Anglo-Nigeria relations: The next 100 years

I believe it would not be out of place for us to seize this auspicious occasion to reflect on the ebbs and low of the relationship between Nigeria and Britain. Some of the events that come to mind are truly profound and earthshaking but we shall confine ourselves to: (i) The attempt by agents of the Nigerian government to abduct late Umaru Dikko from Sussex Gardens, Bayswater, London, in broad daylight – right in the midst of a busy street on 6th July, 1984; (ii) The forceful seizure and subsequent nationalisation of British Petroleum (BP) in 1984; (iii) The recent denouncement of greedy Nigerian politicians and corrupt government officials by Richard Branson which led to the collapse of Virgin Nigeria; (iv) The suspension of all British Airways flights to Nigeria during the military regime of General Sani Abacha in 1996.

Perhaps we should add as a tragic footnote that about a year ago, Peter Carter, the British Deputy High Commissioner to Nigeria, was returning from a trip to London when he collapsed close to the carousel at Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Ikeja. This was during our virulent Ebola crisis and, sadly, no one came to his rescue out of the all-consuming fear of the dreaded Ebola. It is little solace that he was a victim of a mild heart attack and his life would have been saved if only the defibrillators in the airport were in good working condition.

I have very good reasons for my hesitation and scepticism about predicting Anglo-Nigerian relationship for the next 100 years. First of all, we cannot but observe that those grandees who invade our shores to reassure us that by year 2020 (or 2030) Nigeria will be the 10th-largest economy in the world insist on being paid their fees in dollars (or other hard currency) NOW rather than wait until their forecast/prediction is actualised in year 2020 (or 2030)!

Besides, about 20 years ago I played a very minor role (almost negligible) when I was chairman of KPMG Nigeria and chairman of KPMG Africa in the endeavour of the then chairman of KPMG International, Colin Sharman, to predict the events that would define our future as chartered accountants in the next millennium. The team that Colin assembled travelled all over the world and produced a massive report which was distributed to the members of the KPMG International Council of which I was a member.

We felt that he had done an excellent job. However, alas, there was no mention of some of the profound events that have since defined the global landscape. I refer to the hijacking of planes; suicide bombings; the emergence of Bin Laden; Al Queda; ISIS or Boko Haram. Neither was there any mention of mobile phones; sons; e-mails; smart phones; ATMs; re-usable space rocket launchers; stem cells; in vitro fertilisation; Facebook; Instagram.

Realistically, the best we can hope for is a more robust and perhaps more equal relationship between Britain and Nigeria based on mutual respect, trust and confidence in spheres beyond trade to embrace culture, tourism, education, and the faithfulness of the Almighty regardless of colour, gender or ethnicity. Time and space will not permit us to dwell on reverse psychology, capital flight (from Nigeria to Britain), the ability of Nigeria to respond to external shocks to its terms of trade; precarious price of oil; the linkage between productivity, output, employment and poverty; and our addiction to policy reversals; etc.   Regardless of whichever way we toss the coin to predict the future, there is no getting away from Nigeria’s grievous infrastructure deficit, particularly power, roads and housing. All these are in addition to our broken public finance.

Also, we have to contend with the mismatch between our Gross Domestic Product [GDP] growths rates of 2.3 percent and our teeming population that is exploding at the rate of 2.5 percent, one of the fastest in the world.

For several decades Nigeria was hooked to the “Command and Control Regime” under successive military governments while Britain had adopted free market economics and liberalisation which are the basic ingredients of competitive market economics. Our challenges stretch beyond politics and economics to religion as we stare (and hover) on the brink/precipice of moral collapse. Willy-nilly Nigeria is starting the second 100 years of its Anglo-Nigerian relationship with the prospect of becoming the third-largest in the world by 2040 without the certainty of achieving the 10th largest economy.

Anyway, the late prime minister of Britain, Winston Churchill, has assured us that the empire of the future will be empires of the mind. So we must factor this critical element into the equation and algorithm of the future of Nigeria and Britain.

At numerous fora in different parts of the world, I have had the privilege of occupying a ring side seat where those in the main arena argued vehemently that as a nation, Nigeria has lost its way. Regardless, the next 100 years will afford Nigeria a fresh opportunity to forge a new relationship with Britain based on convergence and mutuality of interest as well as shared values – even a common destiny. However, we have to think smart and act with boldness.

Ironically, my own generation was reared and nurtured by the prison of Lagos-London relationship.  My first passport stated very clearly that I was “A citizen of the Colony of Lagos and The Dominions”! Hence, I did not require a visa to enter London or anywhere else in the British Empire. Incidentally, in 1951 the population of Lagos was only 431,000. A friend of mine Ade Popoola was pleasantly surprised when on arrival in London in 1964, his position as a “First Class” clerk in Lagos entitled him to exactly the same rank in the British Civil Service into which he was recruited promptly.

It may be tempting to canvass that Nigeria should enter into peace talks with Britain in order to restore the glorious past when landlords in London boldly advertised “No blacks (except Nigerians); No Irish; No dogs”! However, Yitzak Rabin, the former prime minister, has cautioned: “You do not negotiate peace with your friends.” Hopefully, the British High Commissioner, Paul Arkwright, will confirm that Britain is still a friend of Nigeria.

Finally, let us seize this moment and paraphrase the incisive observation of Winston Churchill: “This is not the end (of the hundred years). It is not even the beginning. It is only the end of the beginning of the next hundred years (of Anglo-Nigerian relationship).”

The last word belongs to the Nnamdi Azikiwe, the first president of Nigeria, who pleaded with Ahmadu Bello, the premier of Northern Nigeria:  “Let us forget our differences”. However, Ahmadu Bello insisted: “No.  Let us understand our differences”. The subject of their anguish was not Anglo-Nigerian relationship. Rather, it was our beloved nation, Nigeria.

It is self-evident that the current status of the relationship between Nigeria and Britain is somewhat akin to an open marriage whereby each is free to pursue other interests and partners with no sense of guilt or remorse. The next 100 years would require faithfulness and real commitment by both Nigeria and Britain – for better or worse; and for richer or poorer!

Being excerpts of an address at the annual Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce Dinner at the Grand Ball Room, Eko Hotel and Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos, Friday, December 4, 2015.

J.K Randle