Naira under pressure as MPC convenes for a likely rate hike

As inflation continues to race high, analysts forecast a further but mild rate hike at the monetary policy committee meeting scheduled to hold Monday and Tuesday while the naira heads to N1600 after weeks of stability.

Monday, July 22

MPC to hold its 296th meeting

The 296th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to be held today, Monday, July 22, and Tuesday, July 23, 2024.

The Olayemi Cardoso-led monetary committee has hiked rates three times this year by 750 basis points to 26.25 percent from 18.75 percent to fight galloping inflation.

Read also: Naira gains 0.95% on increased dollar supply

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 34.19 percent in June due to rising food prices, but the CBN chief said inflation is projected to moderate to 21.40 percent by the end of the year within a range of 19.84 and 25.35 percent, from 28.92 percent in December 2023, putting a further rate hike in focus.

Analysts polled by BusinessDay said the monetary committee will likely increase the country’s lending rate as it aims to tame stubbornly high inflation.

“We do not expect aggressive rate hikes like previous meetings, but we project a 50–75 basis point hike next week,” Nabila Mohammed, investment analyst at Chapel Hill Denham, said.

Also, analysts at Coronation Research said in their report on Monday that “we expect a rise in the Monetary Policy Rate (currently 26.25 percent) of between 50 and 100 bps, given the rise in annual inflation from 33.95 percent in May to 34.19 percent in June.”

The National Bureau of Statistics will release selected food prices for June 2024 on Monday.

The food inflation rate quickened to 40.87 percent in June from 40.66 percent in May on the back of continued security concerns, especially in the food-producing region of the country.

The surge in food prices is forcing consumption of staples out of the reach of many, hurting household budgets and depleting savings.

The key drivers of this inflationary pressure include notable price hikes in essential food commodities such as millet whole grain, garri, guinea corn, etc.

Others are bread, cereals, yam (water yam, coco yam, potatoes, and other tubers), groundnut oil, palm oil, etc.

NBS to release a transport fare watch for June

The National Bureau of Statistics will be releasing transport fare data for the month of June on Monday.

In May, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journeys within the city per drop increased by 0.86 percent, rising to N976 from N967.76 in April 2024.

This information is based on the Transport Fare Watch for May 2024, which was recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Read also: The invisible hands in the fall of the naira

The NBS report further highlighted that, on a year-on-year comparison, the average fare paid by commuters for an intra-city bus journey per drop rose significantly by 50.26 percent, increasing from N649.59 in May 2023 to N976.08 in May 2024.

Furthermore, the Transport Fare Watch for May 2024 noted that, in terms of geopolitical zones, the average fare per drop for intra-city bus journeys was highest in the South South and South West zones of the country at N994.17.

This was followed by the North-East zone, where the average fare was N980.33, while the South-East recorded the lowest average fare at N928.00.

“The surge in food prices is forcing consumption of staples out of the reach of many, hurting household budgets and depleting savings.”

Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) June 2024 Disbursement

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release its report on the Federal Account Allocation Committee for the month of June 2024.

According to the Bureau, the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributed N2.19 trillion in May 2024 from the total revenue collected in April 2024 among the Federal Government, States, and Local Government Councils.

It stated that the amount disbursed comprised N1.23 trillion recorded from the Statutory Account, N438.88 billion from Exchange Gain, N18.77 billion from Electronic Money Transfer Levy, EMTL, and N500.92 billion from Value Added Tax.

The FAAC accrual has been on the rise since the second quarter of 2023, after the implementation of the twin policy reforms of the President Bola Tinubu administration—subsidy removal and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market.

The allocations to the three tiers of government for April 2024 were: the federal government with a total of N390.41 billion, states with a total of N493.40 billion, and local governments with a total of N293.82 billion.

The sum of N12.45 billion was shared among the oil-producing states from the 13 percent derivation fund.

The revenue-generating agencies comprising Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) received N22.53 billion, N32.83 billion, and N25.15 billion, respectively, as costs of revenue collections.

Read also: CBN says rise in crude oil exports will strengthen the naira

Friday, July 26

AIICO Insurance to hold its 54th Annual General Meeting

The 54th Annual General Meeting of AlICO Insurance Plc will be held on Friday, July 26, 2024, at 11 a.m. at The Shell Zenith Hall, Muson Centre, Marina, Lagos.

At the meeting, the directors will seek the approval of shareholders for the payment of N1.83 billion at 5 Kobo per share as dividends.

Other business to be discussed includes the authorization of the directors to fix the remuneration of the auditors, the disclosure of the remuneration of managers, and the and the election of members of the Statutory Audit Committee.

Naira seen falling to N1,600/$

The recent fluctuations of the naira may see the local currency printing at N1,600 per US dollar despite holding steady at N1,500 for over a month.

On Thursday, the dollar was quoted at N1,566.82, an improvement from N1,581.65 quoted on Wednesday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited showed.

But the local currency lost 1.52 percent of its value against the dollar on the parallel market, also known as the black market. The dollar sold for N1,640 on Thursday as against N1,615 sold on Wednesday.

Analysts are betting on the naira to maintain the N1,500–N1,600 range given the recent intervention of the central bank in the foreign exchange market.

The CBN had recently intervened in the foreign exchange market by selling the sum of $122.67 million to 46 authorised dealers to promote stability and reduce market volatility.