This is perhaps, a turbulent period for African leaders with the increasing spate of military interventions to truncate democratically elected governments across the continent.
The latest coup which occurred in Niger on July 26, headed by Abdourahmane Tchiani truncated the country’s democratically elected President, Mohamed Bazoum and has triggered a major crisis in the sub-region.
The sub-region bloc, Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS, responded swiftly to the coup in Niger by placing a series of grievous commercial, economic and financial sanctions on the junta.
ECOWAS specifically gave the junta one week to take measures to restore constitutional government in Niger or in the event the authority would take measures to restore democracy in Niger.
A follow up meeting of the West African leaders on Thursday, in Abuja after the expiration of the one week ultimatum to the junta leaders, where the leaders agreed that all options including the use of force remains on the table to restore constitutional order in Niger, and ordered the activation of its standby force.
Although, there are those who say they support any military operation in Niger, but across Nigeria and the sub-region, many are not convinced about the necessity of such intervention by the Tinubu-led ECOWAS, especially considering the implication it would have on the states sharing boundaries with Niger Republic and for the country’s economy at this particular point in time.
Analysts say the country should not allow itself to be drawn into a proxy war by western powers.
Equally, other analysts have advocated cautious optimism rather than rash militarism in response to the Niger crisis. For them, the time is not auspicious for kinetic approach due to its implication not just for West Africa, but also for the entire Africa.
Some experts say the bloc resolution has raised diverse questions about the legality of resorting to the use of force without breaching the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs. As stipulated in Article 2(7) of the UN Charter, this principle, which precludes member states of international institutions from undue interference in their domestic matters, largely defines inter-state relations at sub-regional, regional or global level.
Some Nigerians are baffled that the country could be thinking of military intervention in Niger, despite the obvious burden on the military at home which has affected their capacity to check the spate of terrorism attacks and daily killings across the country, especially in Northern Nigeria.
Since 2020, armed forces have truncated democratically elected governments in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan without much consequence. And the latest took place in the Republic of Niger, bringing the number of unconstitutional regimes to six on the continent.
Unlike the previous ones, the latest coup elicited highly critical responses not just from the ECOWAS, but also from the AU, EU, France, Russia, the US and the UK.
Observers are worried that rather than settle down to reposition the economy to check the rising cost of living crisis due to his reforms since assuming office, President Tinubu could be thinking of invading Niger.
Experts say African countries invading another country in the continent could be bad news for the continent’s quest for development in the 21st century.
“We don’t want to see African countries invading another African country in the 21st century; it is bad news for the development of the continent.
“So, what we want to say is much more proactive measures should be taken instead of military action, but we are in a very difficult time and decisions have to be made based on you know so many factors that must be considered.
“In international diplomacy when you issue an ultimatum you should be ready to enforce that ultimatum and I think any decision on the issue must be taken very carefully.
“I believe that in the circumstances, that you know we’re experiencing war, it may spread across the sub-region”, David Otto, International security analyst who is a certified anti-terrorist specialist said.
Otto further said that any military intervention in Niger may be disastrous for the sub-region than could be imagined, noting ECOWAS should rather impose sanctions on Niger junta leaders for now.
According to him, “On the other hand you know it could be some kind of a message, but when you look at the reactions and the circumstances under which you know we’re now facing; whereby Niger republic has said any military intervention would be disastrous.
“You have situations where other countries like Mali, Burkina Faso Guinea are supporting them.
“They have invoked some kind of an article five; to say an attack or an invasion or any military intervention in Niger republic would mean a declaration of war to these other member states, essentially they are splitting the economic community of West African State into several factions; those that are pro-coup and those that are anti-coup.
“I believe what ECOWAS should have done was to pursue strictly non-kinetic approaches, suspensions, and then to reserve any sanctions to the last card.”
Furthermore, many people within Nigeria and across the sub-region believed invasion of Niger republic may not deter future military intervention and that ECOWAS was not looking at the big picture or tackling genesis of the problem.
