Recession, corruption, causation and correlation

The Acting Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Ibrahim Magu although not an economist seems to know the cause of the recent recession in Nigeria. On several occasions he has stated that there exists a nexus between corruption and recession. In a bid to justify the federal government’s interest in recovering stolen funds, while on Arise TV on the 11^th of February 2017, he went a little bit further by stating that about ninety percent of the current recession was as a result of corruption. In the said interview he also said “If we can lay hands on this hidden wealth, we won’t stay for more than three months in this recession. It is sufficient for us to get out of economic recession”.

I think Ibrahim Magu – at best a pseudo-economist – ought to understand that because the commission he is heading, in “acting” capacity, starts with the word “economic” doesn’t vest him with the competence of an economist. The “economic” in the commission’s name merely seeks to delineate and specify the types of crimes the commission is empowered to investigate and prosecute. Nothing more, nothing less.

It is bizarre to state unsupported with facts that ninety percent of the recession is caused by corruption. His claim is unsupported because it’s incorrect; “correlation does not imply causation.” This kind of utterance clearly shows that Magu and his employer (President Buhari) have to clearly understand what corruption is, this will help immensely. I think the corruption discourse could do with a larger dose of reason than emotion otherwise the conclusions arrived at will be wrong.

Several reputable economists, the likes of Pat Utomi, Charles Soludo and Muhammadu Sansui, to name a few, without downplaying the role of the ills of corruption and the collapse in oil prices, have consensually attributed the cause of this recession to ponderous leadership at the centre. They are also of the view that this economic slump would have been avoided despite the odds if the leadership acted timely and intelligently. As regards the possibility of the recovered loots to get the economy out of recession, Adeoye David, who is he an economist said, “the answer lies less in recoveries and more with the objectives, capacity and hence the effectiveness of our fiscal policy choices. To get the economy back on track, the focus, structure, and transmission mechanisms for government spending is a more critical factor than how funds are sourced”.

As to where Ibrahim Magu’s competence lies, the actions of EFCC seem to be a public display of incompetence and inexperience. While they are eager to publicly display pictures of suspected corrupt individuals and recovered loots, they don’t show the same gusto where it really matters, that is in the court room. Rather than accept responsibility for their ineptness, they blame judges and lawyers for aiding and abetting corruption. Many times I ask myself, if judges and the lawyers are the weak link in the fight against anti-corruption, how has EFCC been getting some convictions?

I concede that Nigeria is a fantastically corrupt country and there is an urgent need to wage war against corruption but the attempt to curb it must not be trivialised, politicised, ethicised or sensationalised, we must admit the reality that corruption isn’t exclusive to Nigeria; corruption is a global citizen. And, besides, it isn’t the sole cause of our woes.

These facts aren’t intended to justify corruption neither is it clamouring that the anti-corruption war should be downplayed. Rather it’s only trying to admonish the relevant anti-corruption agencies to realise that corruption is a serious issue which can’t be fought on the pages of the newspapers with spurious causations. It’s neither a competition for the most photo-ops nor a sitcom opera. There needs to be a strategy which will have both a short and long term effect. A strategy that will strengthen institutions rather than personalities to fight against corruption. As former President Obama said, Africa needs strong institutions not strong men. If this can’t be achieved then the anti-corruption war can never be won.

This strategy should focus strongly on preventive measures, a look at the functions of the commission as provided by the EFCC Act 2004, provides that the “commission shall be responsible for the adoption of measures which include co-ordinated preventive and regulatory actions…and control techniques on the prevention of economic and financial related crimes.” This involves a lot of brain work. Such a strategy complements efforts to recover stolen funds but more importantly it makes it extremely difficult for these same funds to be siphoned again. What use is it to mop water into a leaking bucket? A competent and equipped EFCC should be building on its past experience to seal loopholes that enable looting. Contracts provide a great avenue for looting. Yemi Osinbajo, the acting president, lately complained about contracts supposedly completed on paper but actually uncompleted. The undisclosed amount stolen from these contracts, awarded by ministries, agencies and departments of government, is so staggering “it is enough to develop countries”.

While prosecuting cases, the “how” really matters, its ridiculing when you see counsel for the EFCC amend their charges several times or when you see their witnesses giving conflicting evidences. It shows a lack of proper investigation and preparedness. Little wonder they find it difficult to secure the conviction of high profile persons. It is ironic that despite the great bureaucracy which is meant to serve as a check in our civil service, there still exist a great deal of corruption. It’s ironic also that accomplices are not being prosecuted for the alleged crimes of Adesola Amosu, Abdullahi DIkko, Sambo Dasuki etc. It’s hard to imagine the billions recovered so far were taken without the aid of some civil servants. They also either have to be prosecuted or made to face disciplinary actions.

More importantly EFCC has to follow the rule of law. The end can never justify the means. Thomas More, said that even the devil has the benefit of the law until he broke the law and to catch the devil, he wouldn’t break the law to catch the devil.

 

J. B Nwachukwu

Nwachukwu is a lawyer and a writer