International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global airfreight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs), was flat (0%) in November 2018, compared with the same period the year before. This was the slowest rate of growth recorded since March 2016, following 31 consecutive months of year-on-year increases.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), rose by 4.3 percent year-on-year in November 2018. This was the ninth month in a row that capacity growth outstripped demand.
While international e-commerce continues to grow, overall demand faced significant headwinds.
There were signs of weakness in global economic activity; a contraction in export order books in all major exporting nations, with the exception of the US; shorter supplier delivery times in Asia and Europe; and weakened consumer confidence compared to very high levels at the beginning of 2018.
“Normally, the fourth quarter is a peak season for air cargo. So, essentially flat growth in November is a big disappointment. While our outlook is for 3.7 percent demand growth in 2019, downside risks are mounting. Trade tensions are cause for great concern. We need governments to focus on enabling growth through trade, not barricading their borders through punitive tariffs,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director-general/CEO, said.
Three of the six regions reported year-on-year demand growth in November 2018 – North America, Middle East and Latin America. Asia Pacific, Europe and Africa all contracted.
African carriers saw freight demand decrease by 7.8 percent in November 2018, compared to the same month in 2017. This was the eighth time in nine months that demand contracted. Capacity shrank 7.4 percent year-on-year. Demand conditions on all key markets to and from Africa remain weak.
Seasonally-adjusted international freight volumes are seven percent lower than their peak in mid-2017, nonetheless, they are still 28 percent higher than their most recent trough in late-2015.
European airlines experienced a contraction in freight demand of -0.2 percent in November 2018 compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 3.1 percent year-on-year. Weaker manufacturing conditions for exporters and shorter supplier delivery times particularly in Germany, which is one of Europe’s key export markets, impacted demand.