They identified the prevalent poverty, irresponsive leadership and foreign domination as part of the problem, noting that Africans were tired of being puppet of the western powers who continue to siphon their natural resources to Europe, leaving the countries in penury.
“There is a growing dissatisfaction in Africa that African leaders are not delivering on the promises of democracy, this was how the Arab Spring started and that’s why we keep saying that; ECOWAS and African Union must come together and improve the living condition of the people,” Daniel Bwala, lawyer and former spokesperson for Atiku Abubakar in the presidential campaign said.
Bwala further noted that ECOWAS may be tempted to join a proxy war in Niger, but noted that the national interest of Nigeria should come first.
“ECOWAS is being tempted into throwing their dogs in a fight. If you look at what is happening in Niger it appears to be the champions league final of what is happening at the moment in Ukraine between Russia and NATO, interest.
“One of the national security interests of a country is the territorial Integrity, but one of the foreign policy of every country is national interest; which is why if you look at most parts of Africa, you see military base disguise in form of assisting militarily, but in actual fact protecting natural resources in those areas.
“Where a coup is bloodless you don’t resolve it by blood. There is no immediate threat against any ECOWAS state. They have established a government, and the US is diplomatically engaging with them, recognising the leader.
“There is an encoded principle, even in coup; that where a coup is bloodless, you don’t resolve it by blood.
“This is one of the problems; we have in Africa where when a leader is blackmailed by the west or when they have a dozier on that leader, then they are likely to blackmail that leader into carrying out their wishes.”
However, emeritus Professor of Political Science, University of Ibadan, Bunmi Ayoade believes Nigeria has the onus to get rid of unconstitutional regimes that threaten other democratically elected governments within the sub-region.
Ayoade identified Nigeria’s internal fragility, which he ascribed to grievous economic and fiscal distortion that threatens citizens’ livelihoods, as a major constraint.
With these highly contentious issues, he contended, the resolve of the authority of the ECOWAS heads of state and government to resort to the use of force may be desirable, but not advisable at this time.
Ayoade doubted the capacity of the ECOWAS members to successfully carry out such an intervention without wider consequences on African peace and security.
Olubunmi Odesanya, communication expert and politician, said, Nigeria’s attempt at intervening in the Nigerien coup is against the UN Convention, noting that it is unthinkable that a country that is battling internal security challenges wants to poke-nose in the internal affairs of another country in the form of war.
According to Odesanya, “Granted that the coup in Niger is condemnable, Nigeria is not financially strong to prosecute and execute a war at this time.
“Recall that, just yesterday, over 15 people were killed in Plateau State. Nigeria cannot be grappling with internal Security challenges and want to go to war in Niger.
“Furthermore, ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African State; it was set up purely for Economic integration of West African States and not to interfere in the internal affairs of another Country.
Read also: Niger Coup: ECOWAS rejects the three-year timeframe
“It is important to state that the Niger Republic borders about seven Northern States in Nigeria and the effect of the war impacts negatively on those states.
“Other ECOWAS States will be minimally affected and their financial contribution to the prosecution will be next to nothing. Finally, it is needless to fight a proxy war that will involve NATO on one side and Russia and China on the other.
“We believe this war, if prosecuted, will be a distraction from the election tribunal cases and an attempt by Tinubu to have an escape route from the stolen mandate. The Nigerian Senate has already rejected the request to go to war, acting contrary to that will be unconstitutional.”
Meanwhile, after a meeting of defence chiefs of member states in the Ghanaian capital, the sub-regional bloc warned that that it will not hesitate to invade Niger Republic, if all efforts to reverse the coup in the country fail.
The defence chiefs had met over recently to strategise on the next line of action on Niger and discuss details of the standby force.
“Let no one be in doubt that if everything else fails, the valiant forces of West Africa are ready to answer to the call of duty.
“By all means available, constitutional order will be restored in the country,” ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, said.
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