Nigeria: Where do we go from here; what are the options? 2

Various countries have adopted diverse strategies to tackle their socio-political challenges  at different times in history. Some fought it out(Nigeria?); some broke up(Sudan), some broke down,(Somalia) some fought, got tired of fighting and talked(Philippines, Turkey). Ultimately, the various elements must agree that it s in everybody’s interest to be together and this understanding has to become a part of the national DNA. Let us x-ray of some of these instances.

On 16/10/12, the Philippine Government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front[MILF, a separatist  movement founded 1971] signed a peace agreement  ending 40 years of bloody upheaval. During those 40 years, only about 120000 lives were lost. In contrast, during the 3-year war ‘to keep Nigeria one’ about 3m died! The agreement was preceded by 15 years of negotiations and it provided for a partly autonomous Bansmoso Region, Islamic law for Muslims only, shared resources, central government to responsibility for defense, security and foreign relations and Philippine Army to handover to local police. There are still problems with splinter and minor groups but the major conflict is gradually heading to a closure.

It was a similar scenario on 30/9/13 when the Turkish Government announced a deal to end the 30 years Kurdish war of independence. Headscarf ban was relaxed, towns could bear Kurdish names, the 10% electoral threshold that excluded Kurdish and other small parties from the parliament was lowered, Institute of Kurdish language and culture was to be established and people to be taught in their own language. Kurds consist about 20% of Turkey and in view of the deal, they have stopped their plan to ‘port’ from Turkey. About 40000 people died in the 30-year separatist war. Also, on 11/10/13, the Myanmar Government signed a peace deal with Kachin rebels[Kachin Independence Organization] ending a 17- year war of independence. The Government agreed to negotiate total ceasefire and commence dialogue, grant political rights and autonomy, resettle about 100000 displaced people and develop new political culture.  This is one of the world’s longest running insurgencies.

Coming nearer home, on 10/1/13, President Francois Bozize  of CAR and the SELEKA Rebels signed  an agreement to form a unity government and consequently, the president dissolved his government, the PM resigned and  parliamentary elections followed. Apparently, this did not work out well as evidenced by the current bloodbath in that country.  Recently, a weeklong series of activities was held to mark the 10th anniversary of the Rwanda Genocide in which about 800000 died. People remembered their dead and it was a global affair. There were no attempts to deny or distort what happened and efforts are being made to learn from that ugly past as an input into a better future. In Nigeria, we are still living in denial but that is not the issue. The real issue is that the Tutsis and Hutus share one language, one culture, one tradition and one mode of dressing. They only have different looks and appearances and yet, the unfortunate incident took place. It becomes obvious that trouble is not caused by diversity; even people who are the same can create trouble for themselves

Nigeria has a lot in common with the old Sudan: large land mass, Moslem north and Christian South; oil in the South, North using its unfair advantages to Islamise the south while the south is both ‘evengalised and evangelical’. The center could not hold and after 30 years of civil war, they voted to go their separate ways. That separation was, and still is, very difficult and the two new states had to reach some patch-patch agreements on citizenship, currency and investments and contend with quarrels over oil and boundaries. But the new, South, after a few months of ‘possessing their possessions’, and being in their land of milk and honey, is engulfed in a ferocious civil war!

Nigeria is large and diverse but cannot compare with India in any of these dimensions. India had a population of  1.137bn in 2012 (about 1.3bn now) and its registered voters in 2014 stand at 815m. Well, while Nigeria of about 150m people has 36 states and about 20  ‘strong cases’ for more states before the National Assemble, India just had its 29th state on 1/6/14.In Spain, apart from the economic/financial crises, there are also separatist tensions from the wealthy north-eastern region of Catalonia where the  parliament has petitioned  to be allowed to collect their own taxes before sending a share to the central government rather than the other way round as is presently the case.  In effect, in Nigerian parlance, they are demanding for resource control. The options being considered are a velvet divorce, confrontation or a more federal constitution. The issue is that the question of independence has become a part of mainstream debate in both the region and the country. Of course we are all aware of what is happening in Ukrain where Russia-inspired spirit of independence is destablising a small a fragile neighbor. Crimea has ‘voted’ to become a part of Russia but the Government does not want a repeat of that sign and wonder in other parts of Ukrain

The United Kingdom, (which was the ‘Great Britain’ when it manufactured Nigeria) is made up of three consenting ‘members’, England, Scotland and Wales. They have been together for about 307 years and from all indications, the union has worked and benefited every member. Scotland has its own parliament in Edinburg’ the Welsh have their own Welsh Assembly in Cardiff and the people of N/Ireland have their own parliament.  The Scot now say they want total independence  and a referendum has been scheduled in September. It should also be recalled that while Czechoslovakian  leaders, sat, discussed, agreed to separate, had a hand shake and went their separate ways, in 1992, in Yugoslavia, a 10 year old conflict occurred,(1991-2001)

All these instances show that the world is not at peace and that countries have to look for ways of moving forward in peace so as to attain some development and an acceptable standard of living for the people. It is becoming obvious that force has not achieved long-standing solution.  In Nigeria, the argument has been between those who wish that this ‘marriage of strange bedfellows’  be dissolved and those who argue that you don’t go about dissolving a 100-year old marriage. Some have even seen the hand of God (no longer the hand of Lugard) in the whole affair and equated the event of 1914 to a Catholic marriage. We shall take it up from there next week but one thing is certain; it could not have been a Catholic marriage because the partners did not go of their own accord, there as deception on the part of the initiator of the marriage and no Reverend Father was involved! These are enough to annul a marriage ( though the Catholic church does not grant divorce!)-to be continued.

Ik Muo