In the wake of the #EndBadGovernance/#EndHunger remonstration in Nigeria, which kicked off on August 1, 2024, and swept across the country, it signalled a paradigm shift in the democratic annals of our nations. The protest, spearheaded by the teeming youths, was a powerful demand for change from the status quo.
But in a move to calm frayed nerves, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu addressed the nation, giving a televised speech. As the President emphasised his duty to the nation, it is expedient for think-tank outfits and critics to beam a critical searchlight on some of the topical interventions the administration has made to ease the public pressure and reverse the widespread angst palpable in the land. The speech not only addressed the clamour for immediate governance reforms but also showed the achievements and policy rollout of the 15-month-old administration.
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Overview of economic reforms from President Tinubu’s speech
President Tinubu outlined a series of robust economic reforms that have been implemented by his administration to strengthen Nigeria’s economy in his speech. One of the key highlights was the significant increase in government revenues, which surged to over N9.1 trillion in the first half of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
This financial improvement is partly attributed to more efficient debt management, as the percentage of revenue dedicated to debt service has been reduced from a concerning 97 percent to a moderately respectable 68 percent.
Furthermore, the Tinubu-led administration has cleared $7 billion of the $21 billion in foreign exchange obligations, which has contributed to stabilising the economy. Oil production has also increased, reaching 1.61 million barrels per day as of July 2024, a crucial development for the country’s revenue base.
Speaking further, the President highlighted efforts to attract and sustain foreign investments, with over $500 million in foreign direct investments secured since July 2024. The government’s Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative is another major achievement, generating over N2 trillion in monthly savings from reduced fuel consumption. To support this initiative, one million conversion kits have been distributed to facilitate the transition to CNG. On 12th August, the Federal Government rolled out the first phase of the initiative with pomps and expectations of hope.
“The speech not only addressed the clamour for immediate governance reforms but also showed the achievements and policy rollout of the 15-month-old administration.”
In education, the government has processed N45.6 billion in student loans, providing financial relief to students across the country. Additionally, the establishment of the Consumer Credit Corporation, with over N200 billion in initial funds, is expected to boost consumer spending and stimulate economic growth. An extra N50 billion has been allocated to both the student loan programme and the Consumer Credit Corporation, sourced from recovered crime proceeds.
Support for digital and creative enterprises has also been prioritised, with $620 million secured to fund various programs, including initiatives like the $3 million Technical Talents project, Skill-Up Artists, the Nigerian Youth Academy, and the National Youth Talent Export Programme.
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The government’s nanobusiness support program has reached 600,000 beneficiaries, with plans to assist an additional 400,000. Moreover, 75,000 micro and small businesses have each received loans of N1 million, and 10 MSME hubs have been completed, generating 240,000 jobs, with five more hubs set to be operational by October.
In the future, the government plans to build 100,000 new housing units over the next three years while also offering significant agricultural incentives, such as removing tariffs on essential goods like rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, and medical supplies for five months and acquiring mechanised farming equipment from the U.S., Belarus, and Brazil to cultivate over 10 million hectares of land. These comprehensive reforms are designed to drive sustainable economic growth and improve the overall quality of life for Nigerians.
In sum, the president spoke to issues around youth empowerment, agricultural initiatives meant to force down the price of food and reverse the ugly trend of food insecurity, and gas initiatives, especially with the plan to make Nigeria adopt compressed natural gas as the new energy for transportation. Others are infrastructural development, the newly approved minimum wage, student loans and credit schemes to support consumers, and nano, small, and medium enterprises.
Analysis of economic reforms
For starters, the tone of the speech appears conciliatory, if not reassuring and empathetic. This is not unconnected to the district and the apparent lack of confidence in anything remotely connected to the government. Many of the watchful public do not agree with some of the high points the administration credited to itself. But the president acknowledged that Nigeria’s economy has for decades remained anaemic with persistent weakness and sluggish growth. In a similar vein, the country also faces a series of misalignments that have clogged her development, including policy somersaults, structural issues, and inadequate economic planning.
We maintained that as the President’s speech emphasised the need for public order and stability in driving economic growth, we must all recognise that striking a balance between addressing immediate needs (relief measures/palliatives) and implementing long-term reforms is a delicate task.
But in this series and subsequent ones to follow, we at BDI will be taking a surgical look at proposals and the resultant impacts they have had on pacifying the frustrated public. We shall track the slew of economic reforms mentioned in the speech—fiscal reforms, investment infrastructure, and socio-economic reform changes—and then cascade it to the discernible and indirect impacts they have had on the economy.
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Stakeholders’ reactions
Despite these promising initiatives, the speech has sparked a variety of reactions, particularly concerning the government’s accountability and the potential challenges in implementing these policies. The reaction to the speech has been varied, with some prominent figures expressing scepticism about the reforms’ effectiveness. Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka was particularly critical of the government’s approach to managing public dissent, highlighting the ongoing use of force against protesters. “My primary concern, quite predictably, is the continuing deterioration of the state’s seizure of protest management—an area in which the presidential address fell conspicuously short,” Soyinka said. He also condemned the use of live bullets by security forces, warning that such measures could lead to “a prelude to far more desperate upheavals, not excluding revolutions.”
Similarly, Oby Ezekwesili, Nigeria’s former education minister, described the speech as “terribly underwhelming.” She argued that the address failed to connect with the realities faced by Nigerians and missed a crucial opportunity to reassure the public with concrete, evidence-based actions.
“Your speech reads like a page from your party manifesto and terribly fails to connect to what our citizens on the streets are angry and protesting about,” Ezekwesili commented, emphasising the need for leadership that genuinely addresses the concerns of the people.
The speech also drew criticism from other stakeholders, particularly regarding its perceived disconnect from the struggles of ordinary Nigerians. Michael Adaramoye, National Coordinator of the Youths Rights Campaign, dismissed the address as “empty,” asserting that President Tinubu is “out of touch” with the realities faced by the masses. He argued that the president’s characterisation of the protests as politically motivated was a tactic to “call a dog a bad name so that it could be harmed.”
On the other hand, economist Muda Yusuf offered a more balanced perspective, acknowledging that while the reforms may take time to bear fruit, they are essential for preventing economic collapse.
“The truth is that reforms take time to be prepared and executed. It could take an even longer time for the results to be felt. But my view is that the reforms will necessarily pull back the economy from the brink,” Yusuf said.
He also noted that despite the challenges, the government has made significant progress in areas like fiscal consolidation and tax reform, even though these efforts have been difficult and sometimes painful. “Much of the first year was devoted to corrective reforms, which were in many instances also painful. But the reforms were inevitable,” Yusuf concluded.
In conclusion, the speech touched on critical economic issues, but the systemic challenges persist, especially in translating the reforms into tangible benefits for ordinary Nigerians yearning for democratic dividends. The proposed reforms, if implemented effectively, could lay the foundation for a more prosperous and equitable society. However, the success of these reforms will depend on the government’s ability to balance economic growth with the need for social justice and to maintain the trust and support of the Nigerian people. As the nation watches closely, the government’s actions in the coming months will be critical in shaping Nigeria’s future.
