Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu will now have to decide if he has the backing of the majority of his citizens to go to war with Niger. He will also have to decide if he possesses the moral armament to wage war against his country’s vast northern neighbour.
Even more importantly, he will have to decide if his troops are fit to go to war.
Rebuffed by the ruling junta who disdainfully ignored the deadline of the Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) to reinstate Mohamed Bazoum, the ousted president of Niger, or face the threat of military intervention, and snubbed by his country’s Senate, which advised him to seek a diplomatic solution to the imbroglio, Tinubu will have to decide his next steps — next steps that will make or mar his authority as a regional statesman.
The Nigerian leader faces credibility issues in his own country as its top court carries out an inquest into his electoral victory in presidential elections early this year. Nigeria’s opposition parties and their supporters say Tinubu stole victory and are asking the court to annul his election.
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“What happens if the military guys in Niger call the bluff? I think it will likely erode the power and authority of the heads of states of ECOWAS, if they had any,” a retired senior military officer said.
The deadline for the ultimatum passed on Sunday with no sign of any armed intervention or mobilisation in countries bordering Niger.
The Nigerian leader will either now have to proceed with a full-scale military onslaught against the putschists in Niamey to save his face, or back down from the roiling threats he’d issued against them and lose his credibility.
Political stability in ECOWAS is in total jeopardy and it will have consequences for Tinubu’s government and Nigeria itself.
There have been loud voices against sending Nigerian soldiers to fight in Niger. Most Nigerians do not want their young men to be sent to an unjust war. More than 12 years of internecine fighting in the country’s North-East has left the majority of Nigerians weary of war.
There is a strong aversion to war in Africa’s most populous nation, whose citizens are struggling to make ends meet amidst growing poverty and unprecedented economic failures.
Read also: Nigeria risks losing $1.3bn in trade to Niger border closure
Napoleon Bali, a Nigerian senator and retired 2-star Air Force General, said if the Nigerian leader decides to go to war with Niger, “it is going to be catastrophic. We already have refugees in Niger. Nigeria will suffer seriously because we will employ military contractors, who will feed on us. It is not going to be easy. Remember how Russia thought it would overrun Ukraine in just a few days, but the war is still raging? You don’t go to war and think you know the end. We have a long border with the Niger Republic, and it will not be easy. We have Boko Haram and other terrorist issues there.”
He added: “If there is war, the military in Niger is in control and they have all the military assets at their disposal. The leadership will open the armoury and non-state actors will take advantage of the situation. The rich will employ military contractors. If you are fighting one country, you are indirectly fighting other countries.
“Again, I am from a military background, and we have a treaty that the Niger Republic can chase a criminal into Nigeria without taking any permission. Niger has very well cooperated with Nigeria in the war against Boko-Haram and if we declare war against Niger, it is going to sever our relationship with Niger. More so, the war will destabilise some northern states.”
Despite the boiling threats from the Nigerian president though, it is clear that ECOWAS is not ready to stage a full-scale intervention in Niger.
“Where are the troops?” a retired military intelligence officer asked. “The ECOMOG that performed ‘miracles’ in Liberia and Sierra Leone was more than 90 percent Nigerian soldiers. If ECOWAS is going to militarily intervene in Niger, I can assure you that it would most likely be 95 percent Nigeria soldiers that will also be launched into battle from Nigerian soil. I ask: ‘Do we even have enough for our internal crisis plus Boko Haram?”
The Wall Street Journal, this week, reported that an unnamed senior commander from one of the ECOWAS countries signalled that the bloc was still unprepared for a full-scale operation. “For the moment, we need to build up the strength of our units before taking part in such a military action,” he said, adding that its success hinges on good preparation.
The bloc has taken an unusually hard stance on Niger while allowing the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso to thrive unimpeded.
As the ECOWAS deadline passed, the junta in Niamey swore to defend the country’s territorial integrity.
ECOWAS itself is facing the threat of balkanisation as Mali and Burkina Faso have vowed to come to Niger’s defence if needed.
“If Nigeria had remained a civilian democracy since 1979, we would have stopped this rash of cowboys now talking nonsense and running around Putin. Not today, as we can see clearly. We have neither the credibility nor the capacity. If anything, this situation exemplifies how far we have fallen, with our utterly embarrassing inability to influence events in our ECOWAS neighbours,” an international security expert who pleaded anonymity said.
He added: “We have no idea how disastrous this Niger debacle has been for our country. Better that it remains that way. Midnight yesterday (Sunday deadline) was confirmation, if any was needed, that Nigeria is utterly toothless on the international scene. If nothing else indicates the consequences of 45 years of waste, mindless theft, lack of insight and foresight, the anti-intellectualism and absence of rigorous thinking and rapier focus on Nigeria’s national interests and national security that has characterized the behaviour of almost all our past Administrations, this debacle in Niger does so eloquently.
Read also: Niger republic coup: Between ECOMOG army and United States military base
“How long will it take to build back Nigeria’s credibility in our ECOWAS sub-region? Until we build back our economic productivity and social cohesion, our military capabilities and proactive foreign policy. Until then, we will continue to roar but the only sounds the world will hear will be the mewling of an anaemic pussy cat.”
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