So it is GOODBYE 2016

Many Nigerians would want to wish 2016 a hurried goodbye because it has not been a particularly pleasant year. It is the year recession was not just a “word” but also became a sad reality in many homes. It is the year that at least 11.2 million Nigerians willing to work could not get jobs.

The year is ending with an unemployment rate at a new 5-year high of 13.9 percent. Youth unemployment is even higher at about 25 percent, dangerous for a country with a largely youthful population.

Rising unemployment in the year has been compounded by rising prices of goods and services in the year. From an average inflation of 9.6 percent, the inflation rate closed at an eleven year high of 18.5 percent in November, with economist forecasting it could close at a minimum of 18.7 percent in December. Prices of food items have been the most affected. The price of rice, bread and palm oil, and other grains, a regular staple in many Nigerian homes have almost doubled putting the feeding budgets of many Nigerians under pressure.

The year 2016 has also been a period many states went practically bankrupt as they struggled to pay the salaries of their workers. As many as 27 states could not pay salaries leaving many workers in their states practically begging to survive just as many governors went cap in hands to the federal government seeking “bail-outs” in order to pay salaries. Lagos stood out as years of developing its ability to generate revenues internally ensured that the state was able to take care of its needs without resorting to federal bailouts.

Poor power supply, a perennial challenge for Nigerians got even worse this year with power supply averaging just about 3,000MW foremost of the year despite an increase in power tariffs effected in February this year. Poor gas supply to generating plants, no thanks to militancy in the Niger Delta was generally blamed for the situation. But just as generating companies complained of poor gas supply, so also did distribution companies complained of power collection from consumers with government parastatals being some of the biggest debtors in the power sector. Owed billions of naira and burdened by inadequate gas supply as well as non-market reflective tariff, power companies were unable to meet the expectations of consumers prompting calls from some highly influential corners that the whole power privatisation programme be reviewed. This call has been strongly rejected by the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola.

This was also the year militancy resurfaced in the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) became synonymous with pipeline vandalism in the region inflicting significant damage to Nigeria’s oil assets. The impact was devastating for Nigeria’s oil revenues and the operations of oil companies in the region. Faced with already low crude oil prices, the attacks on oil facilities were a double blow for the country and oil companies. Not surprisingly, the oil and gas sector became the biggest contributor to the contraction of the Nigerian economy by the third quarter of 2016 recording a negative 22 percent growth in the period.

Manufacturing was another sector that suffered in the year mainly due to the restriction placed on 41 items from accessing dollars in the official foreign exchange window as well as a general poor access to foreign exchange to support the import of raw materials. Scarcity of dollars affected all activities in the country leading to the unofficial rate of the dollar flirting with N500 in the black market.

But it was not all bad news in 2016. The year also saw Nigeria take very significant step in becoming self sufficient in rice production thanks to the strong push by the Central Bank of Nigeria through its anchor borrowers programme. Now Nigeria is estimated to be producing about 5.2 trillion tonnes against the country’s demand of 6 trillion, putting it on the verge almost closing the country’s demand and supply gap.

There has been a significant increase in rice production in the rice growing areas of Kebbi and Ebonyi and Nigerians for the first time in a long time are talking about consuming local rice with new brand names like “LAKE” rice an acronym for Lagos and Kebbi suddenly becoming household names. If sustained, there is a good prospect that Nigeria could achieve some level of self-sufficiency in the product in 2017.

Another good news was on the security front where the gallant men of the Nigerian army, backed by the air force eventually captured Camp Zero, the reported stronghold of terrorist Boko Haram in the Sambisa forest. This was soon followed by reports of Boko Haram members surrendering to the Niger army in Niger Republic.

Perhaps, the best of the good news was the return of 21 of the over 200 Chibok girls after negotiation with Boko Haram. This was after almost 800 days in captivity in the hands of the brutal Boko Haram sect. The Nigerian government has indicated that it is still in negotiation with the sect to return the remaining girls. That will hopefully happen in 2017.

The year 2016 has in no doubt been a challenging for many Nigerian families. Many would hope that 2017 would bring better tidings. So it is goodbye 2016 and welcome 2017. Today’s edition is BusinessDay’s last publication for the year and we look forward to meeting you on the other side of 2017. We value your patronage and assure you that we will continue to remain your most authoritative source of business and financial intelligence in the country. Happy New Year! So it is goodbye 2016 but welcome 2017.