Global air cargo up 9.4% in May to beat pre-COVID levels

Demand in the global air cargo market maintained an upward trend in May, as data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows it maintained a strong growth trend.

Comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, and unless otherwise noted, comparisons are with May 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern.

Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), was up 9.4 percent compared to May 2019. Seasonally adjusted demand rose by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May, the 13th consecutive month of improvement.

The pace of growth slowed slightly in May compared to April which saw demand increase 11.3 percent against pre-COVID-19 levels (April 2019). Notwithstanding, air cargo outperformed global goods trade for the fifth consecutive month.

North American carriers contributed 4.6 percentage points to the 9.4percent growth rate in May. Airlines in all other regions except for Latin America also supported the growth.

Capacity remains constrained at 9.7 percent below pre-COVID-19 levels (May 2019) due to the ongoing grounding of passenger aircraft. Seasonally adjusted capacity rose 0.8 percent month-on-month in May, the fourth consecutive month of improvement indicating that the capacity crunch is slowly unwinding.

Underlying economic conditions and favourable supply chain dynamics remain supportive for air cargo: Global trade rose 0.5% in April.

The Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) – leading indicators of air cargo demand – show that business confidence, manufacturing output and new export orders are growing at a rapid pace in most economies.

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The cost-competitiveness of air cargo relative to that of container shipping has improved. Pre-crisis, the average price of air cargo was 12 times more expensive than sea shipping. In May 2021 it was six times more expensive.

“Propelled by strong economic growth in trade and manufacturing, demand for air cargo is 9.4 percent above pre-crisis levels. As economies unlock, we can expect a shift in consumption from goods to services.

“This could slow growth for cargo in general, but improved competitiveness compared to sea shipping should continue to make air cargo a bright spot for airlines while passenger demand struggles with continued border closures and travel restrictions,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

May regional performance

African airlines’ cargo demand in May increased 24.5 percent compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease in performance compared to the previous month (34.0 percent) due to a slowdown in trade flows between Africa and Asia. May international capacity increased by 0.5 percent compared to May 2019, remaining relatively unchanged from April.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for international air cargo increase 5.3 percent in May 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease compared to the previous month (5.9 percent) due to a slight slowdown in growth in several large trade routes such as Within Asia. International capacity remained constrained in the region, down 16.9 percent versus May 2019. As was the case in April, the region’s airlines reported the highest international load factor at 75.2 percent.

European carriers posted a 5.7 percent increase in demand in May 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease in performance compared to the previous month (11.5 percent) due to a slight slowdown in growth on key trade routes including Europe – Asia and Within Europe. International capacity decreased by 17.3 percent in May 2021 versus May 2019, remaining unchanged from the previous month.

Middle Eastern carriers posted a 14.1 percent rise in international cargo volumes in May 2021 versus May 2019. This was a slight decrease compared to the previous month (15.6 percent). Seasonally adjusted volumes remain on a robust upward trend. International capacity in May was down 6.1 percent compared to the same month in 2019, a robust improvement from the 10.1 percent drop in April.

Ifeoma Okeke-Korieocha

Ifeoma Okeke-Korieocha is the Aviation Correspondent at BusinessDay Media Limited, publishers of BusinessDay Newspapers. She is also the Deputy Editor, BusinessDay Weekender Magazine, the Saturday Weekend edition of BusinessDay. She holds a BSC in Mass Communication from the prestigious University of Nigeria, Nsukka and a Masters degree in Marketing at the University of Lagos. As the lead writer on the aviation desk, Ifeoma is responsible and in charge of the three weekly aviation and travel pages in BusinessDay and BDSunday. She also overseas and edits all pages of BusinessDay Saturday Weekender. She has written various investigative, features and news stories in aviation and business related issues and has been severally nominated for award in the category of Aviation Writer of the Year by the Nigeria Media Nite-Out awards; one of the Nigeria’s most prestigious media awards ceremonies. Ifeoma is a one-time winner of the prestigious Nigeria Media Merit Award under the 'Aviation Writer of the Year' Category. She is the 2025 Eloy Award winner under the Print Media Journalist category. She has undergone several journalism trainings by various prestigious organisations. Ifeoma is also a fellow of the Female Reporters Leadership Fellowship of the Wole Soyinka Centre for Investigative Journalism.