ANALYSIS: Obi’s candidacy set to change how Nigerians vote

The candidacy of Peter Obi, the standard-bearer of the Labour Party in the forthcoming presidential election, is on track to change how Nigerians vote.

Usman Ayegba, an international relations and political economy expert, said the election will be different from the previous ones conducted in the country.

“This election would be one of the fiercely contested in Nigeria’s history. No one can say with certainty who will emerge victorious, Ayegba said. “Ceteris paribus, I have a serious doubt if we are going to have a clear winner at the first ballot.”

One of Ayegba’s reasons for this is the rising popularity of the Obi among the youth, who constitute a large percentage of the voters, and certain unseen forces in the background.

He said: “Given the type of street credibility greeting the Obi Movement in this election, especially by the Nigerian young folks, it is not going to be business as usual for both the APC and PDP.

“Save the 1979 presidential election where Awolowo’s UPN, Zik’s NPP and Shagari’s NPN made it a three-horse race, history of presidential election in Nigeria is suggestive of two-horse race. This time around, it would either be a three- or four-horse race (if you add the Rabiu Kwankwaso’s factor to those of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi). Certainly, Kwankwasiyya is going to be a force to look out for in Kano, even though APC is the ruling party there.”

Dominic Okoliko, who holds a doctoral degree in Public and Development Management from Stellenbosch University. South Africa, believes Obi’s emergence as a candidate in the election “strikingly distinguishes the 2023 election from previous ones”.

“Observers of this election can agree that whether Obi wins the election or not, he will be remembered for giving the establishment parties a run for their monies and extreme influence. Until his emergence, a third force unsettling the status quo was a mere wish,” he said.

Okoliko said between May 2022 and today, a relatively unknown party and a candidate that was rejected by a major political party as a lightweight has become not just a major presidential candidate in a three-horse race. “Obi is the top choice among all the candidates in several polls,” he added.

Most of the polls released so far have tipped the former governor of Anambra State to win the election. He was predicted as the winner in all the three polls commissioned by the ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited.

Another perspective that distorts the norm in Nigerian elections is that it is a tussle between an experienced contender, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who is running for president for the sixth time, and first-timers, including Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Obi; and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria’s Peoples Party (NNPP).

Will experience count and give Atiku an easy ride to victory?

Temitope Musowo, a public policy analyst, is of the view that this may not be the case, given the APC candidate’s clout in the North.

“Though Atiku has similar chances, Tinubu has penetrated the North at the level that Atiku may not be able to get those states,” he said.

This position highlights the importance of considering where the candidate of the ruling party will get his votes. An analysis of the political terrain and sentiments shows that Tinubu’s presidential ambition has the highest odds stacked against it.

In the South-South, leaders have publicly endorsed Obi, and the South-East is the home zone of Obi.

He has made significant inroads into the North-Central (Middle-Belt), home to many Christians who have been persecuted by Boko Haram and herdsmen. Benue is a clear example of the commitment and prevailing sentiments of the people of the zone to Obi’s Presidency.

That’s three zones out of six where it will be tough for Tinubu to win or get the required 25 percent of the votes cast.

The remaining zones are the North-East, North-West and South-West. The South-West is the most educated of the three remaining zones whose citizens are a large swathe of Christians and are literate enough to make independent choices. The South-West, especially Lagos, it’s a battle between Tinubu and Obi.

The Afenifere, a socio-cultural organisation of the Yoruba people; Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria, and other influential and prominent Yorubas both at home and abroad have openly endorsed Obi and have been working to actualise his Presidency.

Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket has been rejected by the Christian Association of Nigeria, the umbrella body for Christians in Nigeria, and the implication is that Christians are less likely to vote for the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

North-East states of Adamawa, Taraba, Borno, Gombe, Bauchi and Yola present an herculean task for Tinubu with the huge Christian population, and the Atiku factor standing against him. Adamawa is a split of 50/50 Chriatian-Muslim population and also Atiku’s home state.

Over the last five election cycles (since 2003), Muhammadu Buhari’s ambition united the core North (North-West and North-East zones). Also, he won all the states in the North-West and lost only two out of six in the North-East in the 2019 presidential race.

Now that Buhari is not on the ballot, the battle for his millions of voters will be among Atiku and Shettima, the former governor of Borno State and Tinubu’s running mate.

In Taraba, the governor, Darius Ishaku, has already made public statements that his people are pro-Obi, thus leaving the Atiku/Okowa candidacy as the top contender for what remains of the vote here.

Borno will be interesting for two reasons. It is the home of Shettima, the running mate of Tinubu. The challenge for APC here is that Borno already has a population deeply disenchanted with the poor performance of APC.

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It was in Maiduguri that the convoy of President Buhari was first stoned; the state also has a huge Christian population.

Will the Christians of Borno forget the kidnapping of their children in Chibok by Boko Haram, the incessant bombings and vote for a Muslim-Muslim ticket?

Gombe is similar to Borno, with a huge Christian population. Will the failure of the APC government of Buhari and the Christian vote be sufficient for the people of Gombe to give Obi the needed 25 percent of the vote cast?

Yobe will likely be a fight between Atiku and APC, with Obi having a slim chance here, if any at all.

The North West states are APC and Hausa Muslim’s homes and strongholds. This is what is called the core Muslim North. It has Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Zamfara.

It is this zone that provoked the Muslim-Muslim ticket, and APC is expected to do well here, not on account of Tinubu’s popularity but because it is Buhari’s zone (Katsina) and the Islam factor. This is also the most educationally disadvantaged zone in the country and the electorate is easily manipulated by religion.

Except in Kaduna and Kano, Tinubu’s APC is expected to win the North-West by a landslide. Kaduna has a 50/50 Christian/Muslim population and the Christian clergy are already mobilised for Obi; they have promised to deliver one million votes to him. It is also the only state in the region, where Obi has a high chance of getting 25 percent of the vote cast.

Kano promises to be a battle between Kwankwaso and APC. He is a native son, and his home state is likely to be the only one he can win for his presidential ambition. Recently, the PDP collapsed its structure into the NNPP in Kano.

In Abuja, the APC did not emerge victorious in the last presidential election and there’s little to no indication it will do so at the polls on Saturday. It has one of the largest bases of ‘Obidients’, implying Obi will have a landslide victory in the capital city.