The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released full-year 2018 data for global airfreight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) grew by 3.5 percent compared to 2017. This was significantly lower than the extraordinary 9.7 percent growth recorded in the previous year.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), rose by 5.4 percent in 2018, outpacing annual growth in demand. This exerted downward pressure on the load factor but yields proved resilient.
Air cargo’s performance in 2018 was sealed by a softening in demand in December. Year-on-year December demand decreased by 0.5 percent. This was the worst performance since March 2016. Freight capacity, however, grew by 3.8 percent. This was the tenth month in a row that year-on-year capacity growth outstripped demand growth.
International e-commerce grew in 2018, which was a positive factor for the year. Yet, there was a softening of several key demand drivers: the restocking cycle, during which businesses rapidly built up inventories to meet demand, ended in early 2018; global economic activity weakened; the export order books of all major exporting nations, with the exception of the US, contracted in the second half of 2018; and consumer confidence weakened compared to very high levels at the beginning of 2018.
“Air cargo demand lost momentum towards the end of 2018 in the face of weakening global trade, sagging consumer confidence and geopolitical headwinds. Still, demand grew by 3.5 percent compared to 2017. We are cautiously optimistic that demand will grow in the region of 3.7 percent in 2019.
“But with the persistence of trade tensions and protectionist actions by some governments there is significant downside risk. Keeping borders open to people and to trade is critical,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director-general/CEO, said.
“To attract demand in new market segments, the air cargo industry must improve its value proposition. Enabling modern processes with digitalisation will help build a stronger foothold in e-commerce and the transport of time- and temperature-sensitive goods such as pharmaceuticals and perishables,” de Juniac said.
Airlines in all regions with the exception of Africa reported an annual increase in demand in 2018.
African carriers’ saw freight demand decrease by 2.2percent, in December 2018, compared to the same month in 2017. This was significantly less than the 9.4 percent decrease in the previous month. Capacity increased by 4.9 percent, year-on-year.
It’s worth noting that seasonally adjusted international freight volumes, despite being 7.7 percent lower than their peak in mid-2017, are still 50 percent higher than their most recent trough in late-2015. Annual growth in freight demand among African carriers in 2018 decreased by 1.3 percent and capacity grew by 1 percent
