Domestic airlines are experiencing passenger surge across core northern destinations as travellers rush to connect with families for the Eid-el-Kabir (Sallah) celebrations.

This holiday-induced traffic spike comes at an operational threshold for the aviation sector, following an upward adjustment of base airfares across major local networks.

Destinations with the most passenger influx include Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano, Sokoto, and Yola.

A visit by BusinessDay at the Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal Two (MMA2) on Wednesday afternoon revealed heavily congested check-in queues and terminal halls packed with holiday travellers.

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The peak congestion was highly concentrated during the afternoon rush. Between 12:00 noon and 1:00 PM on Tuesday, Aero Contractors recorded the longest queues at the terminal, with a volume of travellers booking out flights to Port Harcourt alongside various northern hubs.

Similarly, low-baseline competitor Rano Air captured a significant share of the morning passenger load, running over 85 percent capacity on its early routes out to Kano and Kaduna.

Other carriers also posted robust passenger volumes, with ValueJet logging a full flight manifest to Port Harcourt, while Enugu Air and Arik Air both had healthy load factors on their outbound routes to Benin from the MMA2 facility.

This sudden surge in passenger traffic occurs against a backdrop of deep financial strain for the travelling public.

A parallel assessment by BusinessDay at the General Aviation Terminal (GAT), the primary operational hub for Air Peace revealed a similar pattern of high capacity utilisation driven by strategic flight scheduling.

Although the legacy carrier did not operate direct flights to the far north on Tuesday, findings showed that Air Peace ran completely full flight manifests from Lagos to Kano and Yola on Monday, with booking data indicating a 100 percent load factor for its upcoming outbound flight to Maiduguri on Wednesday.

BusinessDay recently reported that major domestic operators, including industry heavyweights like Air Peace, Ibom Air, and United Nigeria Airlines, have pushed their minimum base fares above N200,000 for a one-way economy ticket.

The sharp upward review follows a surge in aviation fuel (Jet A1) prices, which continue to hover between N1,900 and N2,000 per litre despite localised refinery interventions.

The new pricing structure applied to one-way economy class tickets across high-traffic domestic corridors, hitting business and leisure travellers on routes connecting Lagos, Abuja, Enugu, Owerri, Uyo, and Kano.

BusinessDay’s findings reveal a steep climb compared to mid-January averages. For instance, a one-way economy ticket from Lagos to Owerri, which cost an average of N150,000 four months ago, has risen to N202,000 on Air Peace and N208,000 on United Nigeria Airlines.

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A similar pattern is playing out on the Lagos–Port Harcourt route. Fares that previously ranged from N120,000 to N150,000 in mid-January have spiked to an201,900 on Air Peace and N208,300 on United Nigeria Airlines, even as legacy operators Aero Contractors and Arik Air temporarily held their baselines lower at N144,325 and N146,357 respectively.

On the key Lagos–Abuja corridor, tickets have similarly hit N201,900 on Air Peace and N208,145 on United Nigeria Airlines.

However, pricing on the nation’s busiest route remains relatively stable for competitors like Arik Air (N125,289), Rano Air (N128,145), and Aero Contractors (N128,359).

An economy class ticket from Lagos to Kano has increased from an average of N140,000 to N201,918 on Air Peace. Aero retained its fare at N128,400 and Reno at N148,145.

An airport staff member who would not want to be mentioned told BusinessDay that Aero Contractors had the most traffic this period because the airline had the most affordable fares to northern destinations.

“As you can see, the queue at Aero is more than others because their fares are quite affordable and they fly to key northern destinations such as Sokoto, Kano and Yola,” the staff said.

Ado Sanusi, chief executive officer of Aero Contractors Company of Nigeria Limited, told BusinessDay that Aero Contractors is seeing a surge in traffic this period because of the festive season.

He also hinted that Aero had introduced promo fares this festive season to enable people connect with their loved ones.

“During the festive season, we try to connect people with their loved ones. We are not taking advantage of the festive season. We try to make it as easy and affordable as possible for passengers. We have been monitoring our traffic, and we have seen a good passenger demand for the festive celebration,” Sanusi told BusinessDay.

However, Samuel Caulcrick, the former Rector of the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), told BusinessDay that off-peak passenger numbers have notably plummeted to unsustainable levels, with many aircraft operating at load factors that do not even cover fuel costs, prompting operators to consider reducing flight frequencies or deploying smaller aircraft.

He explained that with inflation severely constraining household budgets, the stark fare difference has compelled the average Nigerian to switch from air travel to road transport, despite well-documented security concerns on federal highways.

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According to Caulcrick, airlines now face a challenging scenario in which absorbing fuel costs results in financial losses, yet passing them on to passengers suppresses demand for air travel.

Abdulrasheed Mohammed, a passenger waiting to board his flight at the terminal, told BusinessDay that the current security climate leaves travellers with little choice but to bear the financial burden of flying.

“I bought my Lagos–Kano one-way ticket at N152,000. It was expensive because I didn’t buy the ticket in time,” Mohammed explained.

“It’s not easy for an average Nigerian to bring out this sum, considering the current cost of living. But I’ll rather buy the ticket for this amount than go by road, considering the current state of insecurity and kidnapping by bandits in Nigeria.”

Ifeoma Okeke-Korieocha is the Aviation Correspondent at BusinessDay Media Limited, publishers of BusinessDay Newspapers. She is also the Deputy Editor, BusinessDay Weekender Magazine, the Saturday Weekend edition of BusinessDay. She holds a BSC in Mass Communication from the prestigious University of Nigeria, Nsukka and a Masters degree in Marketing at the University of Lagos. As the lead writer on the aviation desk, Ifeoma is responsible and in charge of the three weekly aviation and travel pages in BusinessDay and BDSunday. She also overseas and edits all pages of BusinessDay Saturday Weekender. She has written various investigative, features and news stories in aviation and business related issues and has been severally nominated for award in the category of Aviation Writer of the Year by the Nigeria Media Nite-Out awards; one of the Nigeria’s most prestigious media awards ceremonies. Ifeoma is a one-time winner of the prestigious Nigeria Media Merit Award under the 'Aviation Writer of the Year' Category. She is the 2025 Eloy Award winner under the Print Media Journalist category. She has undergone several journalism trainings by various prestigious organisations. Ifeoma is also a fellow of the Female Reporters Leadership Fellowship of the Wole Soyinka Centre for Investigative Journalism.

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