Air traffic in Africa surge as Middle East, N’America decline on capacity crunch

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2025 global passenger demand for air travel, showing that African airlines saw a 3.3 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 3.5 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 70.1 percent (-0.2 ppt compared to March 2024).

On the other hand, Middle Eastern carriers saw a -1.0 percent year-on-year decline in demand. Capacity increased 2.8 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 74.6 percent (-2.9 ppt compared to March 2024). The decline in demand is likely related to the timing of Ramadan which impacts travel patterns.

North American carriers saw a -0.1 percent year-on-year fall in demand. Capacity increased 2.0 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.0 percent (-1.8 ppt compared to March 2024).

Globally, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was up 3.3 percent compared to March 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was up 5.3 percent year-on-year. The March load factor was 80.7 percent (-1.6 ppt compared to March 2024).

International demand rose 4.9 percent compared to March 2024. Capacity was up 7.0 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 79.9 percent (-1.7 ppt compared to March 2024).

Domestic demand increased 0.9 percent compared to March 2024. Capacity was up 2.5 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 82.0 percent (-1.3 ppt compared to March 2024).

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“Passenger demand grew by 3.3 percent year-on-year in March, a slight strengthening from the 2.7 percent growth reported for February. A capacity expansion of 5.3 percent, however, outpaced the demand expansion, leading to a load factor decline from record highs to 80.7 percent systemwide. There remains a lot of speculation around the potential impacts of tariffs and other economic headwinds on travel.

“While the small decline in demand in North America needs to be watched carefully, March numbers continued to show a global pattern of growth for air travel. That means the challenges associated with accommodating more people who need to travel—specifically alleviating supply chain problems and ensuring sufficient airport and air traffic management capacity—remain urgent,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

International RPK growth slowed to 4.9 percent in March year-on-year from the 5.9 percent reported for February and from the 12.5 percent reported in January. This slowdown since January reflects in large part the final normalisation of year-on-year demand comparisons post-COVID. Asia-Pacific was the strongest performer among regions with 9.9 percent growth. Load factors fell in every region, for a -1.7 ppt overall decline.

Asia-Pacific airlines reported a 9.9 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 11.6 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.1 percent (-1.3 ppt compared to March 2024).

European carriers had a 4.9 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 6.9 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.2 percent (-1.5 ppt compared to March 2024).

Latin American airlines saw a 7.7 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 12.1 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 80.9 percent (-3.3 ppt compared to March 2024).

Ifeoma Okeke-Korieocha

Ifeoma Okeke-Korieocha is the Aviation Correspondent at BusinessDay Media Limited, publishers of BusinessDay Newspapers. She is also the Deputy Editor, BusinessDay Weekender Magazine, the Saturday Weekend edition of BusinessDay. She holds a BSC in Mass Communication from the prestigious University of Nigeria, Nsukka and a Masters degree in Marketing at the University of Lagos. As the lead writer on the aviation desk, Ifeoma is responsible and in charge of the three weekly aviation and travel pages in BusinessDay and BDSunday. She also overseas and edits all pages of BusinessDay Saturday Weekender. She has written various investigative, features and news stories in aviation and business related issues and has been severally nominated for award in the category of Aviation Writer of the Year by the Nigeria Media Nite-Out awards; one of the Nigeria’s most prestigious media awards ceremonies. Ifeoma is a one-time winner of the prestigious Nigeria Media Merit Award under the 'Aviation Writer of the Year' Category. She is the 2025 Eloy Award winner under the Print Media Journalist category. She has undergone several journalism trainings by various prestigious organisations. Ifeoma is also a fellow of the Female Reporters Leadership Fellowship of the Wole Soyinka Centre for Investigative Journalism.