercise resulted in a dramatic increase in reported GDP, from US$270 billion to US$510 billion—an 89 percent surge—which temporarily positioned Nigeria as Africa’s largest economy, ahead of both South Africa and Egypt.
“Today, slow growth and soaring inflation are more than mere statistics—they are the tangible expressions of an economy beset by unreliable data and deep-seated public scepticism.”
Compounding these challenges, recent economic setbacks have been further exacerbated by policy missteps rooted in flawed or incomplete data. Inaccurate economic measurements have often led to misguided decisions, such as misaligned subsidy allocations or ineffective fiscal policies. A relatable example is the persistent misreporting of inflation data, which has led to policies that fail to address the true cost of living, thereby deepening public distrust and hampering efforts to stimulate growth.
Today, slow growth and soaring inflation are more than mere statistics—they are the tangible expressions of an economy beset by unreliable data and deep-seated public scepticism. This uncertainty has eroded trust, leaving citizens questioning the very foundation of policymaking and tarnishing our global reputation. Yet, at the heart of every sound policy lies one undeniable truth: robust, accurate data is the compass that guides nations toward effective decision-making and sustained progress. We contend that a comprehensive economic reset—anchored in unyielding data integrity—is not only crucial for restoring trust but is also the key to setting Nigeria on a transformative path toward sustainable development and renewed prosperity.
Read also: Nigeria GDP per capita down to $835 in 2025 – IMF
Economic reset: Rebasing the economic cores
An economic reset entails a fundamental recalibration of key economic indicators through the systematic rebasing of data. Nigeria is on the brink of a significant economic shift with the impending release of rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. The National Bureau of Statistics is in the final stages of this process, which is expected to reflect the current realities of the Nigerian economy and account for structural changes.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of 2024, Nigeria is the fourth-largest economy in Africa. The rebasing exercise is designed to update Nigeria’s economic statistics to reflect modern realities and structural changes. This upcoming reset aims to provide a more accurate and contemporary assessment of Nigeria’s economic activities and inflation trends. Specifically:
· GDP rebasing:
The process will update the base year and recalibrate sectoral weights, ensuring that all economic sectors—especially those that have grown significantly in recent years—are appropriately represented.
· CPI rebasing:
The basket of goods and services will be modernised to reflect current consumption patterns, with an updated base year to capture the true cost of living.
Accordingly, 2019 replaces 2010 as the new base year for GDP, while 2024 becomes the reference year for the CPI. This means updating core metrics to accurately reflect the full scope of economic activities, setting the stage for informed policy decisions and strategic planning in the coming years.
Correcting Nigeria’s GDP figures is vital to capture the true state of its economy—a landscape now enriched by a robust digital sector and dynamic industries that were previously undervalued. This rebasing exercise, consistent with global practices (with even the United States expected to update its GDP this year), aims to provide a more precise economic measurement.
On the inflation front, integrating additional indices—such as services, energy, and farm produce—will yield a detailed view of price changes in critical sectors. Notably, the reduction in the CPI basket weight for food and alcoholic beverages from 52 percent to 40 percent has raised concerns, especially amid recent food price surges. This recalibration of the inflation index will equip stakeholders with a clearer understanding of emerging economic trends.
Read also: Nigeria rebased GDP: Time for real change
Furthermore, sectors like crop production, trade, and real estate are anticipated to become prominent contributors to GDP post-rebasing, with real estate likely to be more accurately valued due to its resilience. Overall, this process will reveal the true contributions of previously underestimated sectors.
For fiscal authorities, these updates are expected to prompt adjustments in key ratios such as tax-to-GDP and debt-to-GDP. Although the rebasing might result in a lower debt-to-GDP ratio, questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability persist.
Looking back, Nigeria’s previous rebasing exercise in April 2014, conducted by the NBS, was a significant step in modernising the country’s economic metrics. With the revising of the base year and the incorporation of new sectoral weights, the rebasing captured 90 percent of the overall economic structure and highlighted the growing importance of sectors such as Nollywood, entertainment, and telecommunications, which were previously under-represented.
This exercise led to a dramatic increase in Nigeria’s GDP, from US$270 billion to an astounding US$510 billion, marking an 89 percent growth and positioning Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa, surpassing South Africa and Egypt. This example illustrates how rebasing not only offers a more accurate reflection of a nation’s economic standing but also reveals emerging sectors that may have been underappreciated in past calculations.
BDI commentary: Enhancing Nigeria’s economic credibility
Accurate and transparent data is fundamental to effective governance and investment attraction. Reliable economic indicators enable policymakers to make informed decisions and build investor confidence, while a robust data system could have provided early warnings of vulnerabilities, prompting necessary economic diversification to mitigate the impact of global oil market fluctuations.
Transparent data practices are key to rebuilding Nigeria’s reputation. By enhancing data integrity, Nigeria can boost investor confidence, drive economic growth, and improve its global rankings—similar to the successes seen in Singapore and South Korea, where rigorous data reforms have attracted significant foreign investment and spurred sustainable development.
Read also: Global Africa Business Initiative calls for bold reimagining of Africa’s economic narrative
Ultimately, a transparent data framework ensures accountability in economic reporting, allowing policymakers to identify true growth drivers and design targeted interventions. This shift from reactive, short-term fixes to strategic, long-term planning—aligned with international best practices—paves the way for a more resilient and robust economic future.
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