When many Nigerians overwhelmingly voted for ‘change’ in the last general elections, few were fully aware of the harsh and complex road that will have to be travelled for the similitude of change to materialize. Just six months down the line, many are already questioning if, indeed, anything has changed. It is time to banish the illusions and embrace the responsibility of coping with the challenges that will be posed by the difficult and long unknown road that lies ahead if indeed anything is to change.
The president rode to electoral victory on the back of bold promises that can be grouped under three broad categories – relief, recovery and reform. The expectation from the electorate is for the government to ensure that every Nigerian has the right to a decent life and means of livelihood. To this end, under the relief mantra, the government has promised to generate 3 million new jobs annually, provide healthcare services for all and guaranty free education. These will be complemented by providing safety net for every needy citizen, tackling housing deficit and ensuring the safety of Nigerians.
The recovery phase is expected to focus on restoring good governance, building modern infrastructures, diversifying the economy and creating a value-adding economy. In the new dispensation, the government proposes for the agriculture sector to form one of the main pillars for economic diversification. The government also promised reform in a number of key areas, without which any progress made will not be sustainable.
The above-enumerated were all campaign promises, made in the heat of the moment, and designed around what the electorate wanted to hear and what an ideal society should be. Even with the best of intentions of the current administration, the actualization of these promises will not happen over four years, except a magic wand of improbable capabilities were to be applied.
There are a number of forces militating against delivering on the campaign promises. The first is government revenue. It is safe to assume that the commodity boom is now over, and that low oil prices are here to stay. This has implications for government revenue and, unfortunately, huge financial resources are needed to actualize the administration’s lofty promises. This means the current administration needs to devise a funding model that works, which usually takes time. Another factor that is a moving target is the system and structure of governance. As currently constituted, we do not have institutions that can deliver on the campaign promises, and good institutions take time to build.
Delivering change will also require the concerted effort of the different tiers of government. It is, however, unlikely that the sub-national governments that are still struggling to pay salaries due to their past fiscal brigandage will be in a position to complement the effort of the central government in the immediacy. The dependence of the sub-national governments on revenue from the centre is also a food for thought, given the outlook for oil prices. Without diversification, and reducing the cost of governance, another sub-national insolvency crisis will just be around the corner. This is a good time for the states to devise their internal growth models and take advantage of their unique endowments. The federal government may also do well to understand the needs of the different regions and tailor their interventions to meet those varied needs.
President Buhari’s administration as a matter of urgency needs to embark on wholesome reformation across-board if it is to be taken seriously. The old order of a privileged few frittering away the common wealth of the nation needs to be addressed. There needs to be visible accountability and transparency across the three arms of government, and the foundation for building sustainable institutions must as a matter of urgency now begin. The public sector, police service, and judiciary are in need of wholesome reform, so are the electoral process and the military.
The most important factor that will, however, make the actualization of the much-touted change possible is the people. Nigerians must accept that many sacrifices will need to be made, and that things will get worse before they get better. There also needs to be a total overhaul of the mindset of the average Nigerian. Since there are usually no consequences for misbehaviour, the propensity to do the wrong thing is at such an alarming rate that it will be impossible for any meaningful change to gain traction. The change starts with you.
Olugbenga A. Olufeagba
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