How many are we in Nigeria? (2)

On a general note, there have been cases of apathy on the part of the citizenry towards the census exercise. But census taking  depends  for  its  success  above  all,  on  the willing  co-operation  of  the  people  counted,  and occasionally that  co-operation  is  extremely  difficult  to  obtain in some parts of the country.

Certain superstitious beliefs amongst the people, which is common with most Nigerian tribes, equally affected the conduct of past censuses and the accuracy of the results obtained. In several places, tribal people were  reluctant  to  reveal  the  number  of  their  children as  they  believed that doing so would bring some ill-luck to the family.

Accessibility problems were equally encountered in some past census especially in some remote rural communities as well as the coastal or riverine areas. In some places rough and difficult-to-access terrains made the job of enumerators quite Herculean. 

Similarly, in several past censuses, many settlements were reported to have been omitted. For instance, about 539 settlements were said to have been left out in the 1952/53 census, 47 settlements were not counted in the 1963 exercise while 95 settlements were left out in the 1973 census. Residents of some settlements that were counted cried foul alleging under-counting of their settlements or over-counting of some other settlements. As a face-saving measure, the populations of some of the settlements that were not counted were simply arbitrarily estimated by the census authorities.  

In the document, ‘Everybody’s Guide to the Nigeria Census’, the Population Association of Nigeria summarised the reasons for the failure of past censuses in the country. Such reasons include (i) Suspicious, uncooperative and sometimes hostile attitude of Nigerian citizens to censuses, (ii) the wrong notion that counting children affects infants and child mortality, (iii) Invasion of individual privacy, (iv) racism, (v) diversion from economic development efforts – it is sometimes alleged that census taking is a diversionary tactic to avoid the real issue of social and economic development and that money spent on census should have been spent instead on development projects, (vi) many persons did not agree to have their wives and children counted since the number of wives and children was a measure of a man’s wealth, (vii) it is suspected that it will enable tax collectors demand heavier taxes from persons who had many wives and children, (viii) it is also held that, the superstitious belief in census brought about ill-luck, famine or misfortune, (ix) shortage of qualified personnel to undertake actual house-to-house enumeration, (x) lack of adequate fund, (xi) problem of communication and transportation, such as in the riverine areas, and (xii) over-politicisation (population has been tied to revenue-sharing, membership of the legislatures, federal appointment and patronage).  

A combination of the above-mentioned challenges has contributed to make it rather impossible to obtain authentic population figures for the local government councils, states and invariably the entire country. 

 Why census figures are falsified

 As already noted, the  previous  censuses  in  Nigeria  had  been marred  by  cases  of  inflated  figures. In some cases, the population of each local government area, state and invariably the entire country had been fixed by mere speculation. One question, then, that begs for urgent attention is: why are census figures falsified in Nigeria? 

In a report on the 2006 census process, the then Chairman of NPC, Sa-mu’ila Danko Makama lamented that, “even before the census was conducted, highly placed individuals and organisations in several states had determined to the decimal point the population of a particular area or region… Almost all these wild guesstimates apparently were based on their perceptions mostly out of ignorance or possibly ulterior motives to suit their agenda.”

In Nigeria people see population as a political weapon, indeed a most potent bargaining power. It is commonly believed that population figures are used in federal resource allocation; thus the higher the number, the more government industries, funds, civil service slots, amenities and infrastructural facilities an area will attract. Consequently, governors would prefer to inflate the population of each state so they can get more federal allocation. Moreover, higher population figures are interpreted to mean that an ethnic group or region can legitimately ask for additional states and local government areas, or more seats in the National Assembly especially the House of Representatives. This is so because census figures in Nigeria play a major role in political redistricting for each of the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Owing to the ethnic and religious sentiments we often attach to census figures in this country, we’ve had situations where people find it quite imperative to inflate the figures of their regions or religion while at the same time try to even reduce those of others. 

  Nna O. Uluocha