Rebased GDP, debased economy and self-evident truths

Sunday, 6/4/14, was a special day for Mr Kale, the SGF( Statistician General of the Federation) and the chief priest of the GDP rebasing temple as he mounted the dais with an unparalleled air of importance to release the information that the whole world eagerly awaited: the rebased GDP of Nigeria. Nigeria at $513bn,GDP  is the biggest in Africa and 26th globally. Furthermore, services now accounts for 50% of GDP, telecoms,8.7%; oil/gas-14.3% and Agriculture ,down to 24%(from 30%). The importance of oil has declined; the role of manufacturing has increased; service is the new king and Nollywood has made a grand entry. Based on a sample of  851628 as against 83733 previously, including more industries than before, taking cognizance of spending and income in addition to output and based on 2010 as against 1990,  everybody present was pleased with the statistical feat, including the development partners who were  impressed with the methodology and outcome.

 Nigeria is now bigger, more diversified, has more accurate and current data and is thus in a better position to initiate and execute policies and programmes, attract FDIs and take its appropriate queue in the global GDP medal table.  The debt and deficit ratios are more attractive and this allows room for more macroeconomic maneuvering . It will also ensure better diagnosis and intervention by the global partners. I was also excited.

But the day after, my excitement turned into bewilderment and then sadness  as I realised that nothing has changed. On 7/4/14, I checked everything about me and my environment: my height, my bank account and other aspects of my domestic economy, power supply, roads, the policemen on duty, the number and quality of public transport vehicles, the attitude of my students and colleagues, where I live and work and the fuel scarcity situation. They were all the same; nothing had changed!  Yes; the GDP has been rebased and the economy has witnessed statistical quantum leap overnight. But the economy has been debased by several know factors and that is why the growth did not mean much. Of course, the growth did not take place on the night of 5/4/14; it is a cumulative affair  that occurred over the past 24 years especially since we started enjoying the queer phenomenon of jobless growth.

Incidentally, nothing will happen soon because of the various factors that debased and still continue to debase our economy. Thus, while we are now bigger than South Africa, we stand at 126 on the Per Capita Income table where South Africa is comfortably 69th. Of course, it stands to reason because their population is about 33% of ours and so there are fewer people to share the available resources. Nigeria is also among the most unequal nations in the world and that is why, while we have 100 extremely rich people, there are 100m extremely poor people. And we are not talking of those who worked for their money; we are talking about the pension, subsidy and oil thieves, ex presidents and governors and other rent-takers in the economy. Other factors that debased our economy include ruthless and outward-bound corruption( where the proceeds of corruption are wholly exported and used to develop already developed countries),  mal-governance;  politicians  who see the country as one huge bazaar and have politicized and monetized everything including the fate and future of the nation;  docile and alienated citizenry  who do not ask questions and an unfriendly business environment

The self-evident truth is that while the country is growing, the growth is pocketed by a connected few. That is why we are among the least developed,   and operate a generator-powered economy, because we distribute 1000 plus something megawatts when we need 170000mw. Of course we are the only country that is simultaneously a key exporter and importer of oil. That is why we are 3rd in the world poverty index. Of course, the SGF made it clear that NBS did not capture all transactions. How could they capture the fact that keke drivers collectively pay the Okota DPO, N15000 daily so as to do their job in peace; that each pays the area- boys N1700 daily or that some riff-raff in mufti collect tithe for the police at Okota roundabout.  Even the corruption in high places, subsidy payments and criminal import duty waivers cannot be captured. That is because the SGF is not a spirit; he measures what is visible and measurable.

Sometimes in history,  Israel defeated Syria without firing a shot because God played a strategic trick on the Syrians(2nd Kings, 7,6-16). In the recent past, we have been at ‘war’, fighting to be among the 20 largest economies in the world.The Minister of Trade, Mr. Aganna, will remind you that Goldman Sachs forecasted that Nigeria would be among the 25th biggest largest countries by the year 2020. Now, just like the Israelis, without firing a shot, we have achieved that target, long before 2020. We are now the biggest in Africa and among the biggest in the world.  But unfortunately, we are just big for nothing (apologies to Adeola Akinremi, Thisday, 12/4/14,p33). While I do not agree with Lai Mohamed that the data is spurious or that it was a response to the extreme poverty classification by World Bank, it is a self evident truth that we have a very large population of the poor, the unemployed, those living in darkness and a very horrible infrastructure.

In those days when we were using the British coins, Igbo people have a saying about the useless bigness of the penny(kobo) in the comity of coins. The penny  (kobo), was bigger than three-pence(toro), six pence(sisi)  and even  a shilling(ofu-ego), even though 1 shilling was made up of 12 pennies! So, whenever anybody could not justify his/her size relative to expected performance, he/she would be compared with the kobo in the comity of British coins. We are already big but we should not be big for nothing.  The government must hearken to Ban ki Moon and work towards equitable social progress, inclusive economic growth and sound environmental stewardship. We have to narrow the rich-poor gap because when the poor are awake, hungry and angry, the rich cannot sleep! We require the institutional capacity, quality governance, policy stability, infrastructure, financial market  sophistication, ease of doing business  and property rights protection before we attract investments, whether foreign or local. This is a government dominated economy and we must patronize local goods, set and enforce standards and force foreign exporters to open shops here. That is when our size will have a meaning to the man in the street; that is when we shall say goodbye to the NIS syndrome(500000 people jostling for 5000 jobs)

Even then, when shall we get to the level of India which has just organized an election for 800m people? When shall we get to the level where somebody would be jailed for 18 weeks, like Katty Gammon of Bristol for subjecting her dog, Roxy, to prolonged neglect, unnecessary suffering and death through starvation and showing limited remorse. These are the kind of things that happen in developed countries. I also note that the SGF publicly declared that without the CBN, the institution would have closed shop. What happened their parent ministry and their budget or do we not appreciate the importance of reliable statistics? And further more, my sister,Dr Okonjo-Iwealla. MOF, CME,  appears to be talking too much; even more than the Minister of Talk-Talk(Information. When does she have the time to do her job?

 Ik Muo