Discretion versus risk aversion

Tomorrow is my 71st birthday but the day is committed to the Global Risk Assessment and Management Conference at a top secret location. At least we thought it was a secret until CNN announced it as “Breaking News” this morning. Apparently, the leakage is the handiwork of Edward Snowden. This guy simply cannot keep any secrets!

Anyway, I may just as well let you know that the focus this year is on “CALM WATERS” (and where to find it in a world that is in constant turmoil and revolt). Even before we commence business, Professor John Bedford has created a buzz by raising the following issues:

•Incidentally, I think they have tricked Obama into softening the US stance on Cuba. The embargo and the non-diplomatic relationship most certainly are absurd anachronisms but they have helped the Castro dictators (and now their sons and grandsons) to consolidate their hold over the country and steal fortunes at the expense of their people. Now these despots have cleverly played on Obama’s desperate need for a foreign policy legacy. Cuba is an obvious selection for Obama, with minimal international repercussions. The country has only 10m people and is economically, socially and militarily crippled. Raul Castro will also now win reformist plaudits, even though he has murdered thousands of his own citizens and completely bankrupted the land with phenomenally incompetent and restrictive, repressive economic and social policies. And what is more, he will not loosen his grip at all, but just allow funds to come in from the USA into his own coffers. Now

that the Venezuelans have (or will soon) cut off the supplies of cheap oil and cheap credit, he needed to find another sugar daddy and Iran (with whom overtures were made over the last five years) and North Korea (his close ally) are much riskier than Uncle Sam himself.

• China’s silent army: A first-hand report by two Spanish (Chinese-speaking) journalists describing how China’s economic model (as per the Beijing Consensus) has overwhelmed certain communities worldwide with dodgy practices and a de facto ‘social, commercial and financial’ invasion of whole swathes of local businesses and even provinces, often in cahoots with corrupt and venal local politicians at the expense of their own citizens.

The conveners of the conference have also sent me the following quotations by Martin Luther King Jr: (i) “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” (ii) “Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.” (iii) “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (iv) “We must live together as brothers or perish as fools.” (v) “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”

Also, participants have been provided with a video of the grotesque plight of fourteen-year-old George Stinney who was hanged in the US seventy years ago for the murder of two white girls, Mary Emma Thames (7) and Betty June Binnicker (11).

Regarding the delicate matter of strategic advice and selection of options, we cannot afford to ignore the incisive observation of George Will, the Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist of the Washington Post who recently reminded us thus: “In 1910, forty peaceful European years after the France-Prussian War, Norman Angell’s book ‘The Great Illusion’ became a best-seller by arguing that war between developed industrial countries would be prohibitively expensive, hence futile, and hence unlikely.” It took only four years for the First World War (1914 to 1918) to prove that he was totally wrong.

Angell’s theory was an early version of what foreign-policy analyst James Mann calls “The Starbucks Fallacy”, the theory that when people become accustomed to a plurality of coffee choices, they will successfully demand political pluralism. This theory has been wounded, if not slain, by facts, two of which are China and Vietnam. Both combine relatively open economic systems with political systems that remain closed.

Regardless, there was much to take away from the Global Risk Assessment and Management Conference held in Luxembourg in December 2010. I was overwhelmed by the dexterity, robustness and versatility of the computer model on Zimboda and the imminent threats to its security. What was truly amazing was that much of the information and data which our own country vigorously classifies as secret was in fact readily available on internet! This is notwithstanding the sensitive nature of such detailed information. I was sufficiently alarmed to phone our contacts in government in order to alert them that our nation was in peril. They did not appear to be bothered.

Anyway, I must digress and record that we lodged at the historic Auberge Knowlton hotel which was founded in 1849. However, what is far more relevant was that seated in the cosy conference room were a magnificent array of strategic thinkers.

The Senior Citizens (ex-partners of KPMG who are still awaiting their gratuity and pension) could not but marvel at the professionalism, thoroughness and commitment of the lead speakers. They had all the facts and figures at their fingertips supported with charts and flowline of global trouble spots. They were the ones who reminded us that KPMG’s mantra was “Our people are our greatest assets”. So how come those who had served the firm meritoriously from 1970 to 2004 did not even merit a Christmas/New Year card? They threw us off-balance by reminding us that Anthony Ani was a signatory to the first KPMG International agreement signed in 1988 and later became our minister of finance. He too did not receive a Christmas/New Year card! Perhaps former military President Ibrahim Babangida had a point when he declared on CNN (‘Inside Africa’): “We are saints compared with our successors.”

Anyway, back to the issue at hand. The critical question was on how prepared our nation was to deal with insurgency, Islamic fundamentalism, kidnapping, suicide bombers and other security challenges. Sadly, Zimboda was scored very poorly in the following critical areas: security infrastructure; awareness of threats; public enlightenment; rescue operations; training; equipment; communication; inter-agency rivalry; motivation/morale; transparency and accountability.

Far more worrying were other sensitive matters which I am not at liberty to disclose – especially as regards the smuggling of arms and ammunition, international affiliation amongst insurgents (especially the link with Al Qaeda, Al Shabaab etc), indoctrination, widespread poverty, lack of education, unemployment, hunger and starvation, etc. All these, combined with religious intolerance, longstanding tribal rivalry and deep-seated ethnic jingoism, were more than sufficient to place our nation on full alert. Unfortunately, we did nothing. We were a nation in denial then and we still are in denial regarding what to believe and who not to believe.

Clearly, we had a hot potato on our hands. The stark choices before us were to either plug into the national malaise of inertia or take matters into our own hands in recognition of our patriotic duty. This was what prompted the conference on “Security in the Air, Land and Sea” which J.K. Randle Professional Services hosted at the Eko Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos on Thursday, 16th December, 2010.

J.K Randle