Airlines operating between Nigeria and Dubai have lost N26 billion in the past 19 weeks since the UAE government stopped flights from Nigeria. Prior to the ban, Dubai was one of the top destinations visited by Nigerians, but many Nigerians are opting for Cairo, Egypt and Turkey for summer holidays and tourism.
BusinessDay’s analysis based on passenger traffic and frequency of airlines shuttling between the two countries puts the cumulative revenue loss for airlines at N26 billion based on an average of 6,860 passengers every week over the past 19 weeks.
UAE had in February, 2021 banned transit flights to Dubai, insisting all passengers conduct a rapid COVID-19 test and obtain a negative result within four hours of their departure time. The Nigerian government resisted, insisting that Emirates suspend its requirement for Rapid Antigen Test, and this led to a stalemate.
Following this, only Emirates flew passengers into Nigeria but refused to fly passengers out because of its new COVID-19 test guidelines. Nigeria responded by suspending Emirates from flying into Nigeria.
Since February, several airlines including Emirates, Ethiopian Airlines, Egypt Air, Etihad, Rwanda and Air Peace airlines, which fly directly or connect passengers to Dubai have lost billions of naira as a result of the stalemate between the two countries.
BusinessDay’s checks show that Emirates, which operates a daily return flight from Dubai to Lagos and Abuja, processes an average of 400 arriving passengers and 400 departing passengers on Lagos and Abuja routes. This implies that daily, the airline processes 800 passengers for both arriving and returning on Dubai-Abuja and Dubai-Lagos routes. Checks by BusinessDay show that 50percent of passengers on Emirates go to Dubai. This means out of the 800 passengers, 400 are Dubai passengers daily.
Ethiopian Airlines, which also connects flights to Dubai, operates two daily flights to Lagos and Abuja and airlifts an average of 800 passengers for return flights on both routes.
Checks show that 30 percent of Ethiopian airlines passengers connect flights to Dubai. This means the airline airlifts 240 Dubai-bound passengers daily.
For Egypt Air, which also carries connecting passengers to Dubai, the airline operates two daily flights to Lagos and Abuja and airlifts an estimated 800 passengers for return flights on both routes.
BusinessDay’s checks show that 20 percent of Egypt Air’s passengers connect flights to Dubai. This means the airline airlifts 160 Dubai passengers daily.
Etihad, which operates only Lagos daily flights to Abu Dhabi, airlifts 400 passengers on return flight and airlift about 10 percent passengers who go by road to Dubai. This implies that the airline airlifts 40 Dubai passengers.
Rwanda operates daily flights from Lagos and three times from Abuja, with passengers from daily Lagos-return flights numbering 400 and 2,800 weekly and passengers numbering 1,200 on the Abuja route. This sums it up to 4,000 passengers weekly. The airline has 20 percent Dubai passenger traffic. Therefore, in a week, the airline airlifts 800 Dubai passengers.
Air Peace, which operates three weekly flights to Sharjah and connects to other destinations airlifts an average of 150 passengers on one leg and 300 passengers on a return trip. This implies that in a week, the airline airlifts 900 passengers to Sharjah but has about 20 percent passengers connecting Dubai. This means Air Peace airlifts 180 passengers weekly to Dubai.
This means the six international airlines operating and connecting flights to Dubai airlift 6,860 Dubai passengers weekly with Emirates airlifting (2,800 passengers), Ethiopian Airlines (1,680), Egypt Air, (1,120), Etihad (280 passengers), Rwanda (800 passengers) and Air Peace airlines (180 passengers).
A one-way ticket from Lagos or Abuja to Dubai and vice-versa costs an average of N200,000. For 19 weeks since the ban was imposed, these airlines have a revenue loss of N26.06 billion on tickets that would have been sold to passengers going to Dubai.
For international travel, the airlines pay FAAN $200 as passenger service charge on a return ticket, $20 as security charge and five percent to the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, (NCAA). Since $200 is paid on a return ticket, airlines would remit $100 as passenger charge on a one-way ticket.
With an official rate of N412 to a dollar, passengers pay N41,200 as passenger service charge, N8,240 as security charge and an average of N10,000 to NCAA, totaling N59,440. This implies that on a one way ticket, passengers pay N59,440 as charges.
Therefore, for each week that the six international airlines operating and connecting flights to Dubai could not airlift about 6,860 Dubai passengers, the federal government lost N407,758,400 on charges and in 19 weeks, the government has lost N7,747,409,600.
However, passengers are already booking tickets to other destinations for summer and tourism.
Susan Akporiaye, president, National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA) told BuisnessDay that tour operators and travel agents are diverting summer passengers to other destinations.
“We are the consultants. If one door closes, another door opens. What we have noticed is that passengers now book tickets to Cairo and Turkey because passengers can get almost everything they need in these other destinations,” Akporiaye said. “During Easter, all Easter packages went to Cairo and Turkey and a bit to Ethiopia and Rwanda.”
Muharram Abdel Rahman, general manager of EgyptAir in Nigeria, said the airline has now positioned itself to airlift Nigerians with tourist visas to Cairo, in a bid to sell the city as a viable tourist destination, since Nigerians cannot presently fly to Dubai due to current restrictions put in place by the UAE government.
“We were affected by the ban but we looked for an alternative market to substitute for Dubai which is Muscat,” said Abdel Rahman.
According to him, about 40-50 Nigerian passengers travel to Muscat daily.
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